China wants to retain access to Kachin State’s rare earths, the US wants to poach them, and their escalating competition over this part of Myanmar could make it the next New Cold War flashpoint.
If the US thinks managing the Vietnam War was easy, they should try the Myanmar. People interested in the military side can look at WW2 (Merrill's Marauders, and Wingate's Chindit). The more modern experiences of Thailand and Myanmar's anti-communist actions also helps. In Myanmar, anti-communist pacification is frequently just a cover for suppressing the minorities, at least during the Cold War period. The complex ethnic relationship and attitudes toward foreigners are even more difficult than the jungles to deal with.
The US is better off spending the effort to develop domestic rare earth resources.
Biden started that process of developing homegrown supply chains for rare earths…but it actually makes sense to slow-walk that process because once rare earths are on American soil we can recycle them in perpetuity. So let’s get China to poison their citizens extracting rare earths and we will wait until the mining technology has improved.
Yes. As long as the US radar, magnets, and special alloys don't use rare earth. By the way, Russia is the predominant supplier of Titanium. As long as the US doesn't use titanium in airplanes and satellites, the US can sanction Russia even more.
Yes. The US needs to finish the job on this one. Japan started to invest research money for rare earth substitution. The US national labs should do that as well.
Yookraine will retake Mooooscow next week and make it the capital of global homo. All rare earth minerals will belong to Yookraine and the Supreme overlord his majesty the honorable Zylenskyyyyyyyy.
Myanmar (that includes its various factions, KIA etc;) should learn from the outcomes of the Viet Nam War. When the going gets tough the Americans leave and the mess so created is left to those inhabiting those damaged lands. China is the near neighbour and has the most to gain, particularly with potential access to the Indian Ocean coast. Myanmar could prosper from Chinas' needs - USA just wants the rare earths and will leave Myanmar impoverished.
Wrong. The NVA and Vietcong were so devastated that they were incapable of winning on the battlefield. The US left because of the changing political attitudes towards the war.
Right now there is effectively no "Myanmar." There is a military junta that speaks primarily for the Burmese tribe and controls the Tatmadaw (the national army.)
Then there are the dozens of other tribal factions made up of Kachin, Chin, Shan, Mon, Karen, Rakhine, Naga, et cetera. Some of these groups are ~very~ loosely aligned against the junta, but for the most part they are all fighting for their own independence. And even within these tribal groups there are factions and sub-factions - sometimes fighting amongst themselves, sometimes fighting against other tribal militias, and sometimes fighting against the Tatmadaw.
There is, right now, no "one voice" that speaks for the whole country. "Myanmar" is just a word on the map.
Back in the 60's it was common to encounter the argument that Vietnam was strategically important to the US because of its natural resources. Was it tungsten, bauxite, or something else? I don't remember and it doesn't really matter, because the argument was intended to distract attention from the real issue, which was fear that post-colonial sovereignty in Vietnam might become contagious and spread to its neighbors and elsewhere in the world.
I think the Reuters article lies in the same vein of propaganda.
We invaded Iraq for their oil…but the biggest Bush success was Qatar in which the monarchy pledged allegiance to America in return for hundreds of billions of dollars in investment into their LNG export infrastructure. So a big reason Putin invaded Ukraine is because Qatar has been such a big success and Qatar and America and Australia are becoming the OPEC of LNG and Russia is being left in the dust.
Yes it was. Bush/Cheney/Tillerson had a two pronged plan to solve the 2001-2008 energy crisis—remove Saddam and stabilize Iraq and invest in Qatar. Qatar is very successful while Iraq not so much. But what throws you off is fracking ended up being developed because the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices…and so we never need to import LNG from Qatar and the global economy never needed Iraqi oil at 10 mbd.
They invaded because Saddam didn't wasn't to sell oil for US dollars. Instead he wanted to sell for gold. On top of that he was a threat to Israel and was detested by the Gulf monarchies. And he was a complete failure when he invaded Iran.
Oil is a global market…all that matters for a country like Iraq from our perspective is that production is maxed out and they get hooked on the revenue to fund a welfare state and then they will export irrespective of price. Saddam being in power made maxing out production impossible because we sanctioned him. A Joint Chiefs of Staff accidentally admitted we invaded Iraq because of oil—he said we didn’t invade because of oil and literally two questions later said we would invade Iran if they disrupted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So if just the flow of oil is important enough to invade Iran then adding 5% more production to the global market by toppling Saddam is just as important.
I don’t think the US would push hard here. It should use its money looking around its own land for the minerals. Miyanmar is a tough place to be dragging rare earths out of. China can use Belt and Road monies to shut out the US easily. This is a net loss here.
Most of the Kachin people I know and have talked with are not on friendly terms with China, and are much more pro-American. That said, money talks. If the Chinese could work out a deal for Kachin independence, thus potentially ending the decades old war between the Tatmadaw and the KIA, I think many of them would go for it in a heartbeat.
The chances of that happening, of course, are very slim. The Tatmadaw wants to get their hands on the vast natural resources in Kachin State as much as everyone else involved, and I doubt they will sign on to any agreement that cuts them out of the money loop.
The USA is on slippery territory if they think China will let them work out deals with the KIA right on their own back porch. Just like Russia won't allow NATO/USA to permanently embed themselves right across their own border, I think China would impose their own version of a Monroe Doctrine.
The American government would do well to look for "rare earths" in some other part of the earth where peace isn't such a rare commodity.
If the US thinks managing the Vietnam War was easy, they should try the Myanmar. People interested in the military side can look at WW2 (Merrill's Marauders, and Wingate's Chindit). The more modern experiences of Thailand and Myanmar's anti-communist actions also helps. In Myanmar, anti-communist pacification is frequently just a cover for suppressing the minorities, at least during the Cold War period. The complex ethnic relationship and attitudes toward foreigners are even more difficult than the jungles to deal with.
The US is better off spending the effort to develop domestic rare earth resources.
Biden started that process of developing homegrown supply chains for rare earths…but it actually makes sense to slow-walk that process because once rare earths are on American soil we can recycle them in perpetuity. So let’s get China to poison their citizens extracting rare earths and we will wait until the mining technology has improved.
Yes. As long as the US radar, magnets, and special alloys don't use rare earth. By the way, Russia is the predominant supplier of Titanium. As long as the US doesn't use titanium in airplanes and satellites, the US can sanction Russia even more.
Biden started developing the rare earth supply chains.
Yes. The US needs to finish the job on this one. Japan started to invest research money for rare earth substitution. The US national labs should do that as well.
Yookraine will retake Mooooscow next week and make it the capital of global homo. All rare earth minerals will belong to Yookraine and the Supreme overlord his majesty the honorable Zylenskyyyyyyyy.
Myanmar (that includes its various factions, KIA etc;) should learn from the outcomes of the Viet Nam War. When the going gets tough the Americans leave and the mess so created is left to those inhabiting those damaged lands. China is the near neighbour and has the most to gain, particularly with potential access to the Indian Ocean coast. Myanmar could prosper from Chinas' needs - USA just wants the rare earths and will leave Myanmar impoverished.
Wrong. The NVA and Vietcong were so devastated that they were incapable of winning on the battlefield. The US left because of the changing political attitudes towards the war.
Right now there is effectively no "Myanmar." There is a military junta that speaks primarily for the Burmese tribe and controls the Tatmadaw (the national army.)
Then there are the dozens of other tribal factions made up of Kachin, Chin, Shan, Mon, Karen, Rakhine, Naga, et cetera. Some of these groups are ~very~ loosely aligned against the junta, but for the most part they are all fighting for their own independence. And even within these tribal groups there are factions and sub-factions - sometimes fighting amongst themselves, sometimes fighting against other tribal militias, and sometimes fighting against the Tatmadaw.
There is, right now, no "one voice" that speaks for the whole country. "Myanmar" is just a word on the map.
But remember kids: dIvErSiTy iS a sTrEnGtH!!!!
Not to say that the rare earth resources are unimportant, but I think access for China to the Bay of Bengal is more important in the geopolitical picture, as noted also by the CMEC article cited (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-20/Myanmar-s-CMEC-closely-resembles-Pakistan-s-CPEC-NoV3bFGxm8/index.html).
Back in the 60's it was common to encounter the argument that Vietnam was strategically important to the US because of its natural resources. Was it tungsten, bauxite, or something else? I don't remember and it doesn't really matter, because the argument was intended to distract attention from the real issue, which was fear that post-colonial sovereignty in Vietnam might become contagious and spread to its neighbors and elsewhere in the world.
I think the Reuters article lies in the same vein of propaganda.
We invaded Iraq for their oil…but the biggest Bush success was Qatar in which the monarchy pledged allegiance to America in return for hundreds of billions of dollars in investment into their LNG export infrastructure. So a big reason Putin invaded Ukraine is because Qatar has been such a big success and Qatar and America and Australia are becoming the OPEC of LNG and Russia is being left in the dust.
Iraq wasn't invaded for oil ffs. Get off facebook boomer.
Yes it was. Bush/Cheney/Tillerson had a two pronged plan to solve the 2001-2008 energy crisis—remove Saddam and stabilize Iraq and invest in Qatar. Qatar is very successful while Iraq not so much. But what throws you off is fracking ended up being developed because the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices…and so we never need to import LNG from Qatar and the global economy never needed Iraqi oil at 10 mbd.
They invaded because Saddam didn't wasn't to sell oil for US dollars. Instead he wanted to sell for gold. On top of that he was a threat to Israel and was detested by the Gulf monarchies. And he was a complete failure when he invaded Iran.
Oil is a global market…all that matters for a country like Iraq from our perspective is that production is maxed out and they get hooked on the revenue to fund a welfare state and then they will export irrespective of price. Saddam being in power made maxing out production impossible because we sanctioned him. A Joint Chiefs of Staff accidentally admitted we invaded Iraq because of oil—he said we didn’t invade because of oil and literally two questions later said we would invade Iran if they disrupted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. So if just the flow of oil is important enough to invade Iran then adding 5% more production to the global market by toppling Saddam is just as important.
I don’t think the US would push hard here. It should use its money looking around its own land for the minerals. Miyanmar is a tough place to be dragging rare earths out of. China can use Belt and Road monies to shut out the US easily. This is a net loss here.
The U.S. has its own rare earth deposits. It just has to change its regulations in order to mine them. Canada also has lots of rare earth.
There's no need for the U.S. to kill anybody.
It's not a question of need though. As always its a question of greed when it comes to the U.S. America looks for trouble.
also about destabilising a region near china, as the author noted
Concur
Communism was so successful in Burma/Myanmar that it led to generations of a corrupt, military dictatorship ruling over the people.
Hohooo. Andrew don't publish in thee days....
Very worrying.
He is busy boffing Russian dudes at the sauna.
Most of the Kachin people I know and have talked with are not on friendly terms with China, and are much more pro-American. That said, money talks. If the Chinese could work out a deal for Kachin independence, thus potentially ending the decades old war between the Tatmadaw and the KIA, I think many of them would go for it in a heartbeat.
The chances of that happening, of course, are very slim. The Tatmadaw wants to get their hands on the vast natural resources in Kachin State as much as everyone else involved, and I doubt they will sign on to any agreement that cuts them out of the money loop.
The USA is on slippery territory if they think China will let them work out deals with the KIA right on their own back porch. Just like Russia won't allow NATO/USA to permanently embed themselves right across their own border, I think China would impose their own version of a Monroe Doctrine.
The American government would do well to look for "rare earths" in some other part of the earth where peace isn't such a rare commodity.