"Western support for Ukraine is facing growing political fatigue and domestic fractures, particularly in the US and the EU. In your view, how long is the West’s “sustainability threshold” before they feel compelled to pressure Kyiv into entering negotiations with territorial concessions?"
Nobody cares what the US or european public thinks or likes or wants.
Concerning Iran, the American and Israeli leadership are entirely indifferent to the suffering around the world and will not hesitate to go nuclear if that is what it takes to win, keeping in mind that there is no agreement with Iran that will satisfy Israel.
Start with this fact Russia has the most nuclear weapons in the world. with missiles to deliver them all over the world. Russia is the EURASIAN power. Russia is 40% of Europand Has good relations with IRAN , CHINA, INDIA. & all the Asian countries except Israel. USA challeging is SMALL. It only tries to influence through Jewish sources (AIPAC) America you ties the wrong chain around your own neck. It is of your own doing.
Yet, a non-negligible fraction of the Russian elite is thoroughly "mentally colonized", stuck in an "eternal 1991", and still wishes that its expensively-educated children eventually work at McKinsey or Goldman Sachs instead of, say, at the FSB.
My dear Andrew, you know what I think of all the good things about the NRPR... That said, I admit that I have a radically different reading from yours on several points.
For point 1: if the presentation of your alternative — which can be summarized as 'either Russia loses a little or it loses a lot' — remains hypothetical, honesty should have pushed you to affirm that, in your view, Russia has already lost this war. It is true that historically, radical reversals at this stage of a war are rare, and indeed, given its initial objectives, Russia has lost. But we have seen wars turn around radically, not because of internal changes but essentially because of the intervention of a third party. Perhaps the conclusion of this point should have been: 'Either Russia receives massive help from powerful third parties, or it loses. And in the current state of affairs, nothing indicates that any powerful third party has changed its point of view since Kazan 2023.'
Point 2: Allow me to tease you again by accusing you of being 'politically correct.' You know full well that not only have these strikes changed nothing, but moreover the Kremlin is already significantly backtracking. From 'we're going to smash everything,' we've moved to 'yes, but not everything, and especially not what matters, and also maybe...'
Point 4 is where my reading is radically different. OK for the vision of the Axis of Resistance. I would even be more categorical about its level of weakness. That said, your description tending to say that it was the Gulf countries that demanded this war and that they revealed themselves to be fragile by refusing to carry out reprisals is simply staggering to me. It is clear that, first of all, there is not 'the Gulf countries' but different groups of states with different and even antagonistic views and interests. But whether they are gutless lackeys like the United Arab Emirates, shrewd operators like the emirs of Qatar or Kuwait, or in near‑resistance like the Saudis or Oman, it is very clear that they are all victims of Israel and the USA, which must have twisted their arms violently by promising a short, risk‑free war to get them to accept the use of their territory and airspace. Today, on the contrary, it is the USA that appears weak — in its inability to achieve its goals, the quagmire it has gotten itself into, and above all its inability to defend its Gulf allies. So no, I absolutely disagree with your description of the Gulf countries.
"“Resistance Axis” no longer functions as a united military alliance like it once did just a few years ago." It never did. I see absolutely no shred of evidence in the past or present that there was that much coordination between these groups that are rooted in place and have all local interests and perspectives.
IMHO, Trump's war with Iran has nothing to do with China and everything to do with Israel. The Zionists can see Trump may be their last throw of the dice to become a regional hegemon. Alas, it achieved the opposite.
The reason Trump's war with Iran has nothing to do with China is the same reason why he was forced to make a snappy U-turn on his tariffs. With their huge petroleum reserves, Xi knows what matters is who must blink first. Even if the Middle East blows up, he knows who will be more badly damaged strategically, and who has the DNA to be more resilient going forward. If the war was waged to contain China, does anybody think any of Colby's alliance partners got the message?
If I were in Xi's position, I would also 'play nice' - then sit by the river, sip tea, and watch the bodies of my enemies float by. It has worked wonders so far.
"Western support for Ukraine is facing growing political fatigue and domestic fractures, particularly in the US and the EU. In your view, how long is the West’s “sustainability threshold” before they feel compelled to pressure Kyiv into entering negotiations with territorial concessions?"
Nobody cares what the US or european public thinks or likes or wants.
Concerning Iran, the American and Israeli leadership are entirely indifferent to the suffering around the world and will not hesitate to go nuclear if that is what it takes to win, keeping in mind that there is no agreement with Iran that will satisfy Israel.
"...newfound dependence on China". This should be the least of the worries at the moment.
Start with this fact Russia has the most nuclear weapons in the world. with missiles to deliver them all over the world. Russia is the EURASIAN power. Russia is 40% of Europand Has good relations with IRAN , CHINA, INDIA. & all the Asian countries except Israel. USA challeging is SMALL. It only tries to influence through Jewish sources (AIPAC) America you ties the wrong chain around your own neck. It is of your own doing.
Yet, a non-negligible fraction of the Russian elite is thoroughly "mentally colonized", stuck in an "eternal 1991", and still wishes that its expensively-educated children eventually work at McKinsey or Goldman Sachs instead of, say, at the FSB.
They have to take care with West. Like in the 90's, It's possibly their daughters who will work on pavement and in brothels of all the west.
My dear Andrew, you know what I think of all the good things about the NRPR... That said, I admit that I have a radically different reading from yours on several points.
For point 1: if the presentation of your alternative — which can be summarized as 'either Russia loses a little or it loses a lot' — remains hypothetical, honesty should have pushed you to affirm that, in your view, Russia has already lost this war. It is true that historically, radical reversals at this stage of a war are rare, and indeed, given its initial objectives, Russia has lost. But we have seen wars turn around radically, not because of internal changes but essentially because of the intervention of a third party. Perhaps the conclusion of this point should have been: 'Either Russia receives massive help from powerful third parties, or it loses. And in the current state of affairs, nothing indicates that any powerful third party has changed its point of view since Kazan 2023.'
Point 2: Allow me to tease you again by accusing you of being 'politically correct.' You know full well that not only have these strikes changed nothing, but moreover the Kremlin is already significantly backtracking. From 'we're going to smash everything,' we've moved to 'yes, but not everything, and especially not what matters, and also maybe...'
Point 3 below.
Point 4 is where my reading is radically different. OK for the vision of the Axis of Resistance. I would even be more categorical about its level of weakness. That said, your description tending to say that it was the Gulf countries that demanded this war and that they revealed themselves to be fragile by refusing to carry out reprisals is simply staggering to me. It is clear that, first of all, there is not 'the Gulf countries' but different groups of states with different and even antagonistic views and interests. But whether they are gutless lackeys like the United Arab Emirates, shrewd operators like the emirs of Qatar or Kuwait, or in near‑resistance like the Saudis or Oman, it is very clear that they are all victims of Israel and the USA, which must have twisted their arms violently by promising a short, risk‑free war to get them to accept the use of their territory and airspace. Today, on the contrary, it is the USA that appears weak — in its inability to achieve its goals, the quagmire it has gotten itself into, and above all its inability to defend its Gulf allies. So no, I absolutely disagree with your description of the Gulf countries.
For point 3, do you mean that Russia is wasting its time with vain efforts in Africa and Latin America while the heart of development is in Asia?
Point 4 below
"“Resistance Axis” no longer functions as a united military alliance like it once did just a few years ago." It never did. I see absolutely no shred of evidence in the past or present that there was that much coordination between these groups that are rooted in place and have all local interests and perspectives.
Concerning Iran, the Hajj in Saoudia ends tomorrow, Saturday.
Sunday, the markets are closed. So I think Sunday will see the resumption of large‑scale bombings by USrael.
Fasten your belts.
IMHO, Trump's war with Iran has nothing to do with China and everything to do with Israel. The Zionists can see Trump may be their last throw of the dice to become a regional hegemon. Alas, it achieved the opposite.
The reason Trump's war with Iran has nothing to do with China is the same reason why he was forced to make a snappy U-turn on his tariffs. With their huge petroleum reserves, Xi knows what matters is who must blink first. Even if the Middle East blows up, he knows who will be more badly damaged strategically, and who has the DNA to be more resilient going forward. If the war was waged to contain China, does anybody think any of Colby's alliance partners got the message?
If I were in Xi's position, I would also 'play nice' - then sit by the river, sip tea, and watch the bodies of my enemies float by. It has worked wonders so far.