Colluding with the US on destabilizing Afghanistan and returning Western military infrastructure to the region would turbocharge the emerging Turkic Bloc’s rise at the expense of Russia’s influence in Central Asia while reconsidering these plans that Shoigu alluded to would help stabilize the region.
40-50 years of British and US influence after its formation in 1947 gained through blocking of soviet efforts.
Also after collapse of soviet union With US invasion of Afghanistan and its occupation. The funding from US slowly reduced.
Pakistan looked toward China. With China funneling money in Pakistan into many efforts including ports and CPEC. And now China reducing its money inflow because of unreliability.
Pakistan again looking towards US for money. And will ensure US led effort in the region.
TRIPP agenda of US is nothing but a pipe dream. Baku is very heavily depending on Yerevan here, and that gives Yerevan a clear-cut leverage during any future conflict between the south caucus nations. And moreover for Iran this is like a golden opportunity because they will make sure to make this “Zangezour corridor” as the graveyard of Americans in the region. Overall, a lot depends on how the guarantees from the US take shape during and after the current Trump administration. If Washington’s transactional approach shifts under the next presidency and Russia is able to refocus on the South Caucasus, a new geopolitical gambit awaits. Also, there's a new power axis has emerged in the South Caucasus through the strengthening Turkey-Azerbaijan partnership, ushering in dynamics that which does not align entirely with either the US or the Iran-Russia camp. These complications pose tremendous obstacles for Trump’s new TRIPP stratagem. One, if exploited well enough by Moscow could make this entire house of cards fall without even firing a single bullet.
Now coming next to Pakistan being the state which can tip the balance of power in Central Asia, then I think you are very far from being entirely correct in this scenario. From what I can tell, Pakistan is right now in a very difficult jam with acting as a loyal dog for both Washington and Beijing. Even in this SCO summit, Xi was very angry with Munir and reportedly told him to not bite the hand which feeds you. Now, this is just a diplomatic jam, but there's another catch here. Pakistan biggest vulnerability is Pakistan itself. They think that they are planning something that is about to go very strategically, but eventually their plans result in only tactical successes, albeit avoiding the bigger complete picture. Pakistan as usual will play US for a fool like it had before too. It will never destabilize Taliban because that goes against the interest of its master China and perhaps Pakistan too. Pakistan will only pretend to help American efforts in Central Asia and eventually when it will reap its investments from US interest in the region, it will (like it had done in the past) betray the US for China. Without China, their military wouldn't be able to survive, and its trade would choke off just like that in a matter of few weeks. Now, speaking militarily, Pakistan is already facing a severe cost on its northern border and several of its SSG commandos have perished under the attacks from TTP rebels in two separate areas of South Waziristan. Previously, too many of its elite commandos belonging to the frontier corp have been killed in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Northern Pakistan. And as far as the things are going, I don't think that these attacks will stop in the near future. Neither the Pakistani Armed forces would be able to fully eliminate the TTP rebels in the region since they have grown stronger both military and financially after each counter militancy act by the Pakistani army. Hence, it will be folly to think that Pakistan would be able to destabilize Afghanistan as it did in the late 80s under the instruction of Pakistan. Pakistan habit of double-dealing and debt to China would be its Achilles heels eventually. Pakistan today is much in a weaker state than it was in the early and late 80s and 90s too. Dwindling down economy, unstable political environment, geopolitical struggles with both India and Afghanistan as well as getting salami sliced between the two major powers. This would consequently run chaotically over all the geopolitical desires of the US led NATO group in Central Asia. And also by over playing its Armenia hand in South Caucus region as well too.
QUESTION: (1) If Armenia is already a conquered nation, can it still hold any leverage over Azerbaijan? Or do you think the Westerners' control over Armenia is brittle, and the political orientation of Armenia can change by an election?
(2) IMHO, I think Pakistan's geography cannot sustain its current population, let alone improving the life of the ordinary people. Therefore, whoever holds power in Pakistan will justify any means to get money. Yet the money probably goes only to the military and the overseas bank account. Between Pakistan military (especially army) and ISI (the intelligence) which do you think plays the role of loyal dog more? Can I claim the two are different but cooperating factions? Traditionally, army is the bastion of nationalism in most developing countries, and quite often the better educated ones besides a very short academic bench.
If Iran , with Pezeskian gang finally goes west, so the western musulman axis will be complete and a serious pain in ass for Russia first, China second, Europe third and ...USA in a fourth time.
From Somalia to Kazakhstan, Morocco to Pakistan, a Muslim world to serve USA. Transfert of douzains thousands of terrorists to Xinxiang and Muslim russian regions, thousands of km of dangerous and free frontiers. Millions of migrants to Europe with terrorists infiltrated .A nightmare.
Thankyou Andrew for your erudite essay that clarifies points of interest never discussed in Anglo-American media. I find it hard to believe that any nations of the Turkic Bloc would entertain any co-operative arrangements with USA, UK or NATO emissaries considering the appalling disregard for humanity that these militaristic hegemons have displayed towards citizens of this region over centuries past. US foreign policy is determined each day at the behest of Zionists in US, UK and Israel. Given the duplicitous attempted engagements with Iran, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and particularly Palestine who would trust US "peace seeking" missions that always end up with blood and destruction? The Arab League must realise that their best future lies in their independent control of energy supplies that only involve hard bargained mercantile relationships rather than militarised alliances. Being an ally of Zionist USA can be worse than being a declared enemy.
Zionist are To in Kremlin that is fact end Russia is under control of them more then 100 yers . Same schizophrenic 👹 ethnic group control western world end Arab world, Saudi kings are zionist there are not Arabic. Bolsjewiek are Zion in east end free Masson Zion are in the west . London city is central power end Vatican is spiritual end al religious centre in the world is controlled by them sinds 1800 bc Issac Esau Jacob deception , Edam founded / Amalek born Levant 1700’S . Al religion to they en neoliberal ideology ende fake democratie is founded by them !!!!
" Persuasion" won't work. Events in Nepal have shown that Pakistan is the supreme US ally to wreck both South Asia and Central Asia. Posting Sergio Gor as US Ambassador to India and envoy to Central Asia is only going to accelerate that. Time that Russia and India join efforts to counter Pak.
Why is that scumbag Shoigu not rotting in jail for his at least 110 billion dollar pillage of the MoD budget during his tenure and is instead writing articles in the gazette?
The West has suffered moral collapse. Its leaders are the most dangerous and ignorant on the planet. They have zero regard for human life and suffering and prefer chaos over any lose of control they may feel they enjoy over others.
In the U.S., the tyranny it has imposed on others, it is proceeding to impose on itself.
Which raises the question of a de facto, if not formal division of labour between Russia and China as to responsibility for patrolling and/or policing Central Asia to counterweigh American/NATO growing influence in that region.
Given that Russia is already fighting on two fronts - in Ukraine and, effectively, the Arctic - I suspect this has long been discussed in Moscow and Beijing, with the latter assuming these roles. Especially since (a) the future of the BRI is at stake and (b) China has significant economic clout in Central Asia, to say nothing of its now obvious military might.
Yes, the Americans' plans and dreams in this region are more likely to fail than to succeed in the long run. But in the short term, Americans can still cause enough havoc to people in this area. Even if the US long-term strategic orientation shifts toward the Americas, it is hard to imagine the US would withdraw from this area voluntarily.
Pakistan hopping is the way it makes money.
40-50 years of British and US influence after its formation in 1947 gained through blocking of soviet efforts.
Also after collapse of soviet union With US invasion of Afghanistan and its occupation. The funding from US slowly reduced.
Pakistan looked toward China. With China funneling money in Pakistan into many efforts including ports and CPEC. And now China reducing its money inflow because of unreliability.
Pakistan again looking towards US for money. And will ensure US led effort in the region.
TRIPP agenda of US is nothing but a pipe dream. Baku is very heavily depending on Yerevan here, and that gives Yerevan a clear-cut leverage during any future conflict between the south caucus nations. And moreover for Iran this is like a golden opportunity because they will make sure to make this “Zangezour corridor” as the graveyard of Americans in the region. Overall, a lot depends on how the guarantees from the US take shape during and after the current Trump administration. If Washington’s transactional approach shifts under the next presidency and Russia is able to refocus on the South Caucasus, a new geopolitical gambit awaits. Also, there's a new power axis has emerged in the South Caucasus through the strengthening Turkey-Azerbaijan partnership, ushering in dynamics that which does not align entirely with either the US or the Iran-Russia camp. These complications pose tremendous obstacles for Trump’s new TRIPP stratagem. One, if exploited well enough by Moscow could make this entire house of cards fall without even firing a single bullet.
Now coming next to Pakistan being the state which can tip the balance of power in Central Asia, then I think you are very far from being entirely correct in this scenario. From what I can tell, Pakistan is right now in a very difficult jam with acting as a loyal dog for both Washington and Beijing. Even in this SCO summit, Xi was very angry with Munir and reportedly told him to not bite the hand which feeds you. Now, this is just a diplomatic jam, but there's another catch here. Pakistan biggest vulnerability is Pakistan itself. They think that they are planning something that is about to go very strategically, but eventually their plans result in only tactical successes, albeit avoiding the bigger complete picture. Pakistan as usual will play US for a fool like it had before too. It will never destabilize Taliban because that goes against the interest of its master China and perhaps Pakistan too. Pakistan will only pretend to help American efforts in Central Asia and eventually when it will reap its investments from US interest in the region, it will (like it had done in the past) betray the US for China. Without China, their military wouldn't be able to survive, and its trade would choke off just like that in a matter of few weeks. Now, speaking militarily, Pakistan is already facing a severe cost on its northern border and several of its SSG commandos have perished under the attacks from TTP rebels in two separate areas of South Waziristan. Previously, too many of its elite commandos belonging to the frontier corp have been killed in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of Northern Pakistan. And as far as the things are going, I don't think that these attacks will stop in the near future. Neither the Pakistani Armed forces would be able to fully eliminate the TTP rebels in the region since they have grown stronger both military and financially after each counter militancy act by the Pakistani army. Hence, it will be folly to think that Pakistan would be able to destabilize Afghanistan as it did in the late 80s under the instruction of Pakistan. Pakistan habit of double-dealing and debt to China would be its Achilles heels eventually. Pakistan today is much in a weaker state than it was in the early and late 80s and 90s too. Dwindling down economy, unstable political environment, geopolitical struggles with both India and Afghanistan as well as getting salami sliced between the two major powers. This would consequently run chaotically over all the geopolitical desires of the US led NATO group in Central Asia. And also by over playing its Armenia hand in South Caucus region as well too.
QUESTION: (1) If Armenia is already a conquered nation, can it still hold any leverage over Azerbaijan? Or do you think the Westerners' control over Armenia is brittle, and the political orientation of Armenia can change by an election?
(2) IMHO, I think Pakistan's geography cannot sustain its current population, let alone improving the life of the ordinary people. Therefore, whoever holds power in Pakistan will justify any means to get money. Yet the money probably goes only to the military and the overseas bank account. Between Pakistan military (especially army) and ISI (the intelligence) which do you think plays the role of loyal dog more? Can I claim the two are different but cooperating factions? Traditionally, army is the bastion of nationalism in most developing countries, and quite often the better educated ones besides a very short academic bench.
The key is Iran.
If Iran , with Pezeskian gang finally goes west, so the western musulman axis will be complete and a serious pain in ass for Russia first, China second, Europe third and ...USA in a fourth time.
From Somalia to Kazakhstan, Morocco to Pakistan, a Muslim world to serve USA. Transfert of douzains thousands of terrorists to Xinxiang and Muslim russian regions, thousands of km of dangerous and free frontiers. Millions of migrants to Europe with terrorists infiltrated .A nightmare.
Thankyou Andrew for your erudite essay that clarifies points of interest never discussed in Anglo-American media. I find it hard to believe that any nations of the Turkic Bloc would entertain any co-operative arrangements with USA, UK or NATO emissaries considering the appalling disregard for humanity that these militaristic hegemons have displayed towards citizens of this region over centuries past. US foreign policy is determined each day at the behest of Zionists in US, UK and Israel. Given the duplicitous attempted engagements with Iran, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and particularly Palestine who would trust US "peace seeking" missions that always end up with blood and destruction? The Arab League must realise that their best future lies in their independent control of energy supplies that only involve hard bargained mercantile relationships rather than militarised alliances. Being an ally of Zionist USA can be worse than being a declared enemy.
Zionist are To in Kremlin that is fact end Russia is under control of them more then 100 yers . Same schizophrenic 👹 ethnic group control western world end Arab world, Saudi kings are zionist there are not Arabic. Bolsjewiek are Zion in east end free Masson Zion are in the west . London city is central power end Vatican is spiritual end al religious centre in the world is controlled by them sinds 1800 bc Issac Esau Jacob deception , Edam founded / Amalek born Levant 1700’S . Al religion to they en neoliberal ideology ende fake democratie is founded by them !!!!
" Persuasion" won't work. Events in Nepal have shown that Pakistan is the supreme US ally to wreck both South Asia and Central Asia. Posting Sergio Gor as US Ambassador to India and envoy to Central Asia is only going to accelerate that. Time that Russia and India join efforts to counter Pak.
Why is that scumbag Shoigu not rotting in jail for his at least 110 billion dollar pillage of the MoD budget during his tenure and is instead writing articles in the gazette?
The West has suffered moral collapse. Its leaders are the most dangerous and ignorant on the planet. They have zero regard for human life and suffering and prefer chaos over any lose of control they may feel they enjoy over others.
In the U.S., the tyranny it has imposed on others, it is proceeding to impose on itself.
Which raises the question of a de facto, if not formal division of labour between Russia and China as to responsibility for patrolling and/or policing Central Asia to counterweigh American/NATO growing influence in that region.
Given that Russia is already fighting on two fronts - in Ukraine and, effectively, the Arctic - I suspect this has long been discussed in Moscow and Beijing, with the latter assuming these roles. Especially since (a) the future of the BRI is at stake and (b) China has significant economic clout in Central Asia, to say nothing of its now obvious military might.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've shared the link on our daily report.
A Skeptic War Reports
https://askeptic.substack.com/
Yes, the Americans' plans and dreams in this region are more likely to fail than to succeed in the long run. But in the short term, Americans can still cause enough havoc to people in this area. Even if the US long-term strategic orientation shifts toward the Americas, it is hard to imagine the US would withdraw from this area voluntarily.
Andrew, you say that Russia and Pakistan have cordial relations.
For reminds, in beginning june 1941, USSR and Germany too.
And middle East countries ....cordial mean nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Andrew, listen to the audio of your essay: it’s so fast as to be almost incomprehensible. Tell Substack