Pakistan Might Assist With The US’ Blockade Of The Strait

It’s a “Major Non-NATO Ally” located in proximity to the mission area and thus capable of providing logistical support at a minimum with the expectation that its formidable armed forces and nuclear weapons would deter Iranian retaliation if their shared Chinese partner is unable to disabuse it.

Trump announced that the US will immediately begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz together with unnamed countries after the Islamabad talks ended without a peace deal due to Iran’s unwillingness to compromise on its nuclear program in his telling. It’s very possible that one of the unnamed countries that’ll assist in the US’ blockade of the strait is Pakistan. This is due to it being a “Major Non-NATO Ally” located in proximity to the mission area and thus capable of providing logistical support at a minimum.

Pakistan has formidable armed forces and nuclear weapons, so Iran might be deterred from striking it, unlike nearby Oman which it hit multiple times during the Third Gulf War despite the country earlier mediating talks with the US due to its infrastructure allegedly being used by the US during the conflict. There’s a lot of sympathy for Iran in Pakistani society, especially among its huge Shiite minority, but its de facto military leadership and their civilian puppets have behaved very obsequiously towards Trump.

It’s therefore unlikely that they’d deny any request from him to provide at least logistical support such as by allowing US ships to resupply from Pakistani ports. Such a request might have already been made and agreed to as suggested by Pakistan’s military positioning in recent days after it deployed fighter jets to Saudi Arabia as part of its mutual defense obligations. In light of the US’ blockade, Pakistan’s possible support role therein, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation, this might be for deterrence purposes.

Iran knows that Pakistan wouldn’t leave any strike unanswered after their tit-for-tat bombings in January 2024 that were carried out by each against the other on anti-terrorist grounds. This time, however, Pakistan might not prioritize escalation control due to the completely different regional military context. The potential bombing of its ports could worsen the country’s already serious economic crisis and thus represent a threat to its de facto military leadership that might prompt an outmatched response instead.

If the ceasefire doesn’t hold, then Iran might also resume its attacks against Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia might respond this time and request that Pakistan back it up in compliance with their alliance. If Trump carries through with his threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and oil infrastructure, then Iran will execute its own threat to destroy the Gulf’s, the sequence of which Saudi Arabia might have assessed as likely and thus preemptively requested the deployment of Pakistani fighter jets for deterrence purposes.

Of course, it’s also possible that Iran doesn’t interfere with the blockade so long as the US doesn’t resume hostilities since Iran could reroute real-sector trade with China via Central Asia, which Beijing might request so as to avoid the abovementioned sequence of losing access to all the region’s oil. If forced to choose, it would rather only lose Iran’s, yet it’s unclear what China could offer Iran to get its leadership and especially the IRGC’s to reconsider their religious embrace of martyrdom in that scenario.

China already reportedly pressed Iran to compromise with the US by agreeing to the ceasefire, and if that’s true, then China might be able to press Iran not to interfere with the blockade too so that Trump quickly transitions it to a partial one against only Iran and not the US’ own Gulf allies as well. In that case, Pakistan wouldn’t experience any Iranian retaliation for assisting with the US’ blockade, but it could still provoke huge protests that its de facto military leadership might have to resort to lethal force to quell.