The production of NATO-standard shells hints that Kazakhstan plans to follow in Azerbaijan’s footsteps by having its armed forces conform with the bloc’s standards ahead of what its leadership might have been duped by the West to believe will be an inevitable crisis with Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.
One wonders what the Chinese think about these developments in their backyard... Something is telling me that they might not be exceedingly enthusiastic about a NATO-aligned Turkistan in Central-Asia. This seems to be something that needs to be taken into account.
If China had any sense of self-preservation, they would use all their leverage to force one or two of these Central Asian stans to install a Chinese military base there. That's a non-drastic, legitimate move that would thwart these ATA plans and routes. And advance Chinese interests.
Buy like I said in another comment, China will not do jack shit.
Exactly. Kazakhstan is sandwiched between Russia and China. I can't imagine a situation that either would entertain Nato extending influence in their back yard. Ukraine is only being attacked from one direction. Kazakhstan would be shafted from both ends.
How about just fucking with Kazakh elections. That's perfectly legal: it's what the West has done in Romania, Moldova, Armenia, and even Germany. A sterling example to follow.
Andrew, can you, please, elaborate on how Russia has treated Kazakhstan? What frictions have there been between RU & KZ for KZ to pivot towards NATO? Is this the outcome of everyday Kazakhs experience everyday racism in Russia and then with time turn away? Has Russia pushed Kazakhstan around too hard? Is this KZ just trying to do an Erdogan and squeeze a lot from Russia, US and China?
I'm constructively critical of Russia whenever I believe it's warranted, as I assume you know if you've followed my work, but I honesty can't think of a single thing that Russia did to offend Kazakhstan or even suggest possibly one day harming its interests.
Kazakhstan enjoys free trade with Russia through the Eurasian Economic Union, it has barely any migrant laborers here (the Kazakh economy is generally solid and in some ways outperforms the Russian one), and Russia has provided for its defense through the CSTO, even saving President Tokayev during the terrorist-hybrid coup attempt of January 2022.
It's therefore either Tokayev and his clique selling out to Turkiye and the US or they've naively let themselves be manipulated by those two into seriously believing that Kazakhstan is next after Ukraine so they'd better act ahead of time to "deter" Russia.
Not all our politicians must necessarily be evil and at work for shady interests. Some of them may be indeed just naive and easily manipulated. Think of the EU leaders. Last night they decided to give 90 billion Euros to the most corrupt country of Europe... In Kiev, the champagne is being uncorked today, I imagine.
"constructively critical" - yes, I know but I haven't really followed the KZ saga in detail. I do remember the shock among a couple of oil company leaders after Crimea though. It made them "задуматься". They agreed that one of the most sober analyses was that real grievances of the population were abused by the powers to be to enforce the Maidan coup. Ukrainians were at the time under the illusion that they were about to get a nice EU-deal.
Maybe some micro-problems: at some time 5-10 years ago all KZ potato was exported to Russia and the Kazakhs had to pay a lot more for the locally grown potato. One irritant. Maybe more of those?
I really don't think there are any irritants, including imaginary ones, that made them want to do this. They're either easily manipulated and/or corrupt. Anyhow, it's a terrible decision and I'm still a bit shocked that they're doing this.
Andrew, a well-laid-out thought process on this. I still firmly believe that we will see new trading blocs open up around the world. We will see peace in 2026, that is, if the UK, NATO, and the EU wake up. The new trading blocs around the world will not involve them, and I would rather do business with Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the US. As you point out, what you manufacture for war tells a lot about the country's alignment.
You should never do business with the Saudis, they are one of the world's most rotten elites.
when the current king met J Kushner, he told J Kushner that they are cousins. Kushner asked how, the king said that his nanny who raised him is Jewish.
The Brics will win at the end of the day, if the Saudis then turn their backs on the wind, they will be the lowest in the hierarchy. Stupid camel riders.
‘The passing of Ukrainian-like discriminatory legislation against Kazakhstan’s Russian minority’
There are around three million Russians in Kazakhstan. An attack on them will surely draw a response from the Russian Federation and this is exactly what NATO wants to trigger.
The problem seems to be that many European states are unable to depart from their historical experiences from Soviet communism and related acts. On the other hand there is overwhelming quality evidence that the new Russian Federation has left this period behind and opened a new age, moved successfully toward a new path. Europeans are misled by their own upper classes who are still presenting Russia as a bogeyman in order to force them into the next war, to keep their power. Sometimes there is also an overwhelming fear factor involved. The proper solution is in the creation of alliances by smaller states like the Visegrad Alliance, organizations that are strong enough to stand up to pressure if necessary. Calling in the degraded forces of US/NATO is only taking them to the old recipes that created WWI and WWII, no acceptable solutions there.
The proper solution is what Belarus has been doing all along, to its immense benefit, and what Finland used to do for most of the Cold War, until suicidal renegades were elected to its government.
You will note that the countries making up the putative "Visegrad alliance", with the sole exception of rabid Poland, are also pushing for friendly relations with Russia: Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia. Somehow, they are not eager to "stand up" like you project.
A hostile Kazakhstan poses the same existential threat to Russia as Ukraine and Finland: the stationing of nukes virtually in Russia's underbelly. All of these states were treated fairly and even friendly by Russia, until they turned enemy and became a mortal threat. The same pattern is being followed here. The thing one does with mortal threats is eliminate them, or die.
Look at Belarus, another limitrophe. It maintained friendly relations. Today it is fed, defended, and fueled by Russia, and there have been no encroachments on its welfare. That is a contrast to the catastrophe of Ukraine, and the looming catastrophe of idiot-ruled Finland. But Kazakhstan insists on following the same path.
What the US is doing is preparing for a multifrontal war with the Russia-China-Iran axis and while it wants both Russia and Iran completely defeated if not now but at least over the next 10-15 year horizon. Nato is opening a tribal Sunni Caliphatic axis vs Russia and Shia Iran and then China - It only wants to prevent China from being no.1 by weakening it - the cost of defeating China could be negative compared to Russia and Iran which could be highly positive for bankers both in Wall Street and City of London. Sunni Islam as it is just a diabolical proxy of Romanism. It is the Roman Catholic church which created the creed to eliminate what was then the largest church in the world - the Church of the East(till 900-1000ĀD) or the Persian Church and then Orthodoxy both Oriental and Eastern. It was the Eastern Roman emperor Heraclius who invited the prophet of Islam to his capital after Rome cooked up the creed and went into a long confabulation with him only to come out together with him and with drum beats and trumpets declare Mohammed as a true prophet of the bible and then ordered his plebs to convert to Islam. Mohammed's first wife and handler Khadeeja a Nazrene was groomed inside a Roman Catholic convent and given an abundant war chest by the Roman senatorial families to finance the coming holy wars against the Eastern Christians and the Torah Jews. We all saw how the US-UK used this Caliphatic Sunni axis to overthrow the secular Alawi govt of Syria backed by Iran and Russia. Unless the Russians understand it properly the third world war will also be a religious war with Freemasonry+Jesuitism+Sufi Luciferian Islam vs Shia Iran Orthodox world led by Russia and Confucian China. Men are typically too tribal to be human and good.
Low information leaders, like those in Kazakhstan, will respond intuitively to their perceptions of the winds of change. Russia is slowly grinding Ukraine, and the central Asian economic/political future is obviously shared between Russia and China, but the global media environment communicates the opposite. Russia needs a large, catalyzing, unavoidable victory to swing perception back to reality. The slow grind has enormous drawbacks.
Iran has its hands full with the threat on its other border. It is not in a position to provoke Turkey right now, because Turkey is just the partner USrael needs to complete the coalition against Iran. Iran even ignored Azerbaijan's obvious complicity in Raisi's "accident", so fearful it is of antagonizing Azerbaijan right now.
Also, Iran is traditionally hostile towards Russia. It is only friendly now because it has the Hegemon foaming at its throat, and nowhere else to turn. But once the pressure eases, Iran will also stab Russia in the back.
As for Russia, it made the mistake of thinking Kazakhstan's elites are adults, and will make decisions that benefit Kazakhstan in the long run. Everyone judges by themselves, as the saying goes. But these elites are greedy, stupid narcissists, easy to manipulate and corrupt. Somehow the Russians didn't anticipate that---I think Naryshkin should be sacked for this failure.
I've already given my thoughts on China's policy in other comments in this thread.
That's pure hasbara bullshit. If Khamenei didn't like Raisi's line, he could just have said no, rather than murder his own, with all the attendant risks. What you are implying makes exactly zero sense, except as an Israeli fantasy.
But why even fly to Azerbaijan when the relationship between the countries is not good, when Azerbaijan has thoughts of bringing back part of Iran's territory that has an Azeri majority?
If you ignore Russia and China, there is not a damn country in the world that can be strong without the cabal's approval of well-being, and Iran in particular. Don't forget that the cabal is in Iran too, but whether it is a western or eastern cabal, the future will tell. What do you know if Raisi was a loyal Iranian or a Mossad camouflage.
I would have wished that he had leveled the ground in Israel, if he were genuine.
They backed Hamas, so how the hell can Mossad assassinate Hamas leaders inside Tehran?
There's a number of reasons a politician might see a need to talk with a neighbor, even if that neighbor is not very friendly. Something the Euroidiots fail to understand.
As for infiltrating Tehran, there is an old and numerous Jewish diaspora in Iran. Whenever there are Jews mixed with the natives, Mossad has ready-made agents.
You don't see such visits between Russia and the Baltic countries, there are several examples of that. But I have to assume that each individual case is unique and alone in its kind.
Well, Iran is one of the worst affected countries when it comes to the infection of desert rabies. Originates from the time when Babylon imprisoned the majority of them because it was difficult to tame them, until the boy lover Alexander came and freed them and many stayed in current Iran or Iraq, .
With all due respect to your hypothesis/truth, I have a very hard time believing that Iran on the left didn't have a hand in the helicopter crash, I may be naive.
One wonders what the Chinese think about these developments in their backyard... Something is telling me that they might not be exceedingly enthusiastic about a NATO-aligned Turkistan in Central-Asia. This seems to be something that needs to be taken into account.
Good point because a Turkic Army on Xinjiang's borders could represent a major security threat to China.
If China had any sense of self-preservation, they would use all their leverage to force one or two of these Central Asian stans to install a Chinese military base there. That's a non-drastic, legitimate move that would thwart these ATA plans and routes. And advance Chinese interests.
Buy like I said in another comment, China will not do jack shit.
The Chinese are very patient:
Treaty of Aigun (1858)
Signed while China was weakened by the Opium Wars
China ceded land north of the Amur River to Russia
Convention / Treaty of Peking (1860)
China ceded Outer Manchuria (east of the Ussuri River)
This gave Russia access to the Pacific coast
Vladivostok was founded shortly afterward
Territory involved
Roughly 600,000–1,000,000 km²
Today this area is part of Russia’s Far East
Known in Chinese history as “Outer Manchuria” (外东北)
How China views it
These treaties are considered “unequal treaties”
Seen as losses imposed when China was militarily and politically weak
Still a sensitive historical topic in China
Modern status
China officially recognizes the current border
No active territorial claims today
But the historical memory remains important in Chinese nationalism
Yeah, so China should trip up Russia. That would do wonders for China's future, don't you think?
They're already moving in.
Which Chinese nationalism? Are Manchus even considered Han?
China will not do jack shit. They will not even fund Russia when it is taking their chestnuts out of the fire.
There is a poem out there:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_They_Came
This is EXACTLY the policy China is following, and how it will end.
Kazakhstan would not be foolish enough to become the next Ukraine.
Russia & China will not allow Kazakstan to go into NATO. They could just step in and take over Kazakstan for them seves.
Exactly. Kazakhstan is sandwiched between Russia and China. I can't imagine a situation that either would entertain Nato extending influence in their back yard. Ukraine is only being attacked from one direction. Kazakhstan would be shafted from both ends.
Sounds very legal.
How about just fucking with Kazakh elections. That's perfectly legal: it's what the West has done in Romania, Moldova, Armenia, and even Germany. A sterling example to follow.
Sure, as long as its covert with a veneer of legality.
Andrew, can you, please, elaborate on how Russia has treated Kazakhstan? What frictions have there been between RU & KZ for KZ to pivot towards NATO? Is this the outcome of everyday Kazakhs experience everyday racism in Russia and then with time turn away? Has Russia pushed Kazakhstan around too hard? Is this KZ just trying to do an Erdogan and squeeze a lot from Russia, US and China?
I'm constructively critical of Russia whenever I believe it's warranted, as I assume you know if you've followed my work, but I honesty can't think of a single thing that Russia did to offend Kazakhstan or even suggest possibly one day harming its interests.
Kazakhstan enjoys free trade with Russia through the Eurasian Economic Union, it has barely any migrant laborers here (the Kazakh economy is generally solid and in some ways outperforms the Russian one), and Russia has provided for its defense through the CSTO, even saving President Tokayev during the terrorist-hybrid coup attempt of January 2022.
It's therefore either Tokayev and his clique selling out to Turkiye and the US or they've naively let themselves be manipulated by those two into seriously believing that Kazakhstan is next after Ukraine so they'd better act ahead of time to "deter" Russia.
Not all our politicians must necessarily be evil and at work for shady interests. Some of them may be indeed just naive and easily manipulated. Think of the EU leaders. Last night they decided to give 90 billion Euros to the most corrupt country of Europe... In Kiev, the champagne is being uncorked today, I imagine.
Tokayev is anything but naive. He is a snake, and always has been.
Astana = satana
"constructively critical" - yes, I know but I haven't really followed the KZ saga in detail. I do remember the shock among a couple of oil company leaders after Crimea though. It made them "задуматься". They agreed that one of the most sober analyses was that real grievances of the population were abused by the powers to be to enforce the Maidan coup. Ukrainians were at the time under the illusion that they were about to get a nice EU-deal.
Maybe some micro-problems: at some time 5-10 years ago all KZ potato was exported to Russia and the Kazakhs had to pay a lot more for the locally grown potato. One irritant. Maybe more of those?
Or just like Feral Finster says: follow the money
I really don't think there are any irritants, including imaginary ones, that made them want to do this. They're either easily manipulated and/or corrupt. Anyhow, it's a terrible decision and I'm still a bit shocked that they're doing this.
No friction necessary. KZ leaders know where money, power and prestige lie.
Russia is seen as impotent and indecisive. The Americans are not.
Andrew, a well-laid-out thought process on this. I still firmly believe that we will see new trading blocs open up around the world. We will see peace in 2026, that is, if the UK, NATO, and the EU wake up. The new trading blocs around the world will not involve them, and I would rather do business with Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and the US. As you point out, what you manufacture for war tells a lot about the country's alignment.
I think the silence of the Brics has a meaning.
Sets traps for these inbred Satanists.
You should never do business with the Saudis, they are one of the world's most rotten elites.
when the current king met J Kushner, he told J Kushner that they are cousins. Kushner asked how, the king said that his nanny who raised him is Jewish.
The Brics will win at the end of the day, if the Saudis then turn their backs on the wind, they will be the lowest in the hierarchy. Stupid camel riders.
‘The passing of Ukrainian-like discriminatory legislation against Kazakhstan’s Russian minority’
There are around three million Russians in Kazakhstan. An attack on them will surely draw a response from the Russian Federation and this is exactly what NATO wants to trigger.
The problem seems to be that many European states are unable to depart from their historical experiences from Soviet communism and related acts. On the other hand there is overwhelming quality evidence that the new Russian Federation has left this period behind and opened a new age, moved successfully toward a new path. Europeans are misled by their own upper classes who are still presenting Russia as a bogeyman in order to force them into the next war, to keep their power. Sometimes there is also an overwhelming fear factor involved. The proper solution is in the creation of alliances by smaller states like the Visegrad Alliance, organizations that are strong enough to stand up to pressure if necessary. Calling in the degraded forces of US/NATO is only taking them to the old recipes that created WWI and WWII, no acceptable solutions there.
The proper solution is what Belarus has been doing all along, to its immense benefit, and what Finland used to do for most of the Cold War, until suicidal renegades were elected to its government.
You will note that the countries making up the putative "Visegrad alliance", with the sole exception of rabid Poland, are also pushing for friendly relations with Russia: Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia. Somehow, they are not eager to "stand up" like you project.
Andrew - what territory within Kazakhstan is deemed to be "Russian" in certain people's eyes?
A hostile Kazakhstan poses the same existential threat to Russia as Ukraine and Finland: the stationing of nukes virtually in Russia's underbelly. All of these states were treated fairly and even friendly by Russia, until they turned enemy and became a mortal threat. The same pattern is being followed here. The thing one does with mortal threats is eliminate them, or die.
Look at Belarus, another limitrophe. It maintained friendly relations. Today it is fed, defended, and fueled by Russia, and there have been no encroachments on its welfare. That is a contrast to the catastrophe of Ukraine, and the looming catastrophe of idiot-ruled Finland. But Kazakhstan insists on following the same path.
After 1991, both Solzhenitsyn and Limonov advocated for the incorporation of northern Kazakhstan into Russia.
What the US is doing is preparing for a multifrontal war with the Russia-China-Iran axis and while it wants both Russia and Iran completely defeated if not now but at least over the next 10-15 year horizon. Nato is opening a tribal Sunni Caliphatic axis vs Russia and Shia Iran and then China - It only wants to prevent China from being no.1 by weakening it - the cost of defeating China could be negative compared to Russia and Iran which could be highly positive for bankers both in Wall Street and City of London. Sunni Islam as it is just a diabolical proxy of Romanism. It is the Roman Catholic church which created the creed to eliminate what was then the largest church in the world - the Church of the East(till 900-1000ĀD) or the Persian Church and then Orthodoxy both Oriental and Eastern. It was the Eastern Roman emperor Heraclius who invited the prophet of Islam to his capital after Rome cooked up the creed and went into a long confabulation with him only to come out together with him and with drum beats and trumpets declare Mohammed as a true prophet of the bible and then ordered his plebs to convert to Islam. Mohammed's first wife and handler Khadeeja a Nazrene was groomed inside a Roman Catholic convent and given an abundant war chest by the Roman senatorial families to finance the coming holy wars against the Eastern Christians and the Torah Jews. We all saw how the US-UK used this Caliphatic Sunni axis to overthrow the secular Alawi govt of Syria backed by Iran and Russia. Unless the Russians understand it properly the third world war will also be a religious war with Freemasonry+Jesuitism+Sufi Luciferian Islam vs Shia Iran Orthodox world led by Russia and Confucian China. Men are typically too tribal to be human and good.
Do you have any proof of these assertions ?
This information you have is from the cartoons of Donald Duck.
Or you live at the top of the building and the elevator doesn't reach all the way up.
Low information leaders, like those in Kazakhstan, will respond intuitively to their perceptions of the winds of change. Russia is slowly grinding Ukraine, and the central Asian economic/political future is obviously shared between Russia and China, but the global media environment communicates the opposite. Russia needs a large, catalyzing, unavoidable victory to swing perception back to reality. The slow grind has enormous drawbacks.
Iran has its hands full with the threat on its other border. It is not in a position to provoke Turkey right now, because Turkey is just the partner USrael needs to complete the coalition against Iran. Iran even ignored Azerbaijan's obvious complicity in Raisi's "accident", so fearful it is of antagonizing Azerbaijan right now.
Also, Iran is traditionally hostile towards Russia. It is only friendly now because it has the Hegemon foaming at its throat, and nowhere else to turn. But once the pressure eases, Iran will also stab Russia in the back.
As for Russia, it made the mistake of thinking Kazakhstan's elites are adults, and will make decisions that benefit Kazakhstan in the long run. Everyone judges by themselves, as the saying goes. But these elites are greedy, stupid narcissists, easy to manipulate and corrupt. Somehow the Russians didn't anticipate that---I think Naryshkin should be sacked for this failure.
I've already given my thoughts on China's policy in other comments in this thread.
Iran themselves had a hand in the helicopter crash. It happened after Raisi threatened to raze Israel to the ground.
Just like they had a hand in the assassination of Hamas leaders in Tehran
That's pure hasbara bullshit. If Khamenei didn't like Raisi's line, he could just have said no, rather than murder his own, with all the attendant risks. What you are implying makes exactly zero sense, except as an Israeli fantasy.
ok, I buy your version.
But why even fly to Azerbaijan when the relationship between the countries is not good, when Azerbaijan has thoughts of bringing back part of Iran's territory that has an Azeri majority?
If you ignore Russia and China, there is not a damn country in the world that can be strong without the cabal's approval of well-being, and Iran in particular. Don't forget that the cabal is in Iran too, but whether it is a western or eastern cabal, the future will tell. What do you know if Raisi was a loyal Iranian or a Mossad camouflage.
I would have wished that he had leveled the ground in Israel, if he were genuine.
They backed Hamas, so how the hell can Mossad assassinate Hamas leaders inside Tehran?
There's a number of reasons a politician might see a need to talk with a neighbor, even if that neighbor is not very friendly. Something the Euroidiots fail to understand.
As for infiltrating Tehran, there is an old and numerous Jewish diaspora in Iran. Whenever there are Jews mixed with the natives, Mossad has ready-made agents.
nicely explained.
Thumbs up.
You don't see such visits between Russia and the Baltic countries, there are several examples of that. But I have to assume that each individual case is unique and alone in its kind.
Well, Iran is one of the worst affected countries when it comes to the infection of desert rabies. Originates from the time when Babylon imprisoned the majority of them because it was difficult to tame them, until the boy lover Alexander came and freed them and many stayed in current Iran or Iraq, .
With all due respect to your hypothesis/truth, I have a very hard time believing that Iran on the left didn't have a hand in the helicopter crash, I may be naive.
They only cheat or threat or corrupt the right bastards.