One of their leading foreign affairs commentators argued that an inflection point has already supposedly been reached whereby Russia’s strategic defeat is predestined, but upon scrutinizing the claims that they presented in support of that conclusion, it’s clear that this isn’t the case at all.
Without flattery, here is a brilliant article. Brilliant in both substance and form. Impressive — one of the ten best articles by Andrew that I have read in all these years as a reader.
Excellent reminder of the specious biases of both parties to the conflict, a necessary reminder that since the spring of 2022, this is no longer a war of Russia against Ukraine but against all of NATO. It puts into perspective the scale of Russia's successful resistance against the Western giant, which was still considered invincible just four years ago by the NAFOs with their compulsive vision of Russian failure. And it also puts into perspective the scale of the challenge for 145 million Russians against more than a billion Westerners, for the PRNR hotheads.
And finally, a salutary reminder of the three objective points that allow for a real assessment of the situation. Without Potemkinism, whether Russian or Western. Bravo. A very fine exercise.
The problem we have is that the USA have pulled off the masterstroke of transforming this conflict — which THEY FABRICATED FROM SCRATCH — into an existential question for both Russia and... for Europe (to the point that those Yankee idiots with their goldfish brains end up believing their own lies as if they were ironclad truth and claim that it was the Europeans who created this mess). But not for the USA. They have succeeded in creating two layers of enemies for Russia. Bravo, artist.
Russia may perhaps lose, but if it gives in now, it loses everything. So perhaps the Russian 'elites' are rubbing their hands, thinking that this will mean the return of plunder for businessmen and lucrative Western honors and positions for academics. And perhaps even the common Russian people think that there is no reason the Yeltsin years and their miseries will return, and that they too can live like peaceful little Western porkers. Perhaps they think that. If so, they are wrong. Seriously wrong. But they are the masters of their own destiny. That is Putin's immense legacy. They can squander it, just as the French squandered de Gaulle's legacy and the English squandered Keynes's (after the Churchill disaster and before the Thatcher disaster). They have a choice. A rare gift before history for a people.
I am yet to meet any. Although it's true that the europeans did nothing to dissuade Ukraine. Those dumb college kids on Maidan thought that they were going to be allowed to emigrate if an association agreement was signed.
If Brussels had clean hands, they could have said in very clear terms that Ukraine would never join the EU. The EU, with freedom to travel, and handouts, is what they wanted, not NATO.
Without the pull from the EU this never would have happened.
Also, there's the Minsk Agreement, a treachery that was done by the Europeans alone.
Last but not least, Europe's human rights groups could have validated the Ukrainian shelling of civilians in Donbas...instead they muddied the water into a he-said, she-said hiding the fundamental justification.
Russia will never give up Ukraine. They are identical people, same DNA, same Othodox religion, same alpha bet, every day words are identical with slight variation here & there.
I really appreciate this take as a counter-balance to a lot of the noise on Russia-Ukr. Nice to have some well supported optimism once in a while.
I have to say, however, there are so many reasons for pessimism that it's difficult for me to fully embrace this pov as much as I want to.
McGurk's piece, coming on top of the recent House vote to allocate more Ukr money and in the context of the entire "Ukr is winning" western narrative, has the appearance of added provocation, increasing the heat on Putin in the supposed elite dispute over how aggressively to prosecute the war.
In looking at the totality of what the US is doing around the world there's little sign I can see that the neocons have decided to pack it all up and come home.
All those US troops are still in Europe, even if the UK has more horses than tanks. And the Europeans themselves seem relatively desperate for both energy and some of Russia's time zones. What else is there for Europe except to fight another war?
And re Iran, I see this slowly spreading narrative the "Iran already has nukes and that's why we've now gone silent and are ~really negotiating". Baloney. Iran wouldnt be so stupid as to challenge US/Israel in the way, bc it would simply be suicidal. A couple of 15kt weapons against a single 700kt weapon or even Israel's 50-100kt weapons? Lol.
That "Iran has weapons" narrative is setting them up for a nuclear strike by the US to end the stalemate. To me, this is the biggest indicator the neocons havent given up on their project. That they are willing to go this far, nuking a country that it can't touch otherwise, shows how far they're willing to go.
It would not surprise me in the least if Europe looked at its population in comparison to Russia's and concluded there's no good reason not to go take Russia. Worth rereading Machiavelli to get a sense of how these people think.
On top of all that, how Russia could possibly stomach negotiations with US/Europe is hard to comprehend.
This revolting idea that Iran already has the bomb is a piece of filth originally spread by none other than the chief buffoon, Pepe Escobar, and relayed by his usual clique of crackpots, including Larry Johnson. What is downright scandalous is that by spreading this kind of rumor, these bastards are giving credence to Israel, which has been warning the entire world about this very subject, and they are putting in an awkward position all those who say that no, the Iranians do not have the bomb, and they are justifying the current war against Iran. And the worst part? These same bastards are now denying what they themselves have been hammering for years. Are they absolutely dumb or are they scoundrel ? It's high time Escobar took off his fake nose and told us who pays him.
I personally dislike Stanislav after he he spazzed out in a reply to one of my X posts, I called him out, and he blocked me. I genuinely didn't expect that, and despite disagreeing with what I consider to be his generally over-the-top takes, I hitherto thought that he was a decent person:
Thanks. That’s too bad. He has become a tad sus I guess now that he sure does get around. I follow Russians With Attitude and Duran and Intel Slava and GeoPolitics and Empire. And now you! 🤷♂️ I’m sure this topic is discussed in Russia more than the media available to me.
There was a baseball player here in the U.S. back in the day Yogi Berra, who said it best. IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER so true ! Helmer and Robrts bumping their gums about one big K.O. are fulla crap. It's gonna take derailing the money train to win this. Ronald Reagan out spent the Soviet Union to win the Cold War, President Putin is returning the favor. Organized Jewry is the main force behind this, and dumbass Goyim can't see thru the B.S. from the MSM They're doing to Russia the same thing they did to Germany, but Mother Russia has God Almighty on their side and President Putin is not Adolph Hitler.
How do they even think a Russian defeat would look like? Russian army defeated on the battlefield? Routed from Crimea? And they imagine this would take place in an orderly manner by a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons, and countless of other forms of escalation? They think they could contain this? Or is the idea that Russia would collapse and disintegrate? Their ideal exit scenario is that a nation with 7000 nukes is going to collapse into a number of separate warring factions? Or is it that some other internal faction is going to oust Putin? Seems rather obvious that this somebody would be much more radical than Putin. And if Russia was taken out, what about their mineral and energy exports? Absent those would throw the world into a massive economic depression. Probably mass famine in poorer countries.
It doesn't really appear to me that they have though this through.
Andrew, what do make of the claim that Russia has lost substantial momentum on the battlefield since 2023?
The Economist has presented an analysis that seems to show that 2026 has been the least successful year for Russian forces since the start of the SMO, in terms of territorial gains and the severity of AFU strategic deep strikes.
Of course, the Establishment press assiduously avoids a similar analysis of the Ukrainian situation, which would probably be sufficient to expose this hollow triumphalism when considering the abjectly dire state of Ukraine.
What seems to be undeniable is that Russia’s overall strategic situation was greatly downgraded by the NATO/US expansions, a decades long process. This does not mean that MAD is not functional anymore but the overall balance was shifted. The central question for the future still is: Will the US/Israel Deep State cross the last border to La-La-Land and initiate a biological/nuclear war or they will patiently wait to be washed into the oceans by an all encompassing Populist Wave in the Western World? Either way, by forcing the hegemony issue they worked their way into a dead end.
The only winners of this war are the US Military Industrial Complex, Wall Street and the oil industry. To claim that Russia has lost is bizarre. It has reclaimed over twenty percent of its former territory and has reduced Ukraine to a bankrupt, depopulated, shell of a country. And it has defeated NATO’s attempt to formally include Ukraine in the organization. The land that Russia has seized is also some of Ukraine’s most mineral rich real estate. Most of Western Europe is in, or near recession and the major political leaders are on the verge of being replaced by nationalist parties.Russians are the other hand higher growth rates and have a higher Peoples Purchasing Power than their Western neighbors and have earned the respect of most of the Global South.
Just to put things in perspective, the Western MSM trots out these articles when Russia is clearly winning, not losing. This pattern has been well established over the past four years. If you want a good military perspective on what is going on, read Black Mountain Analysis on Substack.
Brett McGurk served in senior national security roles under four U.S. presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. As such he would be quite familiar with the US and NATO efforts to destabilise Ukraine, particularly up to the Maidan outing of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. As such it is most unlikely that he would now be considered a reliable source of intelligence concerning the future of Russia. "Intelligence" in both meanings of the word.
Without flattery, here is a brilliant article. Brilliant in both substance and form. Impressive — one of the ten best articles by Andrew that I have read in all these years as a reader.
Excellent reminder of the specious biases of both parties to the conflict, a necessary reminder that since the spring of 2022, this is no longer a war of Russia against Ukraine but against all of NATO. It puts into perspective the scale of Russia's successful resistance against the Western giant, which was still considered invincible just four years ago by the NAFOs with their compulsive vision of Russian failure. And it also puts into perspective the scale of the challenge for 145 million Russians against more than a billion Westerners, for the PRNR hotheads.
And finally, a salutary reminder of the three objective points that allow for a real assessment of the situation. Without Potemkinism, whether Russian or Western. Bravo. A very fine exercise.
The problem we have is that the USA have pulled off the masterstroke of transforming this conflict — which THEY FABRICATED FROM SCRATCH — into an existential question for both Russia and... for Europe (to the point that those Yankee idiots with their goldfish brains end up believing their own lies as if they were ironclad truth and claim that it was the Europeans who created this mess). But not for the USA. They have succeeded in creating two layers of enemies for Russia. Bravo, artist.
Russia may perhaps lose, but if it gives in now, it loses everything. So perhaps the Russian 'elites' are rubbing their hands, thinking that this will mean the return of plunder for businessmen and lucrative Western honors and positions for academics. And perhaps even the common Russian people think that there is no reason the Yeltsin years and their miseries will return, and that they too can live like peaceful little Western porkers. Perhaps they think that. If so, they are wrong. Seriously wrong. But they are the masters of their own destiny. That is Putin's immense legacy. They can squander it, just as the French squandered de Gaulle's legacy and the English squandered Keynes's (after the Churchill disaster and before the Thatcher disaster). They have a choice. A rare gift before history for a people.
Thank you, Darras, I truly appreciate your praise!
You deserve them
Russia will not lose!
Amen.
Why do you say that?
I don't find the article outstanding. Perhaps because I've grown accustomed to Andrew's quality.
Andrew and "Worldlines" are my favorite sources for geopolitical topics.
Yes, but this article is particularly good in its building.
Agree.
Nobody thinks that the europeans created this mess. However the europeans adopted it as their own.
Sometimes, I hear or read Yankees who speak really like that.
But yes, incredibly, they adopted it, against all their own interests. It's amazing and appalling.
I am yet to meet any. Although it's true that the europeans did nothing to dissuade Ukraine. Those dumb college kids on Maidan thought that they were going to be allowed to emigrate if an association agreement was signed.
If Brussels had clean hands, they could have said in very clear terms that Ukraine would never join the EU. The EU, with freedom to travel, and handouts, is what they wanted, not NATO.
Without the pull from the EU this never would have happened.
Also, there's the Minsk Agreement, a treachery that was done by the Europeans alone.
Last but not least, Europe's human rights groups could have validated the Ukrainian shelling of civilians in Donbas...instead they muddied the water into a he-said, she-said hiding the fundamental justification.
Russia will never give up Ukraine. They are identical people, same DNA, same Othodox religion, same alpha bet, every day words are identical with slight variation here & there.
I really appreciate this take as a counter-balance to a lot of the noise on Russia-Ukr. Nice to have some well supported optimism once in a while.
I have to say, however, there are so many reasons for pessimism that it's difficult for me to fully embrace this pov as much as I want to.
McGurk's piece, coming on top of the recent House vote to allocate more Ukr money and in the context of the entire "Ukr is winning" western narrative, has the appearance of added provocation, increasing the heat on Putin in the supposed elite dispute over how aggressively to prosecute the war.
In looking at the totality of what the US is doing around the world there's little sign I can see that the neocons have decided to pack it all up and come home.
All those US troops are still in Europe, even if the UK has more horses than tanks. And the Europeans themselves seem relatively desperate for both energy and some of Russia's time zones. What else is there for Europe except to fight another war?
And re Iran, I see this slowly spreading narrative the "Iran already has nukes and that's why we've now gone silent and are ~really negotiating". Baloney. Iran wouldnt be so stupid as to challenge US/Israel in the way, bc it would simply be suicidal. A couple of 15kt weapons against a single 700kt weapon or even Israel's 50-100kt weapons? Lol.
That "Iran has weapons" narrative is setting them up for a nuclear strike by the US to end the stalemate. To me, this is the biggest indicator the neocons havent given up on their project. That they are willing to go this far, nuking a country that it can't touch otherwise, shows how far they're willing to go.
It would not surprise me in the least if Europe looked at its population in comparison to Russia's and concluded there's no good reason not to go take Russia. Worth rereading Machiavelli to get a sense of how these people think.
On top of all that, how Russia could possibly stomach negotiations with US/Europe is hard to comprehend.
This revolting idea that Iran already has the bomb is a piece of filth originally spread by none other than the chief buffoon, Pepe Escobar, and relayed by his usual clique of crackpots, including Larry Johnson. What is downright scandalous is that by spreading this kind of rumor, these bastards are giving credence to Israel, which has been warning the entire world about this very subject, and they are putting in an awkward position all those who say that no, the Iranians do not have the bomb, and they are justifying the current war against Iran. And the worst part? These same bastards are now denying what they themselves have been hammering for years. Are they absolutely dumb or are they scoundrel ? It's high time Escobar took off his fake nose and told us who pays him.
I strongly suspect they’ve outted themselves as being something other than what they presented. Escobar is the bigger surprise, for sure.
Def hoping to be wrong that they want to nuke Iran though. But honestly I see no other way out for the US.
YET Putin and the Kremlin seem to be purposelessly prolonging the war. I don’t get it. Even Stanislav Krapivnik ignores this issue-🤷♂️
I personally dislike Stanislav after he he spazzed out in a reply to one of my X posts, I called him out, and he blocked me. I genuinely didn't expect that, and despite disagreeing with what I consider to be his generally over-the-top takes, I hitherto thought that he was a decent person:
https://x.com/STANISKRAPIVNIK/status/2025476732845724040
Thanks. That’s too bad. He has become a tad sus I guess now that he sure does get around. I follow Russians With Attitude and Duran and Intel Slava and GeoPolitics and Empire. And now you! 🤷♂️ I’m sure this topic is discussed in Russia more than the media available to me.
There was a baseball player here in the U.S. back in the day Yogi Berra, who said it best. IT AIN'T OVER TILL IT'S OVER so true ! Helmer and Robrts bumping their gums about one big K.O. are fulla crap. It's gonna take derailing the money train to win this. Ronald Reagan out spent the Soviet Union to win the Cold War, President Putin is returning the favor. Organized Jewry is the main force behind this, and dumbass Goyim can't see thru the B.S. from the MSM They're doing to Russia the same thing they did to Germany, but Mother Russia has God Almighty on their side and President Putin is not Adolph Hitler.
How do they even think a Russian defeat would look like? Russian army defeated on the battlefield? Routed from Crimea? And they imagine this would take place in an orderly manner by a nation with thousands of nuclear weapons, and countless of other forms of escalation? They think they could contain this? Or is the idea that Russia would collapse and disintegrate? Their ideal exit scenario is that a nation with 7000 nukes is going to collapse into a number of separate warring factions? Or is it that some other internal faction is going to oust Putin? Seems rather obvious that this somebody would be much more radical than Putin. And if Russia was taken out, what about their mineral and energy exports? Absent those would throw the world into a massive economic depression. Probably mass famine in poorer countries.
It doesn't really appear to me that they have though this through.
Andrew, what do make of the claim that Russia has lost substantial momentum on the battlefield since 2023?
The Economist has presented an analysis that seems to show that 2026 has been the least successful year for Russian forces since the start of the SMO, in terms of territorial gains and the severity of AFU strategic deep strikes.
Of course, the Establishment press assiduously avoids a similar analysis of the Ukrainian situation, which would probably be sufficient to expose this hollow triumphalism when considering the abjectly dire state of Ukraine.
"...Brett McGurk, the Biden administration's National Security Council coordinator..."
That effectively says it all and guarantees the foundation for targeted disinformation.
What seems to be undeniable is that Russia’s overall strategic situation was greatly downgraded by the NATO/US expansions, a decades long process. This does not mean that MAD is not functional anymore but the overall balance was shifted. The central question for the future still is: Will the US/Israel Deep State cross the last border to La-La-Land and initiate a biological/nuclear war or they will patiently wait to be washed into the oceans by an all encompassing Populist Wave in the Western World? Either way, by forcing the hegemony issue they worked their way into a dead end.
The Western propaganda that Russia is losing is being amplified in the west media so that the upcoming defeat treaty looks like a victory.
The only winners of this war are the US Military Industrial Complex, Wall Street and the oil industry. To claim that Russia has lost is bizarre. It has reclaimed over twenty percent of its former territory and has reduced Ukraine to a bankrupt, depopulated, shell of a country. And it has defeated NATO’s attempt to formally include Ukraine in the organization. The land that Russia has seized is also some of Ukraine’s most mineral rich real estate. Most of Western Europe is in, or near recession and the major political leaders are on the verge of being replaced by nationalist parties.Russians are the other hand higher growth rates and have a higher Peoples Purchasing Power than their Western neighbors and have earned the respect of most of the Global South.
Just to put things in perspective, the Western MSM trots out these articles when Russia is clearly winning, not losing. This pattern has been well established over the past four years. If you want a good military perspective on what is going on, read Black Mountain Analysis on Substack.
Mouhahahaha.
Aleks of Black Mountain was so pathetically mistaken about Iran, Axis of Resistance and events of October 2023 that he definitely stopped his job.
You have not something more relevant please?
Read the latest BMA post. It is authored by Mike Mihajlovic. Subject "Battle of Kiev". I thought it was pretty good.
Brett McGurk served in senior national security roles under four U.S. presidents: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. As such he would be quite familiar with the US and NATO efforts to destabilise Ukraine, particularly up to the Maidan outing of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. As such it is most unlikely that he would now be considered a reliable source of intelligence concerning the future of Russia. "Intelligence" in both meanings of the word.
So you're saying he's a cynic. Well, no shit. That doesn't make him wrong.
No, he said that, according to US intelligence tradition, he can lie and cheat.
Yes, he lies and cheats. Winners do that. That still doesn't make him wrong.