Pakistan Can Tip The Balance Of Power In Central Asia
Colluding with the US on destabilizing Afghanistan and returning Western military infrastructure to the region would turbocharge the emerging Turkic Bloc’s rise at the expense of Russia’s influence in Central Asia while reconsidering these plans that Shoigu alluded to would help stabilize the region.
Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu published an article about Afghanistan late last month at the publicly financed Rossiyskaya Gazeta. The purpose was to contextualize why Russia became the first country over the summer to formally recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate rulers. He briefly mentioned how this will lead to closer cooperation against drugs and terrorism while also warning about the continued threats of foreign terrorists and a return of Western military infrastructure to the region.
As regards the first of these threats, he said that “The situation is aggravated by the recorded facts of the transfer of militants from other regions of the world to Afghanistan. There is reason to believe that behind these actions are the special services of a number of Western countries, which continue to hatch plans to destabilize the region, to create chronic centers of instability near Russia, China and Iran by means of extremist groups hostile to the Taliban.”
Here's what he said with respect to the second: “It is also clear that the Western powers, having lost their positions in the Afghan direction, are hatching plans to return NATO military infrastructure facilities to the region. Despite declarative statements about their lack of intention to recognize the Taliban's power, London, Berlin and Washington are demonstrating their determination to get closer to the Afghan leadership. It is no coincidence that their emissaries have recently been frequenting Kabul.”
He conspicuously didn’t describe how these foreign terrorists are entering Afghanistan with the support of Western spies, nor did he talk about how Western military infrastructure could return to the region. A quick glance at the map reveals that the easiest route for both is through Pakistan, which is nowadays run by a pro-US de facto military regime that nonetheless still enjoys cordial ties with Russia. Pakistan also has a history of supporting extremist groups and functioning as the US’ top regional ally.
In fact, the US has openly favored Pakistan over India in recent months, thus suggesting that there’s more to their rapid rapprochement under Trump than meets the eye. Another relevant point is that Pakistan is also allied with Turkiye and Azerbaijan, which aspire to create a Turkic Bloc in Central Asia that’ll be turbocharged by the new TRIPP Corridor facilitating their and NATO’s military logistics to this region. US-orchestrated and Pakistani-enabled instability in Afghanistan can hasten these plans.
The Armenian precedent of manipulating allies’ perceptions of Russia’s reliability could then be replicated in Central Asia for having them ultimately replace the CSTO with a combination of NATO and the Turkish-led “Organization of Turkic States” (OTS). Tajikistan isn’t Turkic so it might gravitate towards NATO instead of the OTS if it thinks that Russia isn’t ensuring its security or is too chummy with the unfriendly Taliban while neutral Turkmenistan would be expected to cultivate closer ties with both.
This scenario could be catalyzed by US-Pak collusion, but Russia’s reaction has been to not overreact in the hopes that it, China, and Iran can persuade Pakistan to reconsider in pursuit of the greater multipolar good. Whether this is wishful thinking or masterful diplomacy remains to be seen, but the fact is that foreign terrorists and Western military infrastructure can most easily enter Afghanistan and the region via Pakistan, thus imbuing Islamabad with outsized influence over the balance of power in Central Asia.
Pakistan hopping is the way it makes money.
40-50 years of British and US influence after its formation in 1947 gained through blocking of soviet efforts.
Also after collapse of soviet union With US invasion of Afghanistan and its occupation. The funding from US slowly reduced.
Pakistan looked toward China. With China funneling money in Pakistan into many efforts including ports and CPEC. And now China reducing its money inflow because of unreliability.
Pakistan again looking towards US for money. And will ensure US led effort in the region.
TRIPP agenda of US is nothing but a pipe dream. Baku is very heavily depending on Yerevan here, and that gives Yerevan a clear-cut leverage during any future conflict between the south caucus nations. And moreover for Iran this is like a golden opportunity because they will make sure to make this “Zangezour corridor” as the graveyard of Americans in the region. Overall, a lot depends on how the guarantees from the US take shape during and after the current Trump administration. If Washington’s transactional approach shifts under the next presidency and Russia is able to refocus on the South Caucasus, a new geopolitical gambit awaits. Also, there's a new power axis has emerged in the South Caucasus through the strengthening Turkey-Azerbaijan partnership, ushering in dynamics that which does not align entirely with either the US or the Iran-Russia camp. These complications pose tremendous obstacles for Trump’s new TRIPP stratagem. One, if exploited well enough by Moscow could make this entire house of cards fall without even firing a single bullet.
Now coming next to Pakistan being the state which can tip the balance of power in Central Asia, then I think you are very far from being entirely correct in this scenario. From what I can tell, Pakistan is right now in a very difficult jam with acting as a loyal dog for both Washington and Beijing. Even in this SCO summit, Xi was very angry with Munir and reportedly told him to not bite the hand which feeds you. Now, this is just a diplomatic jam, but there's another catch here. Pakistan biggest vulnerability is Pakistan itself. They think that they are planning something that is about to go very strategically, but eventually their plans result in only tactical successes, albeit avoiding the bigger complete picture. Pakistan as usual will play US for a fool like it had before too. It will never destabilize Taliban because that goes against the interest of its master China and perhaps Pakistan too. Pakistan will only pretend to help American efforts in Central Asia and eventually when it will reap its investments from US interest in the region, it will (like it had done in the past) betray the US for China. Without China, their military wouldn't be able to survive, and its trade would choke off just like that in a matter of few weeks. Now, speaking militarily, Pakistan is already facing a severe cost on its northern border and several of its SSG commandos have perished under the attacks from TTP rebels in two separate areas of South Waziristan. Previously, too many of its elite commandos belonging to the frontier corp have been killed in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Northern Pakistan. And as far as the things are going, I don't think that these attacks will stop in the near future. Neither the Pakistani Armed forces would be able to fully eliminate the TTP rebels in the region since they have grown stronger both military and financially after each counter militancy act by the Pakistani army. Hence, it will be folly to think that Pakistan would be able to destabilize Afghanistan as it did in the late 80s under the instruction of Pakistan. Pakistan habit of double-dealing and debt to China would be its Achilles heels eventually. Pakistan today is much in a weaker state than it was in the early and late 80s and 90s too. Dwindling down economy, unstable political environment, geopolitical struggles with both India and Afghanistan as well as getting salami sliced between the two major powers. This would consequently run chaotically over all the geopolitical desires of the US led NATO group in Central Asia. And also by over playing its Armenia hand in South Caucus region as well too.