Japan & The Philippines Are Poised To Play Greater Roles In Containing China
Japanese-Philippine military ties are slated to become even more significant in this context once Japan begins exporting military equipment to the Philippines after recently easing decades-old restrictions.
Putin’s senior aide Nikolay Patrushev assessed late last year that “Japan Will Play A Much Greater Role In Advancing The American Agenda In Asia”. That preceded new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s innuendo about her country defending Taiwan from China, which in turn led to the conclusion that “Japan Might Challenge China Sooner Than Expected”. For background, the US envisages Japan helping to contain China through what can be called the AUKUS+ network, which could become an Asian NATO.
The core is conceived as comprising something what Pentagon officials reportedly refer to as the “Squad”, which is equivalent to the Quad of the US, Australia, Japan, and India but replaces the last-mentioned with the Philippines. It was foreseen as far back as summer 2023 that “The US’ Nascent Trilateral Alliance With Japan & The Philippines Will Integrate Into AUKUS+”. One year later, Japan and the Philippines agreed to a military logistics pact, thus strengthening their part of the Squad.
Japanese-Philippine military ties are slated to become even more significant once Japan begins exporting military equipment to the Philippines after easing decades-old restrictions in late April. China predictably protested its historical nemesis’ move and most recently referenced it yet again in early June after Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning warned that “These dangerous tendencies are surprisingly similar to the Japanese militarists’ preparations for unleashing aggression ahead of World War II”.
From China’s perspective, the US is encouraging its dual mutual defense allies to comprehensively strengthen military ties with the intent of tightening the AUKUS+-led and Squad-centric containment noose around the People’s Republic by means of a new military logistics corridor just east of Taiwan. If coupled with regular naval drills, including those in which the US and other AUKUS+ states participate, then more adversarial military assets could appear more frequently on its southern maritime doorstep.
If this is normalized in parallel with the placement of US intermediate-range missiles in the Philippine island of Luzon and Japan’s Ryukyu Islands, which bookend Taiwan, then Japan and the Philippines would become the tip of the US’ containment spear. China can either let this unfold with all that could entail for a major war if a war later one breaks out with Taiwan, but keep the peace for now, or risk a major war right now by “preventively” attacking the US’ Japanese and Philippine allies (or move on Taiwan now).
The emerging dilemma mirrors what Russia is experiencing with respect to European NATO’s planned expansion of forces along their border that it expects to be led by Germany. Russia can either let this unfold with all that could entail for a major war if another Ukrainian Conflict breaks out once the present one ends, but keep the peace for now (relatively in the sense of no hot war with NATO), or risk a major war now by “preventively” attacking NATO’s Eastern Flank (Finland, the Baltic States, and/or Poland).
If neither Russia nor China acts, then the “cordon sanitaires” along their respective western and southern borders will tighten. Even worse, NATO member Turkiye might succeed in expanding its sphere of influence into Central Asia via the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” across the South Caucasus, which serves a dual NATO military logistics purpose. Russia and China would then risk being pressured by the US along their shared rear. It’s unclear how they’ll avert this worst-case scenario.
Don Tzu comment above has said it well, the majority of Chinese do not mind to having a round 2 with Japan. The only propaganda item invested more by CCP than the anti-US rhetoric is the narrative that CCP led the anti-Japanese struggle during WW2 and this is the foundation of CCP's justification to drive out the Republic of China government (because the government did not resist the Japs hard enough.)
China can play soft for many kinds of provocation, except for two: (1) Japan's military rise (in the aspect of challenging China) (2) US/Japan occupying Taiwan, especially if Japan openly involves itself in helping Taiwan, which has already happened by giving Taiwan blueprints for a fairly advanced sub.
Japan has good reasons to rearm, including dragging up domestic economy. However, this policy has failed during Abe's era, and also failed during 1920s and 1930s. The infamous but lesser known 515 Incident was an arbitration on the choice of national budget: for the military or for the civilians. The result was the assassination of the then Treasury Secretary of Japan and a retired senior politician, Inukai Tsuyoshi, who was claimed to be the last Japanese politician who wanted to befriend China (and actually a contemporary and a good supporter of Sun Yat-Sen's republican revolution in China). Japan's problem is that in the 1930s, Manchuria contained natural resources Japan wanted and could loot, but by now China provides very little of what Japan really needs (energy, food staples, mineral resources) because China has problems satisfying domestic needs already.
Therefore, Japanese people should ask themselves why they want to challenge China militarily. Have China's warships harassed Japanese shipping and intercepted Japanese oil supply? Japan could choose to arm up but to claim its independence rather than confirming its vassal status. The chance is slim, however, due to the deep infiltration of Japanese society. However, Japan is not Mexico, Venezuela, or Europe. IMHO, China should make a final attempt to soften the provocation and promote cooperation, and delay open hostility until the last. Unfortunately, China's diplomatic actions and rhetoric have made that approach very difficult. The below-par quality of tourists and immigrants from China to Japan also stirred grassroots distaste among Japanese people. Given China's domestic situation, I think China will use Japan's rearmament as an incentive and excuse to "soft" mobilize and tighten social control.
Not only is China at a historical crossroad, so is Japan, and the US. IMHO, the path for Russia to move forward is clear, at least for the next ten years. The other three nations all have needs for deep soul-searching. But from my perspective, I see very little going on. I surely hope I am wrong in this matter.
Neither Japan or the Philippines have the dedicated war factions of the Ukraines nationalists. Belligerence from either will produce a very forceful response.