Instead of recklessly risking World War III through the deployment of their troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, they might instead more pragmatically strengthen European NATO’s overall military-security capabilities with a view towards ultimately outmatching Russia in all respects except for nukes.
Andrew, sorry if my post is long but I can't reduce it to few words.
Yes, Andrew, I agree. As usual, the NRPRs greatly exaggerate their reasons for enthusiasm. We know the dozens of times over the past four and a half years when Escobar, Johnson, Simplicius, Mercouris, Crooke, Ritter, McGregor, and others have been lamentably wrong in their enthusiasms. I could make a list (non-exhaustive) for anyone lacking memory. However.
However, you may be jumping the gun when you describe an EU capable of surpassing Russia quickly enough to become an offensive threat.
The EU is starting from very, very far behind.
It has no effective anti-missile system. Its air defense systems have proven pitiful on the European theater. Its artillery is not up to the standards of high-intensity warfare. It has not manufactured a single tank chassis in over 15 years. And all its equipment is similarly lacking. It has no real hypersonic missiles, limiting its supersonic options to the Storm Shadow or the German model. It is behind everyone in drone technology. It no longer has the manufacturing know-how. It is already drowning in debt. The USA is not far from this grim picture. In fact, for over thirty years, the entire Western military apparatus was geared toward neo-colonial wars against under-equipped guerrillas. Everything must be rebuilt for high-intensity warfare—engineers, scientists, technicians, skilled workers must be retrained.
Even with funding, it will take 10 years. And in the meantime, Russia is also advancing by leaps and bounds. And for now, China has not yet put its colossal industrial means at the service of the Russian military-industrial complex. We know that China does not dislike the idea of a Russia bogged down in an endless war with NATO, but we also know it will not let Russia lose.
As for manpower: who will agree to fight in the EU? No one in the West. For 50 years, we have been hammering that the EU means peace, that patriotism is the absolute evil, and that our ancestors were fools to go and get killed 'for nothing.' It is said, repeated, in schools, on TV, on radio, in newspapers—everywhere. The 30 to 40% of young people from immigrant backgrounds will not go and get killed for a country they generally hate, if not despise. Are leaders counting on drones to expand the ranks? Drones do not replace boots on the ground, and they will find their countermeasures. Officers? Apart from France, which maintains a serious training curriculum, the others are trained in less than a year and generally have no scientific background. A joke. As for containing Russia, that is a project, not a fact. To the east, Japan contains nothing and will never be able to contain Russia, China, AND North Korea. To the south, Erdogan is cunning, and his belly-dancer machinations have had some success, but Russia only needs to cut the Azerbaijani knot for the pan-Turkic house of cards to collapse. Moreover, the USA should beware as if of the plague of a Muslim NATO that could well escape them and turn against them. To the northwest, the Baltics and Scandinavians are dwarfs led by a degenerate UK. These people stir up a lot of wind, like a yapping dog behind a fence, but they are far from daring to block Russia, and they will not dare any more. Unless Putin lets them... And then, it will be up to the Russian people to ask the right questions and then decide.
This is a well-organized presentation as a perfect complement or "the other side of the coin" to the original post. I think both of you have valid points, and together, your comments and Andrew's post make a more complete picture. I think I can comprehend a little, just a little, of your agony (for lack of a better word) about the status of Europe. I have a similar agony about China and Taiwan.
A wise guy once said that most people over-estimate the short-term impact of events but under-estimate the long-term consequences. However, for people who do strive to look ahead to assess the current situation, we have to be careful about the other side of the cited saying. That is, do not get disturbed too much by a newly happening event, not just because our long-term evaluation habit may leak into our short-term evaluation, but also because many things we see, hear, or are informed of by any means could have simply been a psyop, a narrative, or, simply put, a well-packaged lie. I am not saying that you have said or done anything wrong. I just think that you deserve a pat on the back and a friendly reminder. All of us can use further improvement.
USA is the only country at the origine of this war.
We Europeans were at peace with Russia. We bought their oil and gas at the cheapest prices in the world, we sold them Airbuses, machine tools, trains, warships, and they came by the millions to spend their money nicely in our countries. And then the USA had to go and ruin all of that.
USA forced Germany and France to be involved in this war and to sacrifice their economy for pleasing their master.
Now, they will not let USA sneaking out the back door.z
The europeans are mkre enthusiastic for this war than anyone, as long as they personally don't have to fight and can focus on whispering campaigns, fruity pageantry, and bending the ears of senile monarchs.
We are seeing more and more American hypocrites who, with pursed-lip sanctimony, are beginning to chime in with Trump's little tune that this is 'the Europeans' war.' No, for 35 years, the USA has consistently and relentlessly been flinging shit at the Ukrainian fan. If Donnie the Golden Asshole wants to believe his own lies, that's his business, but we Europeans will not let the USA get off that easily.
Apology for my lack of understanding, but I am not seeing the eagle view of what you’ve outlined. To me, it just looks kind of random vs an effort to collect allies or undermine adversaries or divide up the territory.
No - it's not random. Russians thought that the end of cold war would lead to a creation of expanded 1st world that would include them. Instead, the West chose to align with Islamic world and China, that obviously don't fit in.
So, West could pursue the current trajectory or change the course. If it decided to change the course, it may have to accept all of Soviet Union as Russian sphere of influence in exchange for Iran and free oil delivery from the Gulf. Maybe with with a graceful resumption of Swedish, Swiss and Austrian neutralities and a re-Finlandization of Finland.
Otherwise: I don't see how US can win in Iran without using nukes, and if it does, Russia may return the favor vis-a-vis Ukraine to bring its own war to the end. My guess is that freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf is more important that NATO-Finland.
If you are matching Russia in all ways except nukes you are not matchingg Russia at all. There are two types of warfare, conventional weapons versus NUKES. The West.NATO need to wise up that Russia is the Nuclear Suuper Power. HURRAH for RUSS IA. They have never been defeated nor will they ever be defeated.
In essence, nothing is a done deal unless the entire West gives up on the South-East Ukraine and the idea of incorporating Rest-Ukraine into NATO. Who knows, maybe there will be a general Spheres of Interest compromise? IE all former Soviet Union as Russian interest, and Iran as Western influence? But let's see.
Iran already is used as a NATO "sphere of influence" by globalists, given the links between Iran, Ukraine, and Turkey. Certain Western factions want to retain a strong Iran as part of a pan-Islamist front against Russia, no matter Israel's say on this.
Well, if you want to confront China economically, it would be stupid to establish a pan-Islamist front against Russia. On the other hand - if one wanted materials like rare earths from a non-China source, Russia would probably be the best situated to provide them.
Besides: Neither China nor Islamic-Ummah are really integratable with the West. But yep, there are many wild-eyed utopists in Western academe and foreign affairs departments who believe that.
No, from a globalist POV pan-Islamism is a useful tool against all nationalist regimes—be they Xi's, Trump's, Putin's, Netanyahu's, or Modi's. You forgot that Erdoğan's regime is tied not just to Iran vis-à-vis Qatar, but also to Turkic Muslim separatists (Uighur) in Xinjiang.
The new HTS regime in Syria, a staunch Turkish proxy, is tied to anti-China Qaida militants, many of whom are naturalized Uighur. Turkish ally Pakistan is backing anti-China ISIS-K militants in Afghanistan to stop China from wooing Taliban mine deals.
Until 2019 Trump actually favored a partnership with Xi, but the COVID-19 and Xinjiang "human-rights" PSYOPs by globalists succeeded in derailing better U.S.–China ties. Islamists would love nothing more than to partition China's Turkic Muslim hinterland.
You may mention Biden's ties to China, but those were to anti-Xi factions within the CCP who were later purged for their corrupt ties to globalist Western elites, including anti-Trump elements. Most of the China oil "teapots" were secret U.S. shipments.
...
Biden was identified as “Chair / Vice Chair depending on agreement with CEFC,” an apparent reference to the former Shanghai-based conglomerate CEFC China Energy Co.
China's CEFC chairman investigated for suspected economic crimes: source
Ye Jianming, who founded the company in 2002, was taken in for questioning this year, the person said without saying which authorities were involved or whether the probe was continuing. The person declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Detail on the probe comes after the Chinese government last week took control of insurer Anbang Insurance Group Co Ltd and said its chairman was being prosecuted for economic crimes, underscoring Beijing's willingness to curtail big-spending conglomerates as it cracks down on financial risk.
The United States imported a rare cargo of 1.033 million barrels of Iranian crude in March despite sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
Beijing is concerned about the new government’s appointment of Uighur fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) in its security and defence forces.
The TIP is a militant Islamist group that fought alongside al-Sharaa’s former group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), against the Assad regime during the country’s 13-year civil war. It is made up primarily of ethnic Uighurs from China’s Xinjiang province.
An estimated 3,500 fighters – mostly Uighurs from the TIP – have reportedly been integrated into a newly formed unit within the Syrian army, the 84th Division.
Turkey, a key supporter of HTS, has been a vocal critic of China's Uyghur policies, hosting a significant Uyghur diaspora and raising the issue at international forums like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
Daniel this is so far down in the weeds that it's impossible for me to see any unifying strategy. It just looks like poking at sore spots to keep the pot boiling.
Totally agree, Russia should not celebrate. They are facing a bankrupt and desperate adversary on the edge of financial collapse who, like thieves in the forest, are looking for a victim. This is an existential situation for Russia.
The west is slowly turning Ukraine into Russia's Palestine, a perpetual sore that will never heal and a base for endless terrorism attacks.
The persistent terrorism seems aimed at both the Russian psyche and specific military assets. Blueberry attacks draw resources away from economically more strategic assets. AI tech is almost certainly being used to manage the battle space.
Whether this is meant to slowly degrade Russia mentally or, through excessive defense expenditures, economically, is unclear, but what is clear is that the west is not stopping.
The west is further destabilizing China thru higher energy prices that Asian trading partners have difficulty absorbing, which will almost certainly impact China's economy and destabilize China politically, the greatest dread of Chinese leadership. They are consequently frozen in terms of furthering an alliance with Russia, which is probably the best way out for both.
While there is a big debate amongst Americans over this, I personally do not think European leadership is stupid to the core (even if Euro energy policy makes the opposite case pretty solid).
Im quite sure Russian and Chinese leadership understand what is happening, but Im not seeing signs that they have an effective counter-strategy yet. Imo, the window for bold moves is starting to close so China/Russia should get their act together. Imo, this is the best hope for preventing a global tragedy.
Andrew, sorry if my post is long but I can't reduce it to few words.
Yes, Andrew, I agree. As usual, the NRPRs greatly exaggerate their reasons for enthusiasm. We know the dozens of times over the past four and a half years when Escobar, Johnson, Simplicius, Mercouris, Crooke, Ritter, McGregor, and others have been lamentably wrong in their enthusiasms. I could make a list (non-exhaustive) for anyone lacking memory. However.
However, you may be jumping the gun when you describe an EU capable of surpassing Russia quickly enough to become an offensive threat.
The EU is starting from very, very far behind.
It has no effective anti-missile system. Its air defense systems have proven pitiful on the European theater. Its artillery is not up to the standards of high-intensity warfare. It has not manufactured a single tank chassis in over 15 years. And all its equipment is similarly lacking. It has no real hypersonic missiles, limiting its supersonic options to the Storm Shadow or the German model. It is behind everyone in drone technology. It no longer has the manufacturing know-how. It is already drowning in debt. The USA is not far from this grim picture. In fact, for over thirty years, the entire Western military apparatus was geared toward neo-colonial wars against under-equipped guerrillas. Everything must be rebuilt for high-intensity warfare—engineers, scientists, technicians, skilled workers must be retrained.
Even with funding, it will take 10 years. And in the meantime, Russia is also advancing by leaps and bounds. And for now, China has not yet put its colossal industrial means at the service of the Russian military-industrial complex. We know that China does not dislike the idea of a Russia bogged down in an endless war with NATO, but we also know it will not let Russia lose.
As for manpower: who will agree to fight in the EU? No one in the West. For 50 years, we have been hammering that the EU means peace, that patriotism is the absolute evil, and that our ancestors were fools to go and get killed 'for nothing.' It is said, repeated, in schools, on TV, on radio, in newspapers—everywhere. The 30 to 40% of young people from immigrant backgrounds will not go and get killed for a country they generally hate, if not despise. Are leaders counting on drones to expand the ranks? Drones do not replace boots on the ground, and they will find their countermeasures. Officers? Apart from France, which maintains a serious training curriculum, the others are trained in less than a year and generally have no scientific background. A joke. As for containing Russia, that is a project, not a fact. To the east, Japan contains nothing and will never be able to contain Russia, China, AND North Korea. To the south, Erdogan is cunning, and his belly-dancer machinations have had some success, but Russia only needs to cut the Azerbaijani knot for the pan-Turkic house of cards to collapse. Moreover, the USA should beware as if of the plague of a Muslim NATO that could well escape them and turn against them. To the northwest, the Baltics and Scandinavians are dwarfs led by a degenerate UK. These people stir up a lot of wind, like a yapping dog behind a fence, but they are far from daring to block Russia, and they will not dare any more. Unless Putin lets them... And then, it will be up to the Russian people to ask the right questions and then decide.
This is a well-organized presentation as a perfect complement or "the other side of the coin" to the original post. I think both of you have valid points, and together, your comments and Andrew's post make a more complete picture. I think I can comprehend a little, just a little, of your agony (for lack of a better word) about the status of Europe. I have a similar agony about China and Taiwan.
A wise guy once said that most people over-estimate the short-term impact of events but under-estimate the long-term consequences. However, for people who do strive to look ahead to assess the current situation, we have to be careful about the other side of the cited saying. That is, do not get disturbed too much by a newly happening event, not just because our long-term evaluation habit may leak into our short-term evaluation, but also because many things we see, hear, or are informed of by any means could have simply been a psyop, a narrative, or, simply put, a well-packaged lie. I am not saying that you have said or done anything wrong. I just think that you deserve a pat on the back and a friendly reminder. All of us can use further improvement.
Europe is inhabited largely by europeans, aging metrosexual weenies.
Asians, Africans and Latins can be recruited as mercenaries, promised a passport at the end of a tour.
That doesn't work.
The elites behind the war will never abide such an outcome and will succeed in imposing their own puppets, as usual.
The European elites at the origine of this war???
Serious?
USA is the only country at the origine of this war.
We Europeans were at peace with Russia. We bought their oil and gas at the cheapest prices in the world, we sold them Airbuses, machine tools, trains, warships, and they came by the millions to spend their money nicely in our countries. And then the USA had to go and ruin all of that.
USA forced Germany and France to be involved in this war and to sacrifice their economy for pleasing their master.
Now, they will not let USA sneaking out the back door.z
"We Europeans were at peace with Russia."
Were.
The europeans are mkre enthusiastic for this war than anyone, as long as they personally don't have to fight and can focus on whispering campaigns, fruity pageantry, and bending the ears of senile monarchs.
We are seeing more and more American hypocrites who, with pursed-lip sanctimony, are beginning to chime in with Trump's little tune that this is 'the Europeans' war.' No, for 35 years, the USA has consistently and relentlessly been flinging shit at the Ukrainian fan. If Donnie the Golden Asshole wants to believe his own lies, that's his business, but we Europeans will not let the USA get off that easily.
Exchanging former Soviet Union as Russian sphere of influence for Iran would be in the Western interest.
As the axis of hate?
What do you mean?
Apology for my lack of understanding, but I am not seeing the eagle view of what you’ve outlined. To me, it just looks kind of random vs an effort to collect allies or undermine adversaries or divide up the territory.
No - it's not random. Russians thought that the end of cold war would lead to a creation of expanded 1st world that would include them. Instead, the West chose to align with Islamic world and China, that obviously don't fit in.
So, West could pursue the current trajectory or change the course. If it decided to change the course, it may have to accept all of Soviet Union as Russian sphere of influence in exchange for Iran and free oil delivery from the Gulf. Maybe with with a graceful resumption of Swedish, Swiss and Austrian neutralities and a re-Finlandization of Finland.
Otherwise: I don't see how US can win in Iran without using nukes, and if it does, Russia may return the favor vis-a-vis Ukraine to bring its own war to the end. My guess is that freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf is more important that NATO-Finland.
Got it. Thank you.
In abandoning a friendly Russia, the west was stupid.
The willing are a bunch of JERKS, Zelensky being the biggest.
If you are matching Russia in all ways except nukes you are not matchingg Russia at all. There are two types of warfare, conventional weapons versus NUKES. The West.NATO need to wise up that Russia is the Nuclear Suuper Power. HURRAH for RUSS IA. They have never been defeated nor will they ever be defeated.
How many times in the last four years have we seen premature declarations of victory?
In essence, nothing is a done deal unless the entire West gives up on the South-East Ukraine and the idea of incorporating Rest-Ukraine into NATO. Who knows, maybe there will be a general Spheres of Interest compromise? IE all former Soviet Union as Russian interest, and Iran as Western influence? But let's see.
Iran already is used as a NATO "sphere of influence" by globalists, given the links between Iran, Ukraine, and Turkey. Certain Western factions want to retain a strong Iran as part of a pan-Islamist front against Russia, no matter Israel's say on this.
Well, if you want to confront China economically, it would be stupid to establish a pan-Islamist front against Russia. On the other hand - if one wanted materials like rare earths from a non-China source, Russia would probably be the best situated to provide them.
Besides: Neither China nor Islamic-Ummah are really integratable with the West. But yep, there are many wild-eyed utopists in Western academe and foreign affairs departments who believe that.
No, from a globalist POV pan-Islamism is a useful tool against all nationalist regimes—be they Xi's, Trump's, Putin's, Netanyahu's, or Modi's. You forgot that Erdoğan's regime is tied not just to Iran vis-à-vis Qatar, but also to Turkic Muslim separatists (Uighur) in Xinjiang.
The new HTS regime in Syria, a staunch Turkish proxy, is tied to anti-China Qaida militants, many of whom are naturalized Uighur. Turkish ally Pakistan is backing anti-China ISIS-K militants in Afghanistan to stop China from wooing Taliban mine deals.
Until 2019 Trump actually favored a partnership with Xi, but the COVID-19 and Xinjiang "human-rights" PSYOPs by globalists succeeded in derailing better U.S.–China ties. Islamists would love nothing more than to partition China's Turkic Muslim hinterland.
You may mention Biden's ties to China, but those were to anti-Xi factions within the CCP who were later purged for their corrupt ties to globalist Western elites, including anti-Trump elements. Most of the China oil "teapots" were secret U.S. shipments.
...
Biden was identified as “Chair / Vice Chair depending on agreement with CEFC,” an apparent reference to the former Shanghai-based conglomerate CEFC China Energy Co.
https://nypost.com/2020/10/15/emails-reveal-how-hunter-biden-tried-to-cash-in-big-with-chinese-firm/
China's CEFC chairman investigated for suspected economic crimes: source
Ye Jianming, who founded the company in 2002, was taken in for questioning this year, the person said without saying which authorities were involved or whether the probe was continuing. The person declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
Detail on the probe comes after the Chinese government last week took control of insurer Anbang Insurance Group Co Ltd and said its chairman was being prosecuted for economic crimes, underscoring Beijing's willingness to curtail big-spending conglomerates as it cracks down on financial risk.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cefc-probe/chinas-cefc-chairman-investigated-for-suspected-economic-crimes-source-idUSKCN1GD3O9/
Several American insurance and logistics companies actually facilitated the transit of Iranian oil...
https://sites.tufts.edu/fletcherrussia/joe-bidens-iran-oil-sanctions-failure/
May 30, 2021
The United States imported a rare cargo of 1.033 million barrels of Iranian crude in March despite sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/u-s-imports-rare-iranian-oil-in-march-despite-sanctions-eia-data
...
Beijing is concerned about the new government’s appointment of Uighur fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) in its security and defence forces.
The TIP is a militant Islamist group that fought alongside al-Sharaa’s former group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), against the Assad regime during the country’s 13-year civil war. It is made up primarily of ethnic Uighurs from China’s Xinjiang province.
An estimated 3,500 fighters – mostly Uighurs from the TIP – have reportedly been integrated into a newly formed unit within the Syrian army, the 84th Division.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/why-china-hesitant-support-syrias-new-government-al-sharaa-faces-crucial-month
Turkey, a key supporter of HTS, has been a vocal critic of China's Uyghur policies, hosting a significant Uyghur diaspora and raising the issue at international forums like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
https://turkistanpress.com/en/page/china-syria-relations-and-the-uyghur-issue/2517
Daniel this is so far down in the weeds that it's impossible for me to see any unifying strategy. It just looks like poking at sore spots to keep the pot boiling.
Totally agree, Russia should not celebrate. They are facing a bankrupt and desperate adversary on the edge of financial collapse who, like thieves in the forest, are looking for a victim. This is an existential situation for Russia.
The west is slowly turning Ukraine into Russia's Palestine, a perpetual sore that will never heal and a base for endless terrorism attacks.
The persistent terrorism seems aimed at both the Russian psyche and specific military assets. Blueberry attacks draw resources away from economically more strategic assets. AI tech is almost certainly being used to manage the battle space.
Whether this is meant to slowly degrade Russia mentally or, through excessive defense expenditures, economically, is unclear, but what is clear is that the west is not stopping.
The west is further destabilizing China thru higher energy prices that Asian trading partners have difficulty absorbing, which will almost certainly impact China's economy and destabilize China politically, the greatest dread of Chinese leadership. They are consequently frozen in terms of furthering an alliance with Russia, which is probably the best way out for both.
While there is a big debate amongst Americans over this, I personally do not think European leadership is stupid to the core (even if Euro energy policy makes the opposite case pretty solid).
Im quite sure Russian and Chinese leadership understand what is happening, but Im not seeing signs that they have an effective counter-strategy yet. Imo, the window for bold moves is starting to close so China/Russia should get their act together. Imo, this is the best hope for preventing a global tragedy.
When will it be OK to celebrate the death of a genocidal regime ?
Please advise.