I suspect that US interest in rare earth elements (REE) in Kachin Province is more about capturing a geopolitical advantage over China than mining. Extracted ore needs to be processed and it is unlikely that US mining interests would ship the raw material to USA for value adding. Kachin Province is already divided politically so engaging with USA will only add to the conflict once opportunistic American mining corporations arrive on the scene. That's when B-52s come in to "protect American interests". Meanwhile the REE scene in Australia is awakening in case USA didn't know (see link). We already have B-52s over-flying our sovereign territory for reasons unknown to the Australian population so US investment in our REE shouldn't bring extra "interest" - or will it?
"it is unlikely that US mining interests would ship the raw material to USA for value adding"
No, they wouldn't. One look at the gray skies at China regions where the ore is processed answers the question of why. BTW, USA has plenty of suitable ore, but the environmentalists want it to stay where it is, underground. Also, most of the ore mined in the only operational domestic rare earth mine, Mountain Pass in California, is shipped to China for processing.
All great points Paul. Mining and processing REE’s is expensive in terms of capital outlay, labour costs and environmental concerns. It’s much easier to outsource all of that to a “third world” country, except when you’ve made an enemy of the country which has a monopoly on processing… The days of gunboat diplomacy are over. The opium war has reversed course and become a fentanyl war…
Second thoughts: Myanmar has a chequered history of political instability and variable international loyalties however Trump is considering removing sanctions in order to parley with the military junta over access to Myanmars' REE. Meanwhile Australia is a (slavish) co-operative ally committed to the US MIC , yet Trump has applied sanctions (tariffs) on Australian exports to USA so maybe we don't want to co-operate on any "deal" that involves US access to our REE. So the link above is for interest not action!
A lot of Aussie mining guys have been wondering where Iluka's Eneabba project will get feedstock from (aside from their stockpiled mineral sands). If they can wangle some ores out of Myanmar, I could see that being a logical destination...
Bhamo is an old battleground during WW2. Chinese Expedition Force and the Allied troops spilled a lot of blood to wrestle the area from the Japanese. The jungles around that area are as bad as those in Vietnam, if not worse. Americans surely would like to control this area, but the Kachin people had been fighting for independence since before WW2. I think they understand what they want. The main traffic routes in this area either goes into China (redeveloped after China's economic reforms) or south into the central plain of Yangon. Or, through the obsolete (lack of maintenance after WW2) Ledo Road into Assam. Even if the Junta signed a deal with the US, it will be difficult for the US to extend actual control into this area. And American hands extended into this area will provoke China for sure.
I suspect that US interest in rare earth elements (REE) in Kachin Province is more about capturing a geopolitical advantage over China than mining. Extracted ore needs to be processed and it is unlikely that US mining interests would ship the raw material to USA for value adding. Kachin Province is already divided politically so engaging with USA will only add to the conflict once opportunistic American mining corporations arrive on the scene. That's when B-52s come in to "protect American interests". Meanwhile the REE scene in Australia is awakening in case USA didn't know (see link). We already have B-52s over-flying our sovereign territory for reasons unknown to the Australian population so US investment in our REE shouldn't bring extra "interest" - or will it?
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/All/Articles/2024/October/Rare-earths-explainer
"it is unlikely that US mining interests would ship the raw material to USA for value adding"
No, they wouldn't. One look at the gray skies at China regions where the ore is processed answers the question of why. BTW, USA has plenty of suitable ore, but the environmentalists want it to stay where it is, underground. Also, most of the ore mined in the only operational domestic rare earth mine, Mountain Pass in California, is shipped to China for processing.
All great points Paul. Mining and processing REE’s is expensive in terms of capital outlay, labour costs and environmental concerns. It’s much easier to outsource all of that to a “third world” country, except when you’ve made an enemy of the country which has a monopoly on processing… The days of gunboat diplomacy are over. The opium war has reversed course and become a fentanyl war…
Second thoughts: Myanmar has a chequered history of political instability and variable international loyalties however Trump is considering removing sanctions in order to parley with the military junta over access to Myanmars' REE. Meanwhile Australia is a (slavish) co-operative ally committed to the US MIC , yet Trump has applied sanctions (tariffs) on Australian exports to USA so maybe we don't want to co-operate on any "deal" that involves US access to our REE. So the link above is for interest not action!
A lot of Aussie mining guys have been wondering where Iluka's Eneabba project will get feedstock from (aside from their stockpiled mineral sands). If they can wangle some ores out of Myanmar, I could see that being a logical destination...
Bhamo is an old battleground during WW2. Chinese Expedition Force and the Allied troops spilled a lot of blood to wrestle the area from the Japanese. The jungles around that area are as bad as those in Vietnam, if not worse. Americans surely would like to control this area, but the Kachin people had been fighting for independence since before WW2. I think they understand what they want. The main traffic routes in this area either goes into China (redeveloped after China's economic reforms) or south into the central plain of Yangon. Or, through the obsolete (lack of maintenance after WW2) Ledo Road into Assam. Even if the Junta signed a deal with the US, it will be difficult for the US to extend actual control into this area. And American hands extended into this area will provoke China for sure.
Great that people like you connect the dots and explain how countries plan for the future. Very insightful.... Keep up the work!