Pakistan’s First-Ever Import Of Russian Oil Could Set The Basis For Strategic Energy Relations

This latest development might very well set the basis for strategic energy relations between Russia and Pakistan since it would be a waste to go this far after surmounting so many formidable obstacles just to abandon their plans over a speculative pricing dispute. America’s tacit approval of this relationship, which was given out of desperation to save the regime and even included letting Pakistan pay for Russian oil with yuan, hints that it wants these plans to succeed too.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif celebrated his country’s first-ever import of Russian crude oil over the weekend in a post on Twitter where he announced that a new era in bilateral ties had begun and also thanked everyone who helped make this latest milestone happen. That last part was hypocritical, however, since his government’s propagandists had previously run a disinformation campaign after April 2022’s post-modern coup claiming that Pakistan can’t refine Russian oil.

This false narrative was driven by the newly installed authorities’ desire to discredit former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s (IK) pragmatic outreaches that he made to Russia during his visit there two months prior in pursuit of discounted food and fuel deals. He subsequently claimed that his refusal to call off the trip under American pressure was one of the reasons why that country leveraged its agents of influence shortly thereafter to depose him as punishment for his disobedience.

Sharif’s government knew the entire time that this ousted leader’s oil discussions with Russia were realistic and aligned with Pakistan’s national interests, but they still maliciously lied that it was impossible to refine Russian oil in order to avoid extending credence to the claims about his removal. Despite flip-flopping on that stance as proven by the latest development, neither they nor their propagandists have apologized, nor will they likely ever in order to avoid drawing attention to their lies.

This context is crucial to remember since it proves that something indisputably changed behind the scenes to have IK’s replacements reverse their position on this highly sensitive issue, so much so that Sharif even shamelessly claimed that this first-ever import represents him “fulfilling another promise”. As was analyzed in May 2022, “The Economic Crisis Compelled Pakistan To Consider Importing Food & Fuel From Russia”, which America tacitly approved afterwards in order to avoid its proxy’s full-blown collapse.

Pakistan’s cascading crises since April 2022’s post-modern coup have risked the viability of the US’ geopolitical plans for that country, which is why it approved the import of Russian oil as a last-resort to stave off that scenario and only after waiting till the very last minute. It might still be too late for Pakistan to avert bankruptcy, but its people could still possibly have their most basic needs met if Islamabad’s plan to import over one-third of its crude oil supplies from Moscow comes to fruition.

It's premature to predict that this will happen, however, since the reputable Express Tribune’s report about the first-ever import of this resource from Russia cited inside sources who allegedly argued that it might not be as cost-effective for Pakistan as was initially thought. Nevertheless, the very fact this trial shipment successfully went through is still an impressive achievement considering the prior obstacles in its path posed by both Sharif’s government and their US patrons.

It’s also significant that this purchase was paid for using yuan, which represents yet concession by the US out of desperation to save its geopolitical project in Pakistan after that country began to teeter on the brink of collapse following the cascading crises catalyzed by April 2022’s post-modern coup. Furthermore, the regime and its propagandists’ narrative reversal regarding the possibility of Pakistan refining Russian oil is another achievement too since it’s not often that anyone flips-flops this blatantly.

These three factors suggest that this latest development might very well set the basis for strategic energy relations between Russia and Pakistan since it would be a waste to go this far after surmounting so many formidable obstacles just to abandon their plans over a speculative pricing dispute. America’s tacit approval of this relationship, which was given out of desperation as explained and even included letting Pakistan pay for Russian oil with yuan, hints that it wants these plans to succeed too.

After all, their failure could worsen its proxy’s economic plight to the point where its people commence a large-scale rebellion and thus endanger the viability of the US’ geopolitical plans there, which is why its policymakers already enacted these two previously unthinkable concessions. Had there been any realistic alternative to Russia satisfying over one-third of Pakistan’s crude oil needs, then the US would never have given the greenlight for its proxy to purchase fuel from its rival, let alone with yuan.

Of course, a lot can still happen to change the US’ calculations, so the scenario of Russia and Pakistan entering into strategic energy relations shouldn’t be taken for granted. Be that as it may, the odds are presently in the favor of that happening, hence the reason for cautious optimism about this. Looking forward, those two’s promising ties would be mutually beneficial in the sense of reliably ensuring easily convertible revenue for Russia while also meeting Pakistan’s most basic energy needs amidst its crises.