The helping hand that Pakistan is lending to Turkiye in Libya, which follows that which it recently lent in Somalia and half a decade earlier in Azerbaijan, could lead to them working together in Kazakhstan next as that country risks a crisis with Russia over its production of NATO-standard shells.
Insightful article. One item I think gets overlooked is Turkey's political economy: they import Chinese (& European) components, cheap Russian energy and re-export goods (mainly to Europe) but overall they have a current account deficit that is balanced with dark money (ratlines of drugs for guns to/from MidEast and Afghanistan, drug and people snuggling to Europe). Their industry is in the "valley of death" stage, where most middle income counties get stuck: low/mid value added, unable to compete on quality with advanced producers but with the two added complexities if not being part of a large trade block and not able to meet economies if scale of China and India. Add to the the demographic tidal wave of young people entering the job market, followed by a subsequent baby-bust (except for the Kurds, another worry) which puts them at risk of growing old before they grow rich. Their imperative is to secure (1) neo-Ottoman control over energy resources in East med and MidEast, and (2) captive markets for commoditized products (as in Libya) to grow their industry, which is being kept price competitive through inflation and lira depreciation. They're in a race against time, trying to make themselves useful to the West so that they don't up like Iraq or Syria themselves (which I think is the more likely outcome).
As to turkey expanding into central Asia can easily be countered by sturring up the Kurda whose numbers uin turkey and bordering states is the Same as Turkey.Kurds speak a different language
want to be independent of Turkey. Thrkry forget the Ottoman empirs, it no longer exists.
coming from a country which can easily beat turkey in direct confrontation, their attitude seems a bit like, and i say it with all due respect, that of france - a great country with horse glasses on their face, made to believe it's a minor player which needs to "work" for their recognition, intimidated and made to panic even when it does well to keep her conditioned and "punished" with tiny insignificant consequences she shouldn't care about when it doesn't execute. pakistan, like france, are great only for existing, so diminishing themselves will hurt them before anyone else - imagine you do with a huge hauling truck the maneuvers intended for a middle class car - big mistake. and while they do this, the real opportunities are pouring among their fingers, and the effort and time necessary to come back become bigger and more difficult. they aren't evil or hostile, they are both misguided and dearly needed somewhere else than in this ridiculous posture. i don't want to upset anyone, so i will erase this comment if i receive hostile reactions (only on internet, not on my water or electricity). when fully explained, all these things will make sense.
May I ask if you think that Türkiye’s present foreign policy is largely Erdogan’s personal agenda, or whether it’s a considered long-term national policy with wide support within the military and state bureaucracies, and therefore likely to survive his departure from the scene.
It appears to me that Türkiye has enough problems at home to deal with and that a successor to Erdogan might be inclined to prioritise those instead of devoting the country’s limited resources to this Ottoman 2.0 grandiosity.
I don't think it's Erdogan's agenda, it's probably more central and ingrained in its foundations since the end of World War I.
They're not after Ottoman 2.0, Israel or the US would never allow it. But they let Turkey manipulate Eurasian with Ottoman 2.0 bullshit to bring these countries down to ruin.
"Kemalist" Turkey is the only border country in the Middle East with a military alliance with Israel. They pose a threat to Syria and Iraq in the long-standing border disputes. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was a secret Jewish infiltrator! This explains the alliance between the Atatürk-influenced military regime in Turkey and the fraudulent and criminal state of Israel! This also explains the "Kemalist" junta's resistance to the revival of Islam among the Muslim people in Turkey!
knowing the type of circles that would give the next president, i dare to say it's exactly this one that will start the turanist roller, even worse if at the cover of false, specific and undeserved credibility.
Insightful article. One item I think gets overlooked is Turkey's political economy: they import Chinese (& European) components, cheap Russian energy and re-export goods (mainly to Europe) but overall they have a current account deficit that is balanced with dark money (ratlines of drugs for guns to/from MidEast and Afghanistan, drug and people snuggling to Europe). Their industry is in the "valley of death" stage, where most middle income counties get stuck: low/mid value added, unable to compete on quality with advanced producers but with the two added complexities if not being part of a large trade block and not able to meet economies if scale of China and India. Add to the the demographic tidal wave of young people entering the job market, followed by a subsequent baby-bust (except for the Kurds, another worry) which puts them at risk of growing old before they grow rich. Their imperative is to secure (1) neo-Ottoman control over energy resources in East med and MidEast, and (2) captive markets for commoditized products (as in Libya) to grow their industry, which is being kept price competitive through inflation and lira depreciation. They're in a race against time, trying to make themselves useful to the West so that they don't up like Iraq or Syria themselves (which I think is the more likely outcome).
Turkey is like a big car with a 1.0 liter engine. It won't be able to drive all the way up the hill.
Do you perhaps have any knowledge of how it is that there has been peace with the Kurds from Turkey for the past year?
Probably Uncle Ben is involved, but if I know my people right, the war between the Kurds and the Turks will never have an end date.
As to turkey expanding into central Asia can easily be countered by sturring up the Kurda whose numbers uin turkey and bordering states is the Same as Turkey.Kurds speak a different language
want to be independent of Turkey. Thrkry forget the Ottoman empirs, it no longer exists.
coming from a country which can easily beat turkey in direct confrontation, their attitude seems a bit like, and i say it with all due respect, that of france - a great country with horse glasses on their face, made to believe it's a minor player which needs to "work" for their recognition, intimidated and made to panic even when it does well to keep her conditioned and "punished" with tiny insignificant consequences she shouldn't care about when it doesn't execute. pakistan, like france, are great only for existing, so diminishing themselves will hurt them before anyone else - imagine you do with a huge hauling truck the maneuvers intended for a middle class car - big mistake. and while they do this, the real opportunities are pouring among their fingers, and the effort and time necessary to come back become bigger and more difficult. they aren't evil or hostile, they are both misguided and dearly needed somewhere else than in this ridiculous posture. i don't want to upset anyone, so i will erase this comment if i receive hostile reactions (only on internet, not on my water or electricity). when fully explained, all these things will make sense.
Thank you for this insightful analysis.
May I ask if you think that Türkiye’s present foreign policy is largely Erdogan’s personal agenda, or whether it’s a considered long-term national policy with wide support within the military and state bureaucracies, and therefore likely to survive his departure from the scene.
It appears to me that Türkiye has enough problems at home to deal with and that a successor to Erdogan might be inclined to prioritise those instead of devoting the country’s limited resources to this Ottoman 2.0 grandiosity.
I don't think it's Erdogan's agenda, it's probably more central and ingrained in its foundations since the end of World War I.
They're not after Ottoman 2.0, Israel or the US would never allow it. But they let Turkey manipulate Eurasian with Ottoman 2.0 bullshit to bring these countries down to ruin.
"Kemalist" Turkey is the only border country in the Middle East with a military alliance with Israel. They pose a threat to Syria and Iraq in the long-standing border disputes. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk was a secret Jewish infiltrator! This explains the alliance between the Atatürk-influenced military regime in Turkey and the fraudulent and criminal state of Israel! This also explains the "Kemalist" junta's resistance to the revival of Islam among the Muslim people in Turkey!
knowing the type of circles that would give the next president, i dare to say it's exactly this one that will start the turanist roller, even worse if at the cover of false, specific and undeserved credibility.