The most that Poland might do is condition its continued financial and military support for Ukraine on Kiev safeguarding the rights of its Polish minority, but the ruling Ukrainophilic liberal coalition is unlikely to do this, so there’s little chance of this happening till after fall 2027’s next Sejm elections.
If there were 145k Poles in Ukraine in 2001 I doubt there are 25k today. The thrid world vs 2nd world gap has become 2nd world vs 1st world, and ther ea replenty more incentives too.
But the intriguing question is what is Poland preparing its army for.
More men than France, some 230k and growing.
They aren't going to invade Kalinigrad - they'd get nuked and all the men in the world wouldn't help. They aren't going to Ukraine to fight Russia - no one would support them, and they'd just get picked off with long distance missiles the day they declared war on Russia - Redzikowo would last minutes too.
So what project does make sense - in particular what project makes sense now in 2026.
Only taking control of Ukraine WITH Russia. Russia (and China) would love their assistance. Last thing Russia wants is to go chasing Azov beyond the Dnieper.
And if they are considering it even just as an idea, then someone (MI6, CIA, anyone) woud have leaded this to Ukraine explaining the current provocations and bad temper.
The idea that poland would want territory populated by millions of fractious and well-armed people who are not only by no stretch of the imagination polish, but who committed a genocide against poles well within living memory is absurd.
Poland is gearing up fight Russia, as Russia has demonstrated a total unwillingness to fight and poland smells blood.
I'd certainly hope it was absurd, but so is the idea that it needs 230k military expected to exceed 300k.
I get that Poland has had a dozen or more years of encouragement in its Russophobia and has anticipated strong support from more than just the Balts.
But that has pretty much disappeared now. Louder voiced do not mean UK or Germany or France are more strongly willing war with Russia. it just means they have realised that their Big Stick is actually very small, and soft speaking no longer works. (US and Poland have realised the same).
While the rest of E Europe - Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, have all pretty much accepted that it is time to be friendly with Russia again (and would demonstrate that in fair elections). I imagine Turkey too.
1. No for me it is just western PR confusing matters. As soon as anyone starts budgeting manpower and finance for a war the whole thing looks silly.
2. Oh I agree - but if the rulers haven't reached 3% and doubled manpower by 2025 they aren't trying seriously. Only Poland has done that. US is spending (wasting) the cash but manpower remains at all time lows.
I don't think Brussels can sustain 5% NATO payments for a dozen years...it will break the political consensus and perhaps already has as you've noticed there's growing re-discovery of common sense.
Nato was at 2.76% last year, of whch US was 3.22% which suggest to me Europe was 2.2%.
Outside Poland, the Balts and newly Scandanavia nobody seems to be approaching even 3% let alone match that in troops.
I think we are beyond that already. In the middle of an enormous pro-Kiev PR campaign to pretend they can still win, it is never wise to treat current statements as beinf real.
Things would make more sense if we knew what the major players aims were, as it, it's rather irrational looking.
Trumps insistence on 5% has always seemed to as partly payback for the Russia Witch Hut... I assume Brussels always hoped that RU-URK conflict would be a matter of Ukraine fighting, and the US paying.
Of course, it could be that the plan is to replace Ukraine with Poland if a new Biden type figure returns to give arms away again...
I always assumed Europe were bullied into war with Russia but it does seem now that there has been much more willingness to get involved than I had realised.
But a willingness to add small amounts to US funding and Ukrainian manpower. No one in Europe is going to war in their own name.
Zelensky's Nazi crowns and the oppression of the Polish minority leave Poland with two crucial choices, which are known to Europe and which is why it is now interested in talking to Putin. The first concerns the cessation of all Polish aid to Ukraine. The second is a partial invasion to protect the minority. A collapse of Ukraine would serve the second scenario. Guess what?
Polesd & Ukrainians have shown a dislike for each other for centuries, nothing new. Poles Catholic, Ukrainains Orthodox. Ukrinian speech almost identical to Russian. Ukrainian & Polish spech a lot more different. What has been continues, can not do any thing about it.
Question: is the polish libéral coalition in charge really ukrainophil? Or is it polonophobic?
I can assure you that the three last french president and their bunch of eunuchs and whores are really francophobic.
If there were 145k Poles in Ukraine in 2001 I doubt there are 25k today. The thrid world vs 2nd world gap has become 2nd world vs 1st world, and ther ea replenty more incentives too.
But the intriguing question is what is Poland preparing its army for.
More men than France, some 230k and growing.
They aren't going to invade Kalinigrad - they'd get nuked and all the men in the world wouldn't help. They aren't going to Ukraine to fight Russia - no one would support them, and they'd just get picked off with long distance missiles the day they declared war on Russia - Redzikowo would last minutes too.
So what project does make sense - in particular what project makes sense now in 2026.
Only taking control of Ukraine WITH Russia. Russia (and China) would love their assistance. Last thing Russia wants is to go chasing Azov beyond the Dnieper.
And if they are considering it even just as an idea, then someone (MI6, CIA, anyone) woud have leaded this to Ukraine explaining the current provocations and bad temper.
The idea that poland would want territory populated by millions of fractious and well-armed people who are not only by no stretch of the imagination polish, but who committed a genocide against poles well within living memory is absurd.
Poland is gearing up fight Russia, as Russia has demonstrated a total unwillingness to fight and poland smells blood.
Or not. It reminds me of Hot Tub Time Machine when the Ski Patrol says they will handle it “internally”!
I'd certainly hope it was absurd, but so is the idea that it needs 230k military expected to exceed 300k.
I get that Poland has had a dozen or more years of encouragement in its Russophobia and has anticipated strong support from more than just the Balts.
But that has pretty much disappeared now. Louder voiced do not mean UK or Germany or France are more strongly willing war with Russia. it just means they have realised that their Big Stick is actually very small, and soft speaking no longer works. (US and Poland have realised the same).
While the rest of E Europe - Slovakia, Czech, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, have all pretty much accepted that it is time to be friendly with Russia again (and would demonstrate that in fair elections). I imagine Turkey too.
1. Russian dithering, indecision and incompetence have convinced NATO that Russia can be finished off once and for all.
2. It doesn't matter what the people think or like or want. The rulers are the only ones who matter and they are all in.
1. No for me it is just western PR confusing matters. As soon as anyone starts budgeting manpower and finance for a war the whole thing looks silly.
2. Oh I agree - but if the rulers haven't reached 3% and doubled manpower by 2025 they aren't trying seriously. Only Poland has done that. US is spending (wasting) the cash but manpower remains at all time lows.
The wat had been going on for four years with no end insight and russia's position continuing to deteriorate. Stop kidding yourself.
Russia's position is not deteriorating.
Far from it -
We are seeing the last convulsions of a doomed Ukraine.
A Death Rattle dressed up as a victory parade.
The challenge remains - how Europe can accept defeat. And a solution has emerged - to time it alongside a US admission of defeat with Iran.
I don't think Brussels can sustain 5% NATO payments for a dozen years...it will break the political consensus and perhaps already has as you've noticed there's growing re-discovery of common sense.
The worst case I think is more short-medium term.
5%?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/584088/defense-expenditures-of-nato-countries/?srsltid=AfmBOoplVHcuRUBof1Ynk1eQ8YDOm-6fCEmdlcLAv1gWj_BIVyk1rekX
Nato was at 2.76% last year, of whch US was 3.22% which suggest to me Europe was 2.2%.
Outside Poland, the Balts and newly Scandanavia nobody seems to be approaching even 3% let alone match that in troops.
I think we are beyond that already. In the middle of an enormous pro-Kiev PR campaign to pretend they can still win, it is never wise to treat current statements as beinf real.
Things would make more sense if we knew what the major players aims were, as it, it's rather irrational looking.
Trumps insistence on 5% has always seemed to as partly payback for the Russia Witch Hut... I assume Brussels always hoped that RU-URK conflict would be a matter of Ukraine fighting, and the US paying.
Of course, it could be that the plan is to replace Ukraine with Poland if a new Biden type figure returns to give arms away again...
I always assumed Europe were bullied into war with Russia but it does seem now that there has been much more willingness to get involved than I had realised.
But a willingness to add small amounts to US funding and Ukrainian manpower. No one in Europe is going to war in their own name.
Zelensky's Nazi crowns and the oppression of the Polish minority leave Poland with two crucial choices, which are known to Europe and which is why it is now interested in talking to Putin. The first concerns the cessation of all Polish aid to Ukraine. The second is a partial invasion to protect the minority. A collapse of Ukraine would serve the second scenario. Guess what?
Freedom for ALL Polish People in Ukraine.
Polesd & Ukrainians have shown a dislike for each other for centuries, nothing new. Poles Catholic, Ukrainains Orthodox. Ukrinian speech almost identical to Russian. Ukrainian & Polish spech a lot more different. What has been continues, can not do any thing about it.