Nigeria Intimated That It’s Preparing To Intervene In Mali

Its Defense Minister is preconditioning the public ahead of what might be an inevitable regional war.

Bloomberg reported that the Nigerian Defense Minister suggested in a recent interview that “The international community, through the United Nations, ‘must come together to fight this devil’”, adding that “If they allow them to get any foothold in Mali, completely, they are not stopping there.” The “devil” that he was referring to is “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM), the radical Islamists allied with “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) Tuareg separatists, who’ve collectively taken over Northeastern Mali.

His assessment aligns with the earlier warning that “The Latest Malian Crisis Risks Spiraling Into A Regional War”. That analysis specified that “Nigeria fears Niger’s takeover or at least destabilization by terrorists, which could empower its own such terrorists in the north, thus threatening the Christian-majority south even more than it already is and/or de facto partitioning the country.” Bloomberg echoed this concern in their article. Left unmentioned is that Nigeria might coordinate its mission with the US.

This prediction builds upon the conclusion here that the US’ anti-ISIS strikes in Nigeria on Christmas Day signified the beginning of more joint anti-terrorist operations in the region. As was written, “the US envisages ‘Leading from Behind’ as Nigeria reasserts Western influence over the Sahel on its behalf, but likely after some time and not right away.” These strikes’ proximity to the Nigerien border showed that “they could expand across it for softening Niger up ahead of a US-backed Nigerian invasion one day.”

Nigeria ultimately decided not to invade Niger during summer 2024’s crisis that followed the latter’s patriotic military coup in large part due to the calculation that its northern Hausa minority would rebel in response to attacks against their co-ethnics across the border. They’re also both Muslim, while the Nigerian Armed Forces include Christians whose participation in such an operation could lend credence to “clash of civilization” narratives, which would risk intensifying religiously driven conflicts in Nigeria.

With these concerns in mind, Nigeria would likely seek Niger’s approval for transiting through the country en route to Mali and/or Burkina Faso, the second of which is already almost half-conquered by JNIM. Niger itself is struggling against ISIS’ local franchise, which is active in the relatively narrow space between the capital of Niamey and the country’s two western neighbors, so Nigeria might have to fight through them on the way to the other two members of the Sahelian Alliance (AES).

It’s therefore possible that Nigeria receives transit rights from Niger for facilitating its fight against JNIM in Mali and/or Burkina Faso, but conditional on it wiping out ISIS on the way, with this approval likely only being granted under huge Western pressure if it ever comes to pass. After all, the AES is opposed to foreign interventions of the sort that the West wants Nigeria to lead on their behalf (and likely under the aegis of ECOWAS to bolster its legitimacy), so Niger would first have to facto defect from the bloc.

West Africa’s coastal countries, which are all close to the West with the exception of Guinea and increasingly Togo, fear the consequences of JNIM conquering the AES. They’re thus expected to contribute to any Western-backed and Nigerian-led ECOWAS intervention there. It’s therefore possible that Nigeria launches its campaign from their territory instead of its own if Niger refuses to grant it transit rights. The earlier warning about a regional war might then become prophetic.