Poland Will Play A Central Role In Advancing The US’ National Security Strategy In Europe

The US-facilitated revival of Poland’s long-lost Great Power status via the “Three Seas Initiative” can advance some of the US’ top goals in the continent.

Trump 2.0’s new National Security Strategy (NSS) has made headlines in Europe due to its dismal assessment of the continent. The document drew attention to its “losing share of global GDP”, the de-sovereignization of its members by the EU, “suppression of political opposition”, the “loss of national identities and self-confidence”, “cratering birthrates”, and the problem of large-scale immigration. The last is significant since the NSS predicts that “the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”

In particular, “it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European.” The combined effect of all these trends, exacerbated as they’re expected to be by large-scale immigration, could render certain NATO allies unreliable. This is likely in reference to the countries of Western and Northern Europe since the NSS suggests “Building up the healthy nations of Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe” as a solution, omitting the other regions.

Accordingly, while the US seemingly believes that France, Germany, the UK, and some others are beyond saving, the rest of the continent isn’t, ergo the NSS’ focus on Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe. The first two and part of the third overlap with the Polish-led “Three Seas Initiative” (3SI), which Greece joined in 2023. The 3SI aims to comprehensively integrate this shared space. It’s in the US’ interests to support Poland’s vision for economic, political, and military-strategic reasons.

These are: Poland just becoming a $1 trillion economy whose rapid rise can accelerate the broader region’s; the 3SI serving as a platform for rallying its members behind Poland’s US-aligned vision of EU reform; and some 3SI infrastructure’s dual military-logistics function vis-à-vis Russia. Success will advance the NSS’ goals of: building up the broader region; “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations”; and helping Europe “take primary responsibility for its own defense”.

The US-facilitated revival of Poland’s long-lost Great Power status via the 3SI is therefore a core part of the NSS for Europe, but this can’t advance all of the enumerated policies. The one about “Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia” can only be accomplished through American leadership, which Trump and Putin are trying to negotiate. The outcome of their talks will likely “end the perception, and prevent the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.”

“Opening European markets to U.S. goods and services and ensuring fair treatment of U.S. workers and businesses” was already arguably accomplished through summer’s trade deal. As for “Encouraging Europe to take action to combat mercantilist overcapacity, technological theft, cyber espionage, and other hostile economic practices”, this will require it following the US’ lead in implementing tariffs on China and exposing its spies. The EU fears Chinese retaliation, however, so the US will have to coerce it.

“Stand[ing] up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history” can be done bilaterally but coordination with the 3SI could put more pressure upon the Western and Northern European countries that this policy alludes to. Through these means, with the Polish-led 3SI at the core of the US’ NSS for Europe, Trump 2.0 can “help Europe correct its current trajectory”, but as was assessed, some states might already be beyond saving.