Israel Didn’t Achieve A Single One Of Its Five Goals In Full During The Third Gulf War

Israel couldn’t fulfill any these goals on its own, all of which required US assistance, but the US pulled out of the war after achieving some its goals instead of paying much higher costs to pursue the maximum ones that Israel still wanted.

Israel is the biggest loser of the Third Gulf War as was concluded here, the sentiment of which was earlier expressed by Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid and Israeli media in response to reports about the terms of the planned Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran. None of its five goals were achieved in full, but four of them were partially achieved, though the progress on three of them could be reversed with time. Here’s what Israel wanted to accomplish and why it didn’t succeed:

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1. Destroy Iran’s Drone & Missile Programs

These interconnected capabilities have made Iran a regional force to be reckoned with. They’ve also collectively inflicted unprecedented damage on Israel during the last two wars. While both programs were degraded to an unclear extent throughout the course of the past year, neither was completely eliminated, thus meaning that these threats persist. The US won’t shoulder the financial, military, and opportunity costs connected with totally destroying these programs and Israel can’t do so on its own.

2. Denuclearize Iran

Credible reports indicate that the MoU will start a separate negotiation process over Iran’s nuclear program, and there’s equally credible talk that Iran will retain at least some level of its capabilities. Even if these are insufficient for ever building a nuke, especially if some degree of international oversight is agreed to, it still makes security-conscious (critics would claim security-obsessed) Israel uneasy. As with the above, the US won’t shoulder the costs required for achieving this goal and Israel can’t go it alone.

3. Replace The Islamic Republic

Regime change is the third goal that was only partly achieved, and this one through joint US-Israeli assassinations of leading political figures. The Islamic Republic’s system still remains intact, however, even though it’s been tweaked in a relatively more “moderate” direction. That said, the state still retains its hatred of Israel, though it’s relatively more friendly to the US. The US is now content with the new ruling arrangement, however, which is why it won’t “finish the job” that Israel can’t complete on its own.

4. Break The “Resistance Axis”

Moving along, Israel wanted to destroy Iran’s regional alliance network, the “Resistance Axis”. Like the preceding goals, this one was also achieved in part, but Hezbollah still survives while the Houthis appear as strong as ever despite some of their leaders being assassinated by Israel last August. “Resistance”-aligned Iraqi militias are still around too. The US dislikes all three groups but not enough to actively help Israel destroy them. Without the US’ assistance, Israel must either accept eternal war or a cold peace.

5. “Balkanize” The Islamic Republic

This final goal wasn’t achieved to any extent after the Kurds failed to fulfill their envisaged role, though the reasons for this remain the subject of debate, from JD Vance reportedly tipping off Erdogan so that he’d then pressure Trump against this to Trump claiming that the Kurds kept US arms for themselves. Likewise, hostilities between Azerbaijan and Iran didn’t erupt either, thus averting the scenario of a Baku-backed Azeri uprising in the north that could have served as a tripwire for Turkish intervention too.

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Of the goals that Israel achieved in part, only Iran’s denuclearization is irreversible, while Iran might gradually replenish its drones and missiles, return to a more “hardline” ruling clique (albeit still relatively US-friendly), and strengthen its “Resistance” allies. Israel couldn’t fulfill any these goals on its own, all of which required US assistance, but the US pulled out of the war after achieving some its goals instead of paying much higher costs to pursue the maximum ones that Israel still wanted. This led to Israel’s loss.