Russia might be forced to choose between its two partners if their tensions spiral out of control.
The Malian Foreign Minister recently withdrew his country’s recognition of the “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic” and declared that it now supports Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan. According to Reuters, “Morocco’s proposal would establish a local legislative, executive and judicial authority for Western Sahara elected by its residents, while Rabat would retain jurisdiction over defence, foreign affairs and religious matters.” This will further worsen already serious Malian-Algerian tensions.
Reuters reminded readers about how Algeria downed a Malian drone last spring, which was analyzed here in an article that also enumerated three background briefings that readers can review here, here, and here. To oversimplify, Algeria at minimum provides logistical support for Mali’s terrorist-designated Tuareg rebels that are backed by the US, France, and Ukraine since it opposes the authorities’ withdrawal from a peace deal on the basis of Tuareg violations, which also complicates ties with Russia.
Russia is allied with Mali, which is the leading member of the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation, and also hinted at tacit support for Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan right before its Foreign Minister’s visit to Moscow last fall. Lavrov’s remarks at the time were interpreted as such by some media just like his harsh response to an Algerian journalist’s provocative question about alleged war crimes by Russia’s Africa Corps in Mali was interpreted by Moroccan media as “humiliat[ing] Algerian state media”.
At the same time, military-technical ties between them remain strong owing to Algeria’s dependence on Soviet/Russian equipment and Russia appreciating Algeria’s refusal to comply with Western sanctions, but Algeria’s attempted détente with the West could gradually reduce them if this effort succeeds. Moreover, the worsening of Malian-Algerian tensions could also force Russia to back Bamako against Algiers, which could then potentially result in abrupt delays on fulfilling military contacts with Algeria.
Circling back to the Western Sahara issue, it’s generally viewed by the Alt-Media Community as roughly analogous to Palestine and Kashmir in the sense of being seen as an illegitimate occupation, yet many members of this same community also support the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation. This therefore places them in a narrative dilemma after Mali’s support for Morocco’s autonomy plan since many might feel uncomfortable criticizing, let alone condemning, Mali amidst its ongoing tensions with the West.
The crux of this dilemma is that their community rarely tolerates balanced takes, instead preferring as a matter of dogma for members to either fully support or fully condemn whatever it may be, thus explaining the lack of constructive critiques about Russia, China, and Iran, et al. The same applies to the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation and Mali. For that reason, top influencers aren’t expected to opine on its new policy towards Western Sahara, nor are any articles or podcasts about this expected either.
Nevertheless, worsening Malian-Algerian tensions over this issue might eventually force their hand if there’s another border incident or worse, in which case it’ll be interesting to observe how they react. Anyhow, what’s most important for folks to remember is that Morocco’s Western Saharan autonomy plan continues gaining support, including in Africa itself. This in turn raises Morocco’s prestige, weakens Algeria’s position given that it’s the rebel Polisario Front’s patron, and changes regional geopolitics.
A long time ago, the Romans invited rival Germanic tribes to settle inside the limes to farm the land and help with defense. They counted on tribal rivalries to manage the situation. Within a few decades, demography took over. Eventually, the rival barbarians came to an agreement and destroyed the Western Empire.
Starting around 1965, France invited African tribes—from Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Niger—to come and settle, to run the factories and have children to ensure defense. France counted on discord and rivalries to manage them.
It has been going on and intensifying for 60 years. This population—first-generation migrants and their descendants—now makes up nearly a third of the country. Eventually, the tribes will come to an agreement. You know the rest.
What's the current Algeria-Russia relationship? In Soviet times, I kind of remember they were close. Did that change?