It Really Doesn’t Matter Anymore Whether Serbia Joins NATO

It already gave the bloc transit rights and immunity for its members a decade ago, is actively carrying out a pro-Western military pivot through increased arms purchases from them instead of from its traditional Russian supplier, and is even arming Ukraine.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic recently said that “As far as NATO is concerned, we are maintaining consistent relations, but we will not join NATO and will preserve our neutral status.” The long-running context concerns his claims that Western-connected protests against him over the years are driven in part by the ulterior motive of accelerating Serbia’s membership in NATO if he’s deposed. While compelling, and there’s arguably some truth to it, it really doesn’t matter anymore whether Serbia joins.

In fact, it hasn’t mattered for a decade already since Serbia “ratified an agreement giving the alliance freedom of movement across Serbia and granting its members diplomatic immunity” in early 2016, which prompted widespread protests that ultimately didn’t lead to that agreement being rescinded. Serbia has also had an “Individual Partnership Action Plan” with NATO since the year prior in 2015. It then began aligning its policies even closer with NATO’s since the start of Russia’s special operation.

It regularly votes against Russia on Ukraine at the UNGA, is actively carrying out a pro-Western military pivot through increased arms purchases from them instead of from its traditional Russian supplier, is considering sanctioning Russia if EU membership is “in sight”, and is even arming Ukraine. Whether one believes that Vucic is doing this voluntarily or under duress, the fact of the matter is that the aforesaid policies are veritably in force. Here are five background briefings to bring readers up to speed:

* 25 December 2023: “The West Isn’t Content With Vucic’s Many Concessions And Wants Full Control Over Serbia”

* 11 August 2024: “The Serbian Government Is Inadvertently Responsible For The Latest Color Revolution Intrigue”

* 14 January 2025: “Serbia’s Top General Hinted At Carrying Out A Pro-Western Military Pivot Under Sanctions Duress”

* 9 August 2025: “Interpreting Serbia’s Mixed Signals On Whether It’ll Sanction Russia”

* 11 November 2025: “Serbia’s Continued Arming Of Ukraine Risks Rupturing Relations With Russia”

At this point, Serbia already functions as a de facto NATO member after the abovementioned agreement from 2016 gave the bloc transit rights through its territory as well as immunity for its members and then Serbia began arming Ukraine. These advance NATO’s interests by facilitating its military-logistics across the Balkans and helping Ukraine kill more Russians, which are more important to the bloc than Serbia committing to mutually defend its members or sanctioning Russia in solidarity with them.

The likelihood of Serbia ever joining NATO is low anyhow since that scenario is taboo after NATO bombed Serbia in 1999, during which time the Autonomous Province of Kosovo & Metohija was severed from the state, thus inflicting immense spiritual harm on Serbs since that’s the cradle of their civilization. While some in NATO might still think that this is possible and want to pursue it for symbolism’s sake, it’s objectively unlikely, which Vucic knows but he brings it up anyhow at times to rally support for his rule.

For reasons of geography after becoming landlocked and surrounded by either NATO members or de facto ones like Bosnia, Serbia doesn’t have much of an alternative to cooperating with NATO, but it also doesn’t have to go as far as Vucic has through 2016’s deal and arming Ukraine. Nevertheless, there’s little chance that he’d be replaced through the polls or through whichever other means by someone who’d take a harder line towards NATO, with his most likely replacements being even more pro-NATO.