Russia’s interests in investing the diplomatic resources that mediation would require are to raise its global prestige, reinforce its excellent ties with all six stakeholders while strengthening ties with the US, and securing investment opportunities and likely also a naval base in a revived South Yemen.
Thinking of reviving the old PDRY under a different name, are you? I remember when Soviet Naval Aviation had a base there. Migs from Aden flew over my squadron in the Arabian Sea a couple of times.
Yemen's been divided before so I can see it being divided again. I don't see the Houthis going away anytime soon. The Saudis and Emiratis couldn't get rid of them, and the US Empire's warships are vulnerable to their missiles if they get too close.
And we have all those messes just across the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa going on, with the Chinese in Djibouti. As an American, all I can say is I wish we'd get out of there and leave those people to find their own ways. If I were Russian, I would be very, very careful about getting entangled in that part of the world.
I think Russia is not ready to tackle this Yemen problem as yet. In comparison, Ukraine is much more important and the business there is FAR from finished. Syria is involved in Russian marine traffic out of the Black Sea. I would say even the Arctic shipping route, the early warning radar line, and the infrastructure to support both plus all Siberian towns close to the Arctic Sea are more important. If Americans want to waste resources bombing the poorest nation in the Middle East, let them. If Russians really want to help promote peace around Yemen, then working behind the curtain with Iran, KSA, Qatar, and other GCC countries would be better than standing at the center.
I can possibly see a Russian intrusion of the Lavrov team from a diplomatic angle but no naval base until the situation is clarified in Ukraine and even in Syria. Overextension of military resources in a time of war is a dangerous game. Until the Bosporus and Gibraltar are closed for the Russian Navy the value of any bases in Syria and Yemen will be limited.
I've written about that before and assume that my audience has enough basic background knowledge that I don't have to repeat myself in every article about this or whatever else it may be (ex: Ukraine).
The cause (aka morals, ethics, principles, values) doesn't really matter in Great Power geopolitics, which is all about interests, power, and the like. In any case, the Houthis have indeed disrupted shipping regardless of the cause, and that's the pretext for Trump to strike.
The Houthis are also about much more than just Hamas, they're a leading actor in the Yemeni civil-international war that's gone on for over a decade already. My analysis is about that conflict, not Gaza.
I get that you want people to remind others about your favorite talking points, that's normal for most members of the Alt-Media Community, but I don't do that. My work focuses on analysis, not rhetoric. You'll be very disappointed if you're expecting anything different from my articles.
Honestly, ask yourself: what difference would it make in terms of my analysis about the conflict's dynamics and potential endgame if I would have included one sentence about Gaza?
It would have just made you and whoever else happy, but that's it, it has no relevance to the ground dynamics, the diplomatic dynamics, nor the possible endgame in Yemen other than serving as a pretext for Trump's strikes.
Do you know. That’s why you’re one of the best people on here. You put on your big boy trousers and tell the salient, objective truth no matter where that truth falls. I always learn something from your articles. Always.
Thinking of reviving the old PDRY under a different name, are you? I remember when Soviet Naval Aviation had a base there. Migs from Aden flew over my squadron in the Arabian Sea a couple of times.
Yemen's been divided before so I can see it being divided again. I don't see the Houthis going away anytime soon. The Saudis and Emiratis couldn't get rid of them, and the US Empire's warships are vulnerable to their missiles if they get too close.
And we have all those messes just across the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa going on, with the Chinese in Djibouti. As an American, all I can say is I wish we'd get out of there and leave those people to find their own ways. If I were Russian, I would be very, very careful about getting entangled in that part of the world.
I think Russia is not ready to tackle this Yemen problem as yet. In comparison, Ukraine is much more important and the business there is FAR from finished. Syria is involved in Russian marine traffic out of the Black Sea. I would say even the Arctic shipping route, the early warning radar line, and the infrastructure to support both plus all Siberian towns close to the Arctic Sea are more important. If Americans want to waste resources bombing the poorest nation in the Middle East, let them. If Russians really want to help promote peace around Yemen, then working behind the curtain with Iran, KSA, Qatar, and other GCC countries would be better than standing at the center.
I can possibly see a Russian intrusion of the Lavrov team from a diplomatic angle but no naval base until the situation is clarified in Ukraine and even in Syria. Overextension of military resources in a time of war is a dangerous game. Until the Bosporus and Gibraltar are closed for the Russian Navy the value of any bases in Syria and Yemen will be limited.
I've written about that before and assume that my audience has enough basic background knowledge that I don't have to repeat myself in every article about this or whatever else it may be (ex: Ukraine).
The cause (aka morals, ethics, principles, values) doesn't really matter in Great Power geopolitics, which is all about interests, power, and the like. In any case, the Houthis have indeed disrupted shipping regardless of the cause, and that's the pretext for Trump to strike.
The Houthis are also about much more than just Hamas, they're a leading actor in the Yemeni civil-international war that's gone on for over a decade already. My analysis is about that conflict, not Gaza.
I get that you want people to remind others about your favorite talking points, that's normal for most members of the Alt-Media Community, but I don't do that. My work focuses on analysis, not rhetoric. You'll be very disappointed if you're expecting anything different from my articles.
Honestly, ask yourself: what difference would it make in terms of my analysis about the conflict's dynamics and potential endgame if I would have included one sentence about Gaza?
It would have just made you and whoever else happy, but that's it, it has no relevance to the ground dynamics, the diplomatic dynamics, nor the possible endgame in Yemen other than serving as a pretext for Trump's strikes.
Do you know. That’s why you’re one of the best people on here. You put on your big boy trousers and tell the salient, objective truth no matter where that truth falls. I always learn something from your articles. Always.
Thank you, I sincerely appreciate that!