Russia envisages the improvement of relations with Pakistan enabling it to mediate a resolution to that country’s disputes with Afghanistan and India, per all parties’ request for its diplomatic assistance of course, in order to pioneer new energy and trade corridors to South Asia.
Congress MP Manish Tewari was speaking at a discussion last weekend about the “Implications for India vis-a-vis the West in backdrop of Axis of Russia-China-North Korea-Iran pivot of geography” when he remarked that “Our security and energy needs make us dependent on Russia while we need to be cognisant of the fact that Russia is not putting all its eggs in one basket (India) and is hedging its bet by trying to forge a relationship with Pakistan, our immediate and persistent security threat.”
The New Indian Express characterized his comments as implying the existence of an “axis” between Russia and Pakistan, but this couldn’t be further from the truth. These former rivals’ ties, which have noticeably improved over the past decade, aren’t aimed against India. Russia’s imperatives are to diversify its economic partners, particularly those that purchase its energy exports, and ideally one day pioneer energy and trade corridors to South Asia that would extend all the way to India.
This was explained in last week’s analysis about how “Russia’s grand geo-economic plan a step closer in Afghanistan” following Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu’s trip to Kabul. His promise to delist the Taliban from Russia’s list of banned organizations is driven by its desire to explore strategic cooperation in this context. It envisages turning Afghanistan into a regional oil hub, possibly building pipelines across it to South Asia (first to Pakistan and then to India), and developing a trade corridor.
Accordingly, cordial relations with Pakistan are required in order to bring this vision into fruition, and that explains why their ties have continued to strengthen. Pakistan’s tensions with Afghanistan and India have impeded this plan, but the hope is that the progress that Russia is making with Afghanistan and Pakistan can complement its strategic partnership with India to create the opportunity for mediating a resolution to them if all parties request its diplomatic assistance. That would be a game-changer.
South Asia is one of the world’s most populous regions whose market potential and energy needs will continue growing throughout the coming decades. Russia wants to literally fuel their economies and tap into their markets, which would be correspondingly facilitated by building pipelines to there via Afghanistan along with a parallel trade corridor. Not only would this be mutually beneficial for everyone involved, but the profits could incentivize Pakistan to compromise on its disputes with its neighbors.
Moreover, Russia would preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China by relying on South Asia as a collective economic counterweight, while Pakistan could reduce its own already existing dependence on China vis-à-vis Russia and Central Asia. As for India, the improved regional security situation that Russia wants to herald through its economic diplomacy with Pakistan would serve its national interests, and this could in turn avert potentially disproportionate dependence on the US.
Regardless of whatever may or may not happen, Indian officials like Tewari shouldn’t make the mistake of speculating that Russia’s ties with Pakistan are aimed against India, let alone that they constitute an “axis” in any sense. Just like India wouldn’t ever do anything against Russia’s interests, nor would Russia do anything against India’s. Their mutually complementary grand strategies to balance Eurasian affairs in the New Cold War preclude that possibility. This is an axiom of contemporary International Relations.
Corrigendum:- Manish Tiwari is no "Indian official" in the sense that he does not hold any post in the executive arm of the present Indian government. He has long been an official spokesman of the Congress Party, known for its Atlanticist views and slavish subservience to an Italian woman named Sonia Antonio Maino. This party has been in the opposition ever since premier Modi assumed office for his first term about a decade ago. The Congress Party, best known for its deeply anti-national posterboys like Muatma Muandis KhurramXand Ghandy and Morarji Desai, was founded by a Britisher named AO Hume for consolidating British rule over India. Today, this party has become the private army of an Italian agent saboteur from fascist Mussolinist family background, namely Sonia Antonio Maino Ghandy, who treats India as her private colonial fiefdom. Incidentally, the biological father of Congress supremo Sonia Antonio Maino was a hardcore Mussolini loyalist and confidate, and a member of Mussolini's thug militia. Manish Tiwari is the best loved spokesman of Sonia Antonio Maino, whose eagerness to ingratiate himself with the Italian woman knows no bounds. Manish Tiwari hails from a Brahminist priestcrafty familial background, and he adores his Italian boss Sonia Antonio Maino like crazy, likely because of his belief that the Italian woman has been co-opted by his clansmen into the self-obsessed so-called "Brahmin-genes cliche", much like another virulent Russia-hater named Karolina Goswami who is also of European (Pole) ethnicity and origin. Manish Tiwari, whose pronouncements echo the official stance of Congress supremo Sonia Antonio Maino, has never made any secret of his morbid dislike for Russia. Not long ago, he had castigated the Narendra Modi government for not condemning Russia, and taunted the Indian nation by saying that by not supporting Ukraine and its western allies against Russia, India has joined the comity of the "totalitarian" bloc of "nations like North Korea" instead of being in company of "democratic" nations. From what I see, Manish Tiwari is afflicted with the Shilba Shitty syndrome characterised by morbid adulation of the European man beyond the point of ignominous self-shaming. His admonishments to the Indian nation branding the latter as a member of what he calls as a "totalitarian bloc" seem to suggest that in his self-aggrandising preceptorial megalomania of playing conscience keeper, he does not consider himself part and parcel of "wretched" India, but rather reckons himself as some Brahminist preceptor perched on a Heavenly pedestal with all of its attendant pseudo-moralist delusions of self-superior self-rectitude.
Manish Tiwari's pontific pronouncements about India being isolated and all on its own, and his denunciation of India's brotherly relationship with countries such as Russia, do not resonate with the overwhelming majority of the Aryan Indian masses who do not buy his priestcrafty dogma which is alien to their ingrained ethos. Jats, Gujjars, Ahirs, Himachalis, Hindi speakers spread over a vast expanse of land from Kashmir to Bihar in India, who are integral parts of the casteless and classless Vedic Aryan society, are for the most part inalienably aligned with Russia as an article of faith, because they are inseparable parts of the same holistic unitarian civilisation. Manish Tiwari's "India is on its own" refrain is a nothing but a reverberation of the same false stance chaperoned by Karolina Goswami, who is a Polish intellectual saboteur peddling fake narratives in Poland's acrimonious disinformation war against Russia waged on Indian soil. Birds of a feather united under the umbrella of self-aggrandising super-feudalistic priestcraftism.
Soon after the commencement of the SMO in Ukraine, western corpimperialist churches had jettisoned their zombies and Dravidian priestcrafty racists in South Asia to wage an all out war of fake narratives against Russia, including forcible brainwashing of kids in the thousands of schools operated by this cabal with anti-Russia propaganda under pain of severe corporal punishment for defiance of such indoctrination, on the lines of the covert propaganda war which had been waged across missionary schools globally by western churches under the aegis of Polish-born Pope Vorticlaw alias Pope John Paul in the late 80's for dismembering the Soviet Union.
It is not as if Manish Tiwari is not himself cognizant of the points made by Mr Andrew Korybko in this article. The fact is that this man is simply enacting the mandate he has received from his Italian Boss Sonia Antonio Maino, and he does not care a fig even if such errands required of him by an Italian Mussolinist lady run counter to India's national interests. Patriotism and honesty do not figure high on priorities in his mind. For the record, Italy which is the native homeland of Manish Tiwari's boss and mentor Sonia Antonio Maino, is Pakistan's closest military partner and diplomatic ally and collaborates with that country on a gamut of hightech military projects including submarines which are crucial to Pakistan's ambitious power projection goals. It simply does not behove Manish Tiwari to call the kettle black by harping on Russia's benign business deals with Pakistan and misconstruing them as inimical to India. After all, just about every single western MNC firm operating in India has a formidable presence in Pakistan as well, and the United States is Pakistan's biggest arms supplier and military aid provider. The absurdity of Manish's contentions smelling a rat of anti-India motives in Russia's business engagement with Pakistan, finds echo in the lament of a partner in arms named Palki Sharma Upadhyaye of Wion vintage who has berated Russia's Northern Sea route maritime project by bemoaning that Russia will likely levy toll fees on third country foreign ships plying those sea lanes, as if it is immoral of Russia to consider charging transit fees within its own territorial waters despite incurring substantial upkeep costs on ice-breakers and the like to keep those routes navigable. In her overwhelming dislike of Russia, Palki has even glossed over the fact that India is an interested partner in that project when she has sort of made out that project to seem like something ominous for the entire world-at-large, and so her demarche does not make any sense at least from the point of Indian national interest.
Don't take the views of Manish Tewari seriously. He's an opposition leader who won by just ~3,000 votes in his constituency who is of the firm belief that whatever Modi does he opposes it. His party condemns India's disengagement pact with China as saying Modi surrendered India's sovereignty while it was his party which oversaw India's only defeat so far(1962 Sino Indian war). China used salami slicing and annexed Indian territory under his party's rule while his colleagues went about looting Indian money and left Indian army hung and dry. Currently except S Jaishankar, Modi and Ajit Doval ignore all Indian political voices as they're either incapable or domestic agenda driven to secure votes of minorities in foreign policy(that explains Tewari's opposition to war in Gaza to get "their" votes). For authentic voices follow people like Sreemoy Talukdar, Samir Saran(ORF)