It’s A Smart Move For Russia To Strike Ukrainian Draft Centers
This could raise the chances for a breakthrough somewhere along the front, help to decisively shift domestic public opinion against the conflict, and thus make it easier for “deep state” forces to conspire against Zelensky.
The Financial Times (FT) reported that “Russia attacks Ukraine’s draft offices in effort to undermine armed forces”, which drew attention to its latest strategy nearly three and a half years into the conflict. What began as a special operation quickly transformed into a proxy war that’s since become a “race of logistics”/“war of attrition”. Accordingly, without Trump coercing Zelensky to comply with Putin’s demands for peace and given his promise to send more “defensive weapons”, the conflict will continue.
It therefore makes sense that Russia would finally target Ukraine’s military logistics, particularly its draft centers, with a view towards preventing Kiev from replenishing its frontline losses in order to consequently raise the chances of a game-changing breakthrough somewhere along the front. Russia still won’t destroy Ukraine’s bridges across the Dnieper, possibly for the reasons speculated here last year, but striking its draft centers is better than nothing and could give also Russia a soft power edge.
As the FT acknowledged in their report, these draft centers are incredibly unpopular among the people, so it therefore follows that Russia’s destruction of them could lead to average Ukrainians breathing a sigh of relief and perhaps becoming more inclined towards a political solution to this long-running conflict. Those that already were anti-Russian or became so throughout the course of the hostilities might not change their political views, but what’s important is that they might not oppose concessions to Russia.
To be sure, the primary reason why Zelensky doesn’t want to comply with any of Putin’s demands for peace is because it could set into motion fast-moving events that remove him from power, but public opinion also plays a role in falsely justifying this self-interested position to the population. The independent organization of large-scale protests is practically impossible in Ukraine nowadays due to the SBU’s domestic dominance, but decisive shifts in public opinion could prompt a power struggle.
That institution and/or others could potentially see an opportunity in that scenario to allow some controlled protests for the purpose of pressuring Zelensky “from below” into doing what’s needed to end the conflict, which could then legitimize pressure upon him from their institution(s) too. The goal would be to remove him from power, even if only through the new elections that he promised would shortly follow the end of the conflict, and then potentially profit from lucrative reconstruction contracts.
For as compelling as this sequence might seem, it can’t be taken for granted, but the possibility still remains that Russia might at least obtain a soft power edge if it continues striking these draft centers. More average Ukrainians will likely appreciate that since they don’t want to die for Zelensky. Even JD Vance recognizes this reality as proven by him telling the world in late February during his fight with Zelensky in the White House about Ukraine’s forcible conscription policy and recruitment problems.
It's therefore a smart move for Russia to finally start striking Ukrainian draft centers since this could raise the chances for a breakthrough somewhere along the front, help to decisively shift domestic public opinion against the conflict, and thus make it easier for “deep state” forces to conspire against Zelensky. Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain by keeping up and possibly expanding these strikes since they hit Zelensky where it hurts in more ways than one.
Soft power.
I've always been amazed by the USA excellence for soft power.
Why is it the only country for which it works.
It succeeded in make us believe that USA was a democracy while the civic condition of Afro-American and Indian natives was an horror. First Afro admitted in an hospital: 1932 Chicago. First white man convicted of rape of a black lady: 1989(!!!!). First white man convicted of murder of the black man:1994(!!!).
In WW2, they arrived in Europe when USSR already did all the job of breaking Nazi war machine but no, for Europeans, it's USA that wan the war and saved us. They killed or made killed millions in South American, Africa, Asia, they destroyed countries but no, USA is a caring country.
They put Europe( and France) in the most abject submission, no, it's a caring allied.
Meanwhile, the Chinese arouse suspicion and hostility, the Russians arouse fear and aversion, the Germans have a knack for stirring up acrimony, and both the French and the English arouse hatred or contempt.
Why USA succeed in pretending to be the good old buddy?
Russia( even more China) is really weak in soft power.
Why? And precisely where?
Western Europeans are bad at this because of a stupid superiority complex. On the other hand, Russia (and even more so China) are bad at this game because of an inferiority complex.
and like all big strong guys who suffer from an inferiority complex, they will never admit it.
Thanks for this article!
I think nothing will shift in the Ukrainian war as long as elements in US Intel want it to continue. Those who are in power in the intel agencies have more power than any President, and President Trump cannot take control from them or even admit publicly that he is not in control of them.
The American people want the war to end. The Ukrainian people want the war to end. Most likely the Russian people want the war to end. But those psychopaths who currently have power over all of us are insisting on a daily death count that is horrifying to behold. I wish the world's people could unite and destroy those in control who are determined to either kill us all or enslave any of us who find a way to survive.