24 Comments
User's avatar
Andrew Korybko's avatar

Lavrov and Zakharova, who I collectively refer to as LavZakh since they work in tandem to promote the top talking points of the day, did more than anyone else to inadvertently create false expectations among "Non-Russian Pro-Russians" (NRPRs) that inevitably led to deep disappointment when they didn't materialize in full.

For him to soberly acknowledge the challenges posed by Trump 2.0 and even vaguely allude to the setbacks of the past year is therefore a very positive development since it hints that the MFA is finally beginning to recognize objective geopolitical reality and might maybe make the reforms required for more accurately assessing everything and thus formulating better policies.

Zakharova also hinted at the same by declaring in a recent interview that multipolarity "will have to be fought for", unlike the very strong but nevertheless always "plausibly deniable" innuendo pushed by her and her boss that this is supposedly inevitable, a walk in the park, and the US-led Western unipolarity is already in the dustbin of history so no need to worry about its revival:

https://www.rt.com/news/632344-multipolar-world-zakharova-moscow/

Andrew Korybko's avatar

The absolute best-case scenario would be if they finally abandon "Potemkinism" and do their utmost to ensure that everyone below them from other diplomats to publicly financed media and top NRPR influencers follow suit:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/potemkinism-is-responsible-for-false

I'm not getting my hopes up since this approach is so deeply ingrained as to almost be inextricable from Russian strategic culture at present, but I'd be happy with even minor changes and the gradual acceptance that everything isn't "going according to plan".

Andrew Korybko's avatar

"Potemkinism" destroyed Russian policymaking by contaminating already arguably broken feedback loops and therefore further perpetuating "wishful thinking" among their ranks with all that entails for ineffective policy formulation.

Once "Potemkinist" narratives were injected into these feedback loops by top NRPR influencers being paraded around, feted like celebrities, and given access to a wide range of policymakers from Lavrov to Glazyev and on down, everything spiraled.

This development falsely reaffirmed the "wisdom" of policies that by then already urgently required reform, strategically disarming policymakers into thinking that "everything is indeed going according to plan" since "independent experts" say so.

What's ironic is that Russia's "global media ecosystem" used to point out the counterproductiveness of the West's version of "Potemkinsism" contaminating their policymaking community's feedback loops only for it to happen to Russia too.

All the false reassurances, "wishful thinking", and other characteristics of the alternative realities produced by "Potemkinism" that Russian policymakers at large now take for granted are all accelerating the rollback of Russian influence abroad.

The only way to defend and one day regain Russian influence where it's being seriously challenged and has already been lost respectively is to acknowledge that "Potemkinist" thought is at the root of these problems and excise it immediately.

For that to happen, an "ideational revolution" would have to occur within the MFA, but that's probably not going to happen anytime soon, especially since constructive critiques and sharing "politically incorrect" realities are treated as extreme taboos.

Nevertheless, for LavZakh to coincidentally acknowledge Russia's newfound foreign policy struggles under Trump 2.0 at roughly the same time, that's already progress that was hitherto considered practically impossible and deserves mild praise.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

In America most of the Potempkinism existed in the Republican Party and it really had to do with Republicans getting invested into the legacy of George W Bush and his asinine GWOT. Putin took the wrong lesson from Bush because he invaded Ukraine based on Bush’s WMD theory in which the West’s “WMD” was pushing our culture onto Ukrainians so that they become Westerners and thus wiping out 45 million people allied with Russia. The problem is the GWOT as managed by Bush was very expensive in terms of blood (7000 fallen) and treasure ($5 trillion) and ultimately counterproductive as it made America less safe.

Trump finally expunged Potempkinism from the GOP but it was much more difficult than people are aware of to expunge because in January 2021 the Republicans in Congress were still voting Liz Cheney into House leadership and they were preparing to shove a neocon DeSantis/Haley ticket down the throats of their supporters. Trump had no investment in the legacy of President Bush and so he eventually came to realize that surrendering to the Taliban made America stronger even though the neocon generals around in 2017 had advised Trump to escalate Afghanistan. So in February 2020 Trump finally surrendered to the Taliban and the IRA collapsed and America grew stronger. For some reason in 2021/22 Putin chose to follow the lead of Bush instead of the lead Trump?!?

Zach's avatar

That's an interesting read Gene. I do think the distance to Moscow, if NATO missiles were stationed in East Ukraine complicates things though.

Darras's avatar

A pile of bullshit.

Dubious speculation based on untruths

rakyat kecil's avatar

Andrew could you talk about what is being presently reported as internal Kremlin disagreement with Lavrovs recent (announcements can I use that term) and is it true Indian participated in the seizing of three tankers in the waters close to India which surely contradicts all BRICS propaganda.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Sure:

1. I haven't heard about any internal Kremlin disagreements over Lavrov's recent interview spree, but the spree of interviews itself was somewhat surprising to me since he was hitherto put on "time-out" over the past year as suggested by his de facto removal from talks with the US and Ukraine as well as his conspicuous absence from certain events with Putin where he was ordinarily expected to be present

2. I also haven't heard anything about India participating in those latest tanker seizures. Do you have a link to a reputable news outlet that you could share with me? If not, then maybe a tweet from a popular commentator?

Love never fails's avatar

Alle Ihre Artikel lese ich. Dieser hier scheint mir einer der Allerwichtigsten zu sein.

-

Warum? Es irritiert viele interessierte Leser der russischen Entwicklung, insbesondere der BRICS mehr und mehr, dass man sich vom Westen in der PR bislang in einem entscheidenden Punkt NICHT unterscheidet: Nämlich der Anpassung in der Herangehensweise durch Erkenntnisse und unbestreitbare Tatsachen im Laufe des Prozesses. Hier ist viel Kulisse.

-

Man hat sich für den langen Weg entschieden. Nicht nur in der Ukraine, wo man auf massive Flächenbombardements a'la USA verzichtet hat und den Weg zum Ende gehen will. (Wenn gleich ich nicht verstehen kann, wie man das Nazismus-Problem mit ihren Zellen in Kiew und Lwow lösen will.)

Wenn man diesen Weg jedoch gewählt hat, auch mit den BRICS, schien es schon länger, spätestens seit Trump 2.0, so als würde man den unvermeidlichen Veränderungen in der Länge des Weges kein Gewicht schenken.

Deswegen tut ihre Analyse gut.

Denn:

Dieser Aufbau einer Potemkinschen Kulisse einzig folgend dem russischen Stolz und seiner glorreichen Rolle für Europa im Großen Vaterländischen Krieg mit einer geplanten Zielsetzung ist natürlich das Werk von LawZakh in Erfüllung der Metastrategie des Kremls. Man sendet das Signal: Wir bleiben uns treu.

-

Als globaler Medienkonsument aus Europa muss man allerdings als fixes Faktum seit 2022 konstatieren:

Die wachsende, jedoch vergleichsweise noch immer kleine Masse an westlichen Medienkonsumenten in Europa, die Russland generell neutral oder positiv gegenüber stehen, wurde auf relativ wenige mediale Bezugsquellen eingehegt. Legal, illegal, brutal... es spielt keine Rolle. Wirklich vernetzt sind nur Menschen mit wirklichem familiären Russland-Bezug durch Soziale Medien. Und dort regt sich großer Unmut. Vor allem in den Provinzen. Man kann es nicht wegleugnen: Unterbrechungsfreies Internet liegt auch dem Nutzer näher im Vorort von Samara oder noch mehr in der fernen Provinz, als die naturgemäß gefilterten Informationen von allen Seiten. Man hat gelernt, mit Maßnahmen hinsichtlich des UA-Drohnenterrors umzugehen. Doch auch die Russen sind "nur" Menschen und nicht völlig anspruchslos.

Den Rest für die Deutschsprachler und Europa hat trotz aller Sanktionen fast nur RT übernommen. Und dort steht über diese schmerzlichen Maßnahmen naturgemäß fast nichts.

Klar, man weiß, dass der europäische Medienmarkt dies sofort als Schwäche auslegen würde.

-

RT ist definitiv Propaganda. Wenngleich informativer und fairer aufbereitete Propaganda, als es die Mainstream-Propagandisten allesamt im Westen sind.

Doch wie Sie es richtig feststellen: Hier wurden Leute wie Pepe Escobar zu nah in die Machtstrukturen gelassen - wenngleich später (zu spät) entfernt. Auch einige mehr wären hier längst "fällig" gewesen. Falsche Prognosen, fragwürdige Expertisen mit schwer propagandistischen Zügen.

Dabei hat sich die Welt seit 2022 "chaotisiert" mit der Zerschlagung des Völkerrechts und vor allem der globalen Handelsregeln. Hier vermisst der Mensch mit Ahnung offen gesagt echte Benchmarks seitens Russland.

Und wenn Russland nicht bald korrigiert, wird es für den potenziellen Nachfolger Mischustin nicht mehr viel Wahl geben.

Bestätigte Fakten seit 2022:

- den Geist von Anchorage gab es nicht

- weil Handschläge mit dem Westen mangels Handschlagqualität nicht existieren

- Russland wurde eingekreist. Das ist bereits jetzt Tatsache. Stichworte: Armenien, Aserbaidschan, Finnland, viel Spaß noch im Osten mit TalibanSan.

- Man hat es seitens Russland in den BRICS - anders als wünschenswert - nicht mal geschafft, Indien so nahe an sich zu binden, dass Trump durch Gegensanktionen komplett ins Leere gelaufen wäre.

- Grönland

- der USEUA-Tankerterror

Ja. Diese Dinge sind geschehen. Doch die Antworten waren schon bei der zweiten Oreshnik relativ wirkungslos.

Ja. Putin ist der Mann, der Zentraleuropa seinen gewohnten Frieden anders als dargestellt auch in den schlechtesten Zeite aus tiefer eigener Überzeugung gewährt. Und darüber sollten alle froh sein.

Doch wo ist die Erkenntnis, dass man mit gewissen Elementen frei nach Helmut Schmidt nicht verhandeln sollte und kann?

Mit einem Chaos-Player wie Trump, der offen gesagt ein ausgesprochen SCHLECHTER DEALER ist, viel mehr ein Erpresser, kann es auch gar nicht sein, dass Entwicklungen von übergeordneter Bedeutung wie BRICS geplant laufen. Denn das genau ist vor dem Hintergrund des Deep State ja Trumps Mission:

Das von der Hafenleine losgerissene, größte selbst angetriebene Schiff der Welt, dessen Bau man durch blind räuberischen Imperialismus fahrlässig zugesehen hat, durch wildeste See in Probleme zu bringen.

-

Man wird den USA andere Antworten geben müssen.

Putin ist clever. Lawrow ist clever. Auch andere in Russland sind clever.

Sie können als Verantwortliche mit Ordnung von Chaos im eigenen Land gut umgehen.

-

Die Frage, die sich stellt ist: Können sie auch mit dem vom Westen wie immer meisterlich und endlos Geld angerührten Chaos ebenso umgehen?

-

Herrn Yury Podoljaka möchte ich nichts unterstellen, aber als Beispiel nennen:

Immer wieder mal hat er der offiziellen russischen Darstellung im Ukraine-Krieg widersprochen. Und nicht selten Recht behalten. Aktuell mit Kupjansk.

In letzter Zeit wurde seine Kritik wesentlich größer und zahlreicher.

Ja, es ist tiefer Winter. Doch plötzlich gab es 1 Monat keinen Bericht von ihm auf RT.

Das kann Zufall sein. Das kann besondere Gründe haben.

Doch Beobachter wissen inzwischen:

Der gesamte Informationsfluss des Kremls wird sich anpassen müssen, wenn man nicht nur die Wohlgesonnenen, sondern auch generell den Regierungspartnern auf der ganzen Welt nachhaltig überzeugen möchte.

Ich hoffe, dass Ihre Analyse daher auch ernstgenommen wird.

Denn: Jeder muss mal abtreten.

Was er hinterlässt, entscheidet sich jedoch vor dem Abtritt.

Es braucht mehr außenpolitischen Pragmatismus mit direkten Antworten bezüglich der roten Linien und (bei allem Respekt) weniger Dugin.

-

PS an alle Leser: Sorry für die Auto-KI von Substack, die Korrektur nicht lernt.

Regis Tremblay's avatar

Lavrov has no peers. He and Putin are the real leaders in the world. The USA under Trump is collapsing under its own evil doing. The Future, if we have one, will be shaped by BRICS. Screw the USA, Donald Trump, and their globalist masters. They are going down. Epstein ain't going away.

Pawel Podgorski's avatar

Andrew, nothing will change trump because he is babilonian talmusic chazars slave. Unfortunately, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a mossad assets. to him the live of 1.7million babilonian talmudic chazars is more important than the life of 155million of Russians. He will destroy Russian Federation and split in 5 entities. Lavrov and others can lament but Putin is crypto jew. Normally, proper LEADER will bomb all border crossing between ukrabanderaland and poland, as well as romania. He will take over Odessa, bomb all embassiess of iSSrahell, us, uk, finland, sweden, estonia, latvia, lithuania, germany and canada. He would send Navy to unblock CUBA and demand return President Maduro. I would even gave trump 1 week to back-off Iran and told iSSrahell to rebild GAZA. As you know natanyahuj-milejkowski murdered 450,000Palestinians including 200,000 children. natanyahuj-milejkowski is same caliber of bandit like Delivanger who destroyed Warsaw in August 1944 murdering 250,000Poles. our ukrabandera bandits working for Delivanger were his killers SS Galitzen. This is a truth and yours crypto jew will destroy whole Middle East. Please read Zbigniew Brzezinski book "The Grand Chessboard". Another book is by Michael Hudson "superimperialism" . Shalom or Hei Hitler, depends how you call them. The goal remains the same.

Feral Finster's avatar

"The Americans don't play fair!" So what? It works.

Darras's avatar

Till the day it works no more.

Regis Tremblay's avatar

People should pay attention to what Putin and Lavrov say instead of your MSM and your so-called experts and bloggers you devour every day. Stop listening to them!

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Lavrov and Zakharova ("LavZakh") have inadvertently created enormously high and therefore unrealistic expectations among "Non-Russian Pro-Russians" (NRPRs) with their rhetoric over the last four years that they're indeed responsible for the deep disappointment that many have experienced over this period, including the "defections" of some from the ranks of NRPRs to either "political agnostics" or worse.

The rhetoric was (and still is a large degree) over the top, emotional, and conceited (i.e. innuendo about the inevitable fulfillment of all maximalist objectives from the onset of the conflict), standing distinctly apart from many of their fellow non-Western peers. I honestly rarely take a lot of what they say seriously nowadays and only follow it as a curiosity. Their rhetoric is appealing, to be sure, but rarely does it amount to anything in reality.

They nowadays just mostly declare vapid slogans for artificially boosting morale among the ranks of NRPRs, but not even among the majority I'd say, just the most "zealous" among them who take every single word as gospel and very aggressively push back against those who rely facts to show that reality is a lot more complicated than they make it seem and the challenges that Russia faces are also much more serious too.

I genuinely believe that whoever inevitably replaces "LavZakh" could learn a lot from their Chinese and Indian counterparts. Sergey Ryabkov is a pretty serious guy who rarely resorts to their level of rhetoric as far as I'm aware and I've followed him for over a decade, although not all that closely prior to the SMO. Still, he's a great example of the gravitas, seriousness, and political sobriety that I believe should be associated with the MFA.

I respect "LavZakh" for all they've accomplished, not least for how long they've held their physically, emotionally, and psychologically exhausting positions (few could travel that frequently and meet regularly with such a wide range of people), but it's my view that stylistic and ideational changes would most effectively advance Russia's foreign policy interests in the post-SMO world once it arrives than keeping everything the same.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

Also, just to be clear, my views are entirely my own and very proudly so; I consume a wide range of media from MSM to Alt-Media (the latter of various partisanship and national schools), but everything that I've ever published has always been my own views.

Quite frankly, I think that "Kremlin-adjacent" top NRPR influencers who simply parrot and oftentimes exaggerate "LavZakh's" talking points are some of the most misleading and unreliable people to follow anywhere on the internet. They've been wrong so many times yet only rarely ever account for that.

They condescendingly behave as if their audiences have the memories of goldfish and are as easily guided every which way as trained dogs, which is intellectually insulting but par for the course in this line of work, regrettably. If they were more realistic, serious, and less "activist" in their approach, everything would improve.

No such changes are expected, however, unless they receive signals (at the very least) from the top since most of what they've done so far is just parroting and exaggerating "LavZakh", not engaging in any independent and critical thoughts. Fish rot from the head down, as they say, and so too does soft power in some countries.

At this point, with foreign policy setbacks piling up in Syria, Iran, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and possibly soon even Belarus, God forbid, not to mention India likely reducing its hitherto large-scale Russian oil imports under US pressure, sticking to the same "5D chess master plan" script is self-discrediting and insulting.

Objective reality should always be calmly and soberly reflected, which is possible to do in a Russian-friendly way as I've done in the 12 years that I've been working in this sphere, it shouldn't be denied (sometimes aggressively!) and replaced with "wishful thinking" fantasies of the sort that Putin himself cautioned against indulging in:

https://voiceofeast.net/2022/07/03/president-putin-cautioned-russian-strategic-forecasters-against-indulging-in-wishful-thinking/

If Russia is to retain its soft power standing abroad among the majority of its "moderate" supporters, who aren't "zealots" like the vocal minority and top NRPR influencers are, then it must urgently change its stylistic and ideational approach, which requires clear signals from the MFA that the old way is no longer acceptable.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

I'd also like to add that a large part of why top NRPR influencers don't accurately reflect Russian policy and associated interests on their own prerogative, regardless of the signals being sent by the MFA's "Potemkinists", is due to many of them not actually being as "pro-Russian" as they present themselves.

Most of them are actually Leftists, Islamists, and/or "Third Worldists", which I don't negatively judge them for being since I respectively appreciate some (old-school) Leftist critiques, proudly pioneered the Pakistani dimension of Russia's "Ummah Pivot" (which I also contributed to in general), and many of my real-life and online friends are from "Third World" countries and my work about this part of the world always seeks to help these countries' overall development so that they can play the roles that they deserve in the emerging multipolar world order:

https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-interests-in-syria-go-far/comment/208694808

(^^^ this links to more details about my role in Russian-Pakistani relations and Russia's "Ummah Pivot")

Circling back to the point of this post, these top (putative) NRPR influencers falsely conflate their Leftist, Islamist, and/or "Third World" interests with Russian foreign policy and/or national interests and consequently mislead their audience about them. This is tolerated, even encouraged, however, by "Potemkinists" here.

Nevertheless, it's a crucial part of the problem which I sincerely believe has now become a soft power crisis for Russia since there've been so many objective setbacks over the past year, almost zero acknowledgement of them by these top (putative) NRPRs (the popular explanation for Venezuela is that Russia let it happen to trap the US in its own Vietnam or whatever lol lmao even!!!), and an equal almost total absence of constructive critiques of Russian foreign policy (i.e. what could have realistically been done better).

If you step away from the echo chambers and groupthink within which the community at large is captured, created as they've been by the interplay between the MFA's "Potemkinists" and top (putative) NRPR influencers' complementary creation of even more extreme alt-realities, it's quite obvious.

Most "moderate" NRPRs -- as in those who are not more Leftist, Islamist, and/or "Third Worldist" than they are bonafide pro-Russian (which doesn't mean blindly endorsing every policy, just genuinely loving Russia for what it is, warts and all, and appreciating its people, culture, language, literature, etc.) -- are appalled by this, consider it a cult, and don't feel comfortable closely associating with it. Many have corresponded with me about this since the SMO began, from average folks to experts, journalists, analysts, etc.

Another point is that most top (putatively) NRPR influencers have no stakes in Russia's success: they neither live here, are married to a Russian citizen or have kids with Russian citizenship, own property here, or have their life savings in rubles. They can therefore mislead policymakers at no cost to themselves.

And that's part of what's happening nowadays too since some of these figures with absolutely zero stakes in Russia's success circle around policymakers and experts spewing their "Potemkinist" fantasies and thus lending them false credence under the equally false guise of many of them being "independent experts". This is allowed by some shadowy forces that can only be speculated upon for whatever their reasons may be. These same forces could instantly put a stop to it but choose not to, again, for whatever their reasons may be.

It's also extremely concerning when some of these people to whom red carpets are rolled out and all political doors opened happen to be "former" foreign intel operatives or analysts or are to this day openly in contact with foreign intelligence agencies, including from officially designated unfriendly countries.

I say this as someone who truly loves Russia, has indisputably proven it throughout my 12 years of work (and especially during the SMO when I published original Russian-friendly analyses for 1,278 consecutive days till 24 August 2025 when I fell ill from over-exhaustion), and has professional credentials from the MFA itself (MA in IR and PhD in Poli-Sci from the MFA-run MGIMO but always working in a private capacity), I'm very worried about Russia's post-SMO future if far-reaching reforms don't follow its end.

Love never fails's avatar

Es stimmt. Sie waren immer da. Auch im August. Jeden Tag haben Sie geliefert. Und dennoch konnte man bei aller bemühten Objektivität in ihren Analysen immer ihre Liebe zur russischen Kultur zwischen den Zeilen mitlesen.

Будьте здоровы!

Sanjay Mehta's avatar

I can see you are politely leaving out names of the "Kremlin adjacent" bloggers. There's one gentleman who shares his name with a drug cartel leader who is, quite frankly, tiresome; he is exhausting to hear and watch.

He also is almost always wrong about India, and therefore his comments on China et al also are suspect in my view.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

They're self-evident to anyone who even casually follows the NRPR segment of the Alt-Media Community.

Pawel Podgorski's avatar

trump is moron with IQ59. bush had IQ59, only obama had IQ80. Such morons are needed in the usa, because they do the bidding of babilonian talmudic chazars. Russia has only one alternative (1 or 2):

1) be destroyed by babilonian talmudic chazars, or

2) eliminate those babilonian talmudic chazars.

Shalom or hei Hitler

Pawel Podgorski's avatar

There is no challenge to resolve conflict with ukrabandera. ukrabandera represents nazi-bandits plus talmudic babilonian chazars. Insted lamenting like Lavrov is doing, Putin shall do the same things like combating syphilis and aids. Eliminate all those bandits, take Odessa, blow-up RIVNE NPP, blowup all bridges on Dniestr, Dniepr and Bug Rivers, blow-up embassies of iSSrahell, us, uk, finland, sweden, estonia, latvia, lithuania, germany france and canada in kijev. Unfortunately, Putin is crypto jew so he will do nothing, and because of this, Russia will be destroyed.

Brian James's avatar

Oct 13, 2025 Trump, world leaders sign Gaza ceasefire deal at Egypt peace summit

A momentous breakthrough. That's how US President Donald Trump is describing a declaration made with world leaders, aimed at cementing a ceasefire in Gaza. It was signed at a summit in Egypt, hours after a long-awaited exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners.

https://youtu.be/Y-kcxcn111A

S Blackford's avatar

Perhaps the goal isnt "winning". But something more akin to techno- feudalism. Aka, talmudic supremacy.