It’s Delusional To Expect Russia To Sell Oil To Pakistan Within The West’s Price Cap

There’s no way that Russia is going to make an exception to its own legislation to sell oil to Pakistan at the price demanded of it by the West and thus also at a steep discount that it won’t even provide to its strategic Indian partners.

The Express Tribune cited unnamed government sources to report that “Pakistan wants Russia to strike a long-term oil deal while remaining within the price cap at $60 per barrel” as part of an arrangement that “means that Russia will also be bearing the freight cost for oil to be exported to Pakistan.” Either those officials who spoke to that outlet are lying to cover up for their plans to purchase this resource above the West’s price cap or they delusionally thinks that Russia will comply with their rivals’ unfriendly demands.

Literally the day before the Express Tribune published their report, Reuters released its own related one claiming that “Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say”. India is Russia’s decades-long special and strategic partner, so if it’s being sold oil above that limit, then it’s unreasonable to imagine that Russia would sell that resource to its newfound non-traditional Pakistani partners for less. That would be disrespectful to India while needlessly depriving the Kremlin of additional revenue.

To be sure, “More Robust Russian-Pakistani Energy Ties Contribute To Stabilizing South Asia”, particularly with respect to keeping energy prices controllable and thus relieving some of the burden placed upon its nearly quarter-billion people by the economic-financial dimension of their country’s cascading crises. That positive outcome could in turn reduce the chances that some of them do the bidding of various extremist groups out of desperation to make ends meet.

Nevertheless, Russia isn’t going to disrespect India and deprive itself of additional revenue in pursuit of that noble goal, plus its Deputy Prime Minister confirmed on Tuesday that his country’s companies are complying with the presidential decree forbidding them from selling oil within the price ceiling. It also deserves mentioning that Bloomberg published a piece over the weekend that was then shared by the Washington Post arguing that “It’s Time to Scrap the Russian Oil Price Cap”.

Both are leading Western media outlets that command tremendous influence in terms of shaping popular perceptions so it’s no small matter that they’re now informing the public that this particular policy has failed. This narrative development is relevant with respect to the Express Tribune’s report about unnamed officials’ plans to travel to Russia sometime next week to negotiate the purchase of its oil within the West’s price cap.

If they still demand that Russia sell it to them at $60 per barrel or below despite Bloomberg and the Washington Post arguing that this policy has failed, then they’d be better off saving taxpayers’ funds by not even going there in the first place since that plan is doomed to fail. There’s no way that Russia is going to make an exception to its own legislation to sell oil to Pakistan at the price demanded of it by the West and thus also at a steep discount that it won’t even provide to its strategic Indian partners.

Considering this, if those unnamed Pakistani officials are serious about clinching a deal with Russia, then they need to accept that the price per barrel will be on par with what India is paying. In that case, what they told the Express Tribune about their alleged plans to purchase oil within the West’s price cap could be a clever perception management operation aimed at preemptively averting US pressure. It might also turn out that they have no such plans, however, but are convinced during talks to accept a higher price.

Whatever they might be thinking, there aren’t any reasonable grounds to expect Russia to sell Pakistan oil within the West’s price cap. The Express Tribune simply reported what they were told by unnamed government officials, but that doesn’t automatically mean that these plans will come to fruition, nor that anyone has to take them seriously. Unless those figures realize this, then their upcoming trip will be for naught, and it even risks being counterproductive since officially making this demand will offend Russia.