Israel’s Re-Occupation Of Gaza, For However Long It May Last, Is Likely A Fait Accompli

There’s been a deluge of fake news since the onset of the latest Israeli-Hamas war alleging that the Arabs, Hezbollah, Turkiye, and/or even Russia are/is prepared to wage a full-fledged war against Israel in defense of the Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s declaration earlier this week that “Israel will, for an indefinite period, will have the overall security responsibility” in Gaza prompted Jordanian Foreign Minister Safadi to state that “Jordan rejects any talk of post-war Gaza administration through Arab or non-Arab forces.” The problem is that his Hashemite Kingdom lacks the political will to avert this scenario. In fact, no Arab country has thus far done anything tangible to stop what’s popularly described as Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians.

Israel’s re-occupation of Gaza, for however long it may last, is therefore likely a fait accompli since it’s unimaginable that the Arabs and/or Turkiye will go to war to prevent this when they won’t even credibly threaten such to stop the violence there by war if need be. For instance, Egypt could dispatch troops across the Rafah crossing into Gaza to stop Israel’s southward advance, but it doesn’t want to reassume responsibility for this region plus it’s afraid that such a move could trigger a larger war by miscalculation.

Even Hezbollah chief Nasrallah very strongly implied reluctance to order his group to commence an all-out offensive in support of Hamas and the Gazan Palestinians who they purport to represent, likely due to his tacit acknowledgement of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) as was argued in detail here. These observations aren’t intended to impugn the integrity of Jordan, Egypt, Hezbollah, or whoever else, but simply to clarify the state of affairs as it objectively exists for the benefit of everyone else.

There’s been a deluge of fake news since the onset of the latest Israeli-Hamas war alleging that the Arabs, Hezbollah, Turkiye, and/or even Russia are/is prepared to wage a full-fledged war against Israel in defense of the Palestinians, but none have thus far come to fruition. Rather, the world sees that none of those same actors has the political will to even cut off energy or any other exports to Israel. The absolute most that they’ll do is recall their ambassadors, but plotting war against it is out of the picture.

That’s not to argue that they should risk World War III, which could easily ensue if any state went to war against Israel, nor that eschewing this scenario amounts to abandoning the Palestinians. Russia’s policy of principled neutrality and associated ceasefire efforts, which Foreign Minister Lavrov elaborated on late last month and were analyzed here, are indisputably positive contributions. There are limits to how much they can shape the conflict, but it’s better that such policies exist than if they didn’t at all.

Keeping in mind the state of affairs as was explained in this analysis, the Jordanian Foreign Minister’s statement that his Hashemite Kingdom “rejects any talk of post-war Gaza administration through Arab or non-Arab forces” is just a bunch of hot air, and it’s unlikely to be backed up by the credible threat of force. That country and all others will only complain in the event that this becomes a fait accompli as expected, and some Arab states might even participate in such an administration at the end of the day.