Moscow’s Response To Ecuador Sending Russian Arms To Ukraine Diversifies Trade With India
Had it not been for India defying the West’s sanctions pressure, then Russia would have been hard-pressed to punish Ecuador since suspending banana imports without a replacement would have led to them disappearing from domestic shelves.
“Ecuador Suddenly Decided To Transfer Old Russian & Ukrainian Arms To The US” for indirect shipment to Kiev last month in exchange for new American equipment out of desperation for military aid. This came amidst its nationwide anti-terrorist operation against those drug gangs that earlier tried to seize power. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reacted to this move by reminding Ecuadorean President Noboa that such transfers of his country’s arms without Moscow’s permission are a violation of their contract.
That didn’t deter the South American leader, however, who is desperate for whatever support he can receive for bringing a swift end to the current conflict. Realizing that their top diplomat’s warning wasn’t going to be heeded, Russia decided to asymmetrically respond. Its agricultural watchdog claimed in the beginning of February that it suddenly discovered a bunch of pests in its Ecuadorean banana imports, thus prompting a suspension of them and their replacement with Indian ones instead.
Most observers believe that this was just a pretext for hitting that country where it hurts, however, since Russia is Ecuador’s largest banana importer and is therefore responsible for around $700 million worth of purchases each year according to the Associated Press. That’s not a major economic blow since Ecuador’s total exports in 2022 were around $32 billion, but it’s nevertheless a targeted one against a national industry that’s the largest such one in the world.
Ecuador will certainly recover from this, but the point is that Russia was able to quickly respond to its unfriendly move in an asymmetrical way, and it relied on India to do so. Those two are strategic partners whose leaders are committed to comprehensively expanding bilateral trade, to which end Russia’s import of Indian bananas and other fruits will help diversify from their arms and energy dependence. This development also strengthens mutual trust and shows that Russia can rely on India in a pinch.
Had it not been for India defying the West’s sanctions pressure, then Russia would have been hard-pressed to punish Ecuador for sending its arms to Ukraine without permission since suspending banana imports without a replacement would have led to them disappearing from domestic shelves. It might very well have still done so, but then the Western media would have spun everything to claim that this was to the detriment of its people’s healthy diets and whatnot to smear the Kremlin and stir trouble.
Instead, there’ll now be a smooth transition between Ecuadorean and Indian banana imports with only minimal price differences at most, and all because Prime Minister Modi didn’t let himself be bullied. Looking forward, Indian bananas will likely replace Ecuadorean ones on the market from here on out, just like the other agricultural goods that it’s importing could replace those from any tropical countries that might follow in that South American one’s footsteps by sending their Russian arms to Ukraine too.
In other words, while it would be unfortunate if others do so as well, Russia could quickly respond in a similar fashion via a related pretext to replace their fruits with Indian ones. This provides the Kremlin with strategic flexibility and enables it to ensure that those who do what Ecuador did will also pay a hefty price, which preserves the state’s integrity by showing that it isn’t toothless nor a paper tiger. None of this would be possible without India, which has proven itself to be Russia’s most reliable partner.