18 Comments
User's avatar
Paul Jurczak's avatar

"All three would help open up new markets for Polish exports to Turkiye, the Levant, and North Africa."

This is a propaganda needed to sell this political hot potato. Yes, some of these benefits may happen, but it will be eclipsed by Ukraine using this railroad to bury Poland under their agricultural and other products, not mentioning military applications of this infrastructure. This idea is being promoted by strongly pro Ukrainian current director of ARP (Industrial Development Agency) Bartłomiej Babuśka, who is also the honorary Consul of Ukraine in Tarnów and the director of Polish-Ukrainian Institute of Help and Development (Polsko-Ukraiński Instytut Pomocy i Rozwoju). Building infrastructure outside of Poland is not a mission this agency was created for. There is growing resistance to spending taxpayer money this way.

Nakayama's avatar

I think they do so to cover the large expenses needed to strengthen the military transportation infrastructure and miscellaneous defense works underground. Although the "military plan" part is obviously beyond their reach, the historical feud cannot be overlooked. Personally, I think it is better to have long and guarded walls between Russia/Belarus and the NATO front-lines at least for a decade or two. When the European people get their governments back, they will come to Russia to talk. Russia should consider building all new MIC projects east of the Urals.

Feral Finster's avatar

This assumes that europeans will get their governments back. As long as the rulers remain united, they have nothing to fear in that regard.

Nakayama's avatar

(1) I think the chance for European people to get their government back is slim, at best. (2) Given the current EU configuration, the grass-root revolt would have to be EU-wide, although a couple of countries will break first. (3) Overall, the revival chance for Europe is slim. Hence, my opinion that the wall had better be long and guarded.

Darras's avatar

Dont forget the external events:

War, civil war, economical collapse, financial collapse.

Imagine a greek scenario but this time at the size of France.

Do you think that euro can survive to that? That UE can survive to that? That western financial system can survive to that?

Imagine that the crazy Polish+Balts+Scandinavians push Russia to far in trying to lead NATO to block Baltic sea...

Do you think that NATO, and UE could survive to that?

Imagine just one spark in France which sparks riots in France by our 30% muslim population (40% in army).

Lot of things can happen. The apple is rotten, one just have to push a little.

Nakayama's avatar

Very true. But we have not got passed that "a little" as yet. As you said, the balance probably needs a little push from an external event. Say, a spike in oil price, or a shortage of nuclear fuel rods, etc. It seems the nightly low in Paris is now 50+ Fahrenheit. When the temperature drops another 10 in Fahrenheit, an energy crisis can be easily triggered.

Darras's avatar

It's our debt which is the most bothering. The debt and the hate growing between the different parts of our country. At least 3 parts.

Darras's avatar

Yes in two decades, french imams will go to Russia to talk bizness. 😂

Tony Ledsham's avatar

It’s curious to me, the level of dangerous rhetoric coming from countries bordering the Baltic Sea…

Darras's avatar

It's like Saturday night downtown when you see a bunch of boys coming drink a beer and meet girls. You gave the big boys, quiet, nice, laughing, drinking, flirting. You have the handsome or charming boys seducing all around. And you have always one or two small, ugly, weak and shitty assholes who mess badly with girls and bully everybody, sure of the protection of the bunch.

When I was teen, I had to fight often for this kind of tiny lowlife.

It's exactly the same.

Kennewick Man's avatar

I think it is in the water there...

Feral Finster's avatar

Take away tension with Russia and poland goes from America's Special Little Buddy to a backwater mid-tier satrapy with delusions of grandeur.

Darras's avatar

Don't need that. In western Europe we saw the abject polish game with USA as soon as we were fool and dumb enough to allow them in UE.

We the first euros we gave to them, they bought US F16. Disgusting.

Kennewick Man's avatar

Considering the meaning of Bartlomiej Babuska’s last name in Russian the plan is fairly ambitious. If I was a Polish investor I would wait with my first move until the Polish Army proves itself against the Russian Federation on the battlefield. As Babuska is planning to settle down in Odessa, just a stone throw from Crimea, some tensions will surely develop there. The most likely outcome will be a demolition derby initiated by the Russians. I have a difficult time to take the Babuska Plan seriously.

A Skeptic's avatar

Thanks for your great work Andrew!

We've shared the link on our daily report.

A Skeptic War Reports

https://askeptic.substack.com/

Mediocrates's avatar

Any Polish backed infrastructure created in Ukraine will be instantly subject to demolition by Ukrainian Banderites, pro-Russian subversives and/or agents of the disaffected EU. Just like the Nordstream pipelines.

Feral Finster's avatar

"To summarize, Poland wisely concluded that economic diplomacy is a much less risky way to profit from post-war Ukraine than deploying troops there, which could be targeted by local ultra-nationalists due to their historical memory of what they consider to have been centuries of “Polish occupation”."

Economic and military projection are not mutually exclusive. In fact, if anyone were concerned with Ukrainian nationalists, infrastructure projects are eminently vulnerable.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Trump thinks Ukraine can get back all of their territory from Russia…from Russia with 💕!!!