It’s very rare for figures in the Alt-Media Community to change their views, let alone publicly account for why they did so, with the overwhelming majority instead either outright denying “politically inconvenient” news or casually dismissing it as part of some “5D chess master plan” conspiracy theory.
Pour ma part et depuis (trop ?) longtemps, j'évoque la pusillanimité de la Russie vis-à-vis de ses " partenaires " qui ont franchi les mille et une " lignes rouges " dessinées par le Kremlin depuis ces 4,5 années (a minima).
Or, aujourd'hui et à force, votre commentaire me parait clairement être plus " constructif " que ma " diplomatie " !
For my part, and for (too?) long now, I’ve been pointing out Russia’s timidity toward its “partners,” who have crossed the thousand and one “red lines” drawn by the Kremlin over the past 4.5 years (at the very least).
However, today—and after all this time—your comment clearly strikes me as more “constructive” than my “diplomacy”!
"Frankly speaking, it most definitely should, otherwise Turkiye will mistake Russia’s “patience” for weakness with all that entails."
Funny, soon as I read that sentence, i thought "Turkey already does", and the sentence after that read "In fact, that might already be the case, ergo why Turkiye is going through with this in the first place. "
Given the "new" understanding, can I say the Russian sale of S-400 to Turkiye was a mistake? The US drove Turkiye out of the F-35 program but perhaps Turkiye had wanted to get out anyway. Besides, it is hard to imagine Turkiye has the budget for F-35. What Turkiye really wanted from the F-35 program is to participate in the manufacturing of F-35 to learn technologies to develop its own 5th-gen jet fighters.
Maybe Russia can consider S310, etc., as an "improved" (with a specific kill switch, IFF backdoors, and cripplings) S-300 for export
I supported the sale and closer ties with Turkiye at the time, but Russia struggled to turn that into a more full-fledged geostrategic partnership.
Their trade is diversified and impressive, but that never translates into more than agreeing not to clash in Syria, Armenia, or Libya.
Sure, that’s an accomplishment in itself, but the expectation was that the S-400s would lead to more military-technical cooperation and meaningful geopolitical ties too.
There have been two schools of thought on Turkiye here since I’ve been in Moscow.
The first is suspicious of Turkiye and considers it a “frenemy” and the second thinks that it could turn into a decent geopolitical partner.
The second won out with the S-400 sale and Putin seems to be a supporter of this school, while it’s always been my belief that the military and intel agencies are from the first one.
The MFA, in my opinion, got so far into the first friendly school’s teachings and associated expectations that Turkiye realized it and figured out how to manipulate their perceptions.
That’s why MFA spokeswoman Zakharova was so surprised 4.5 years into the SMO that Turkiye is sending so many US-prodigies arms to Ukraine, she sincerely seemed caught off guard and I believe most of her ministry was too.
Once again, we can discern what I truly believe to be evidence of broken feedback loops, which in this case were never acknowledged and thus never repaired till it was too late.
If Russia escalated with Turkiye in asymmetrical ways after ever Ukrainian-related provocation from it, maybe Turkiye would have been deterred as it’s only doing this because it doesn’t fear any consequences after the MFA seemingly never advised Putin to even threaten any consequences.
I think there is a problem with the personal touch Erdogan has imprinted on Turkish foreign relations, his mercurial and very opportunistic nature (not unlike Trump), who dreams of a Turcik confederation, run of course from Ankara. I don't think Australians really want to be run from London or from Washington, DC, why the Turkmens or Azeris or other Turcik stans would want to really suborn themselves to the Ottoman Sultan? Something that Poutine doesn't seem to recognize in either of the two...
In my view, there’s a difference between socio-economic Pan-Turkish and political-military Pan-Turkism.
The first is fine from the perspective of Russian interests (it’s somewhat of a challenge for Russian influence but not dangerous), while the second is threatening.
Unfortunately, there are some here who support the second form of Pan-Turkism as allegedly weakening US influence, which I think is a totally crackpot prediction.
To the contrary, it’ll only expand US influence across those countries. Those pushing this nonsense are either naive or worse, especially after TRIPP was announced.
Yes. But mostly drones and drone parts. Large orders were given using USD and EURO with front-companies to strongly-military-tied Da-Jiang (DJI International). China also sold more lethal weapons, but that was before SMO. Once SMO started, officially no direct sales to Ukraine. But one has to ask about those transfer sales. China also sold to both sides during the Iraq-Iran wars (mostly weapons), and so did Taiwan (mostly the non-weapon military supplies, such as uniforms, belts, harnesses, etc.)
Technically, the only way to prevent transfer sales is NOT to sell across national borders. Then you have smuggling to worry about.
No. That is why, sooner or later, the neutrals have to take sides. That is also an argument to suggest that Confucius posted a good moral standard precisely because the average Chinese were far below that standard.
What I am seeing is the long-overdue emergence of Eurasianism as a principle of political organisation. As responsible Eurasian neighbours, Türkiye and Russia agree on more than they disagree. Yes, Türkiye’s economy is dependent on Russian tourism, but Russia is similarly dependent on Türkiye as its main geographical release valve. This doesn’t, of course, mean that they agree on everything. But both countries are supremely pragmatic, which is the hallmark of good Eurasian neighbourliness. I’d expect Turkish arms manufacturers to continue to supply Ukraine for as long as the latter has payment means, i.e. not for much longer. Russia similarly arms both Pakistan and India. For as long as such weapons are “defensive”, there shouldn’t be a problem with this. The western press / spook propaganda network appears to be preparing its public for a “Saigon moment” vis-a-vis Ukraine, so hopefully something will happen there soon.
"Mediterranean Pirates: Here's Why We Need a Powerful Navy
All it took was for Vladimir Putin to threaten (https://t.me/rybar/82406) retaliatory measures in response to the arrests and seizures of ships from the so-called “ghost fleet” by European countries, and Europe decided to test Russia’s reaction by seizing an oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea.
This time, as part of the EU’s Operation IRINI, the crew of the Italian Navy frigate Paolo Thaon di Revel seized the oil tanker MV Sun. According to Kaja Kallas, the operation was carried out to “verify the ship’s flag” due to suspicions of ties to Russia.
For the West, such actions against Russian shipping represent a gradual testing of limits—to see how far they can go with ship seizures and inspections without harming themselves." - https://t.me/rybarFR/22001
Turkey fucked Russia in Azerbaijan
Turkey fucked Russia in Armenia
Turkey fucked Russia in Syria
Turkey fucked Russia in Ukraine
Turkey is fucking Russia in Kazakhstan
Turkey is fucking Russia in Uzbekistan
Turkey is fucking Russia in Kirghizistan
Turkey is fucking Russia in Pakistan.
A very great russian expert just realised that's something wrong with Russia's ass.
Sometime, I ask myself if Russia finally don't like it.
Trivial et direct.
Pour ma part et depuis (trop ?) longtemps, j'évoque la pusillanimité de la Russie vis-à-vis de ses " partenaires " qui ont franchi les mille et une " lignes rouges " dessinées par le Kremlin depuis ces 4,5 années (a minima).
Or, aujourd'hui et à force, votre commentaire me parait clairement être plus " constructif " que ma " diplomatie " !
À suivre (côté Kremlin).
I wish my French was better. I think I would have enjoyed this much more...
Use Deepl Translator ;)
Trivial and straightforward.
For my part, and for (too?) long now, I’ve been pointing out Russia’s timidity toward its “partners,” who have crossed the thousand and one “red lines” drawn by the Kremlin over the past 4.5 years (at the very least).
However, today—and after all this time—your comment clearly strikes me as more “constructive” than my “diplomacy”!
To be continued (on the Kremlin side).
"Frankly speaking, it most definitely should, otherwise Turkiye will mistake Russia’s “patience” for weakness with all that entails."
Funny, soon as I read that sentence, i thought "Turkey already does", and the sentence after that read "In fact, that might already be the case, ergo why Turkiye is going through with this in the first place. "
Given the "new" understanding, can I say the Russian sale of S-400 to Turkiye was a mistake? The US drove Turkiye out of the F-35 program but perhaps Turkiye had wanted to get out anyway. Besides, it is hard to imagine Turkiye has the budget for F-35. What Turkiye really wanted from the F-35 program is to participate in the manufacturing of F-35 to learn technologies to develop its own 5th-gen jet fighters.
Maybe Russia can consider S310, etc., as an "improved" (with a specific kill switch, IFF backdoors, and cripplings) S-300 for export
I supported the sale and closer ties with Turkiye at the time, but Russia struggled to turn that into a more full-fledged geostrategic partnership.
Their trade is diversified and impressive, but that never translates into more than agreeing not to clash in Syria, Armenia, or Libya.
Sure, that’s an accomplishment in itself, but the expectation was that the S-400s would lead to more military-technical cooperation and meaningful geopolitical ties too.
There have been two schools of thought on Turkiye here since I’ve been in Moscow.
The first is suspicious of Turkiye and considers it a “frenemy” and the second thinks that it could turn into a decent geopolitical partner.
The second won out with the S-400 sale and Putin seems to be a supporter of this school, while it’s always been my belief that the military and intel agencies are from the first one.
The MFA, in my opinion, got so far into the first friendly school’s teachings and associated expectations that Turkiye realized it and figured out how to manipulate their perceptions.
That’s why MFA spokeswoman Zakharova was so surprised 4.5 years into the SMO that Turkiye is sending so many US-prodigies arms to Ukraine, she sincerely seemed caught off guard and I believe most of her ministry was too.
Once again, we can discern what I truly believe to be evidence of broken feedback loops, which in this case were never acknowledged and thus never repaired till it was too late.
If Russia escalated with Turkiye in asymmetrical ways after ever Ukrainian-related provocation from it, maybe Turkiye would have been deterred as it’s only doing this because it doesn’t fear any consequences after the MFA seemingly never advised Putin to even threaten any consequences.
I think there is a problem with the personal touch Erdogan has imprinted on Turkish foreign relations, his mercurial and very opportunistic nature (not unlike Trump), who dreams of a Turcik confederation, run of course from Ankara. I don't think Australians really want to be run from London or from Washington, DC, why the Turkmens or Azeris or other Turcik stans would want to really suborn themselves to the Ottoman Sultan? Something that Poutine doesn't seem to recognize in either of the two...
In my view, there’s a difference between socio-economic Pan-Turkish and political-military Pan-Turkism.
The first is fine from the perspective of Russian interests (it’s somewhat of a challenge for Russian influence but not dangerous), while the second is threatening.
Unfortunately, there are some here who support the second form of Pan-Turkism as allegedly weakening US influence, which I think is a totally crackpot prediction.
To the contrary, it’ll only expand US influence across those countries. Those pushing this nonsense are either naive or worse, especially after TRIPP was announced.
Thanks for your explanations.
Always welcome, thanks for your insightful questions!
Even China sells weapons to Ukraine.
Yes. But mostly drones and drone parts. Large orders were given using USD and EURO with front-companies to strongly-military-tied Da-Jiang (DJI International). China also sold more lethal weapons, but that was before SMO. Once SMO started, officially no direct sales to Ukraine. But one has to ask about those transfer sales. China also sold to both sides during the Iraq-Iran wars (mostly weapons), and so did Taiwan (mostly the non-weapon military supplies, such as uniforms, belts, harnesses, etc.)
Technically, the only way to prevent transfer sales is NOT to sell across national borders. Then you have smuggling to worry about.
Can you imagine France or Japan selling lethal weapons to Iran?
Can you imagine Germany or UK selling parts of attack drone to Iran?
No. That is why, sooner or later, the neutrals have to take sides. That is also an argument to suggest that Confucius posted a good moral standard precisely because the average Chinese were far below that standard.
What I am seeing is the long-overdue emergence of Eurasianism as a principle of political organisation. As responsible Eurasian neighbours, Türkiye and Russia agree on more than they disagree. Yes, Türkiye’s economy is dependent on Russian tourism, but Russia is similarly dependent on Türkiye as its main geographical release valve. This doesn’t, of course, mean that they agree on everything. But both countries are supremely pragmatic, which is the hallmark of good Eurasian neighbourliness. I’d expect Turkish arms manufacturers to continue to supply Ukraine for as long as the latter has payment means, i.e. not for much longer. Russia similarly arms both Pakistan and India. For as long as such weapons are “defensive”, there shouldn’t be a problem with this. The western press / spook propaganda network appears to be preparing its public for a “Saigon moment” vis-a-vis Ukraine, so hopefully something will happen there soon.
Who's Afraid of Vladimir Putin's Russia?
"Mediterranean Pirates: Here's Why We Need a Powerful Navy
All it took was for Vladimir Putin to threaten (https://t.me/rybar/82406) retaliatory measures in response to the arrests and seizures of ships from the so-called “ghost fleet” by European countries, and Europe decided to test Russia’s reaction by seizing an oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea.
This time, as part of the EU’s Operation IRINI, the crew of the Italian Navy frigate Paolo Thaon di Revel seized the oil tanker MV Sun. According to Kaja Kallas, the operation was carried out to “verify the ship’s flag” due to suspicions of ties to Russia.
For the West, such actions against Russian shipping represent a gradual testing of limits—to see how far they can go with ship seizures and inspections without harming themselves." - https://t.me/rybarFR/22001
What else?