Polish Polarization Over Ukraine Is Likely The New Normal

What was once one of the most Ukrainophilic societies on earth in recent years is now becoming one of the most critical.

The spiraling Polish-Ukrainian dispute that was sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits has polarized Poles over Ukraine in unprecedented ways that would have been unthinkable just several months ago. Nowadays nearly 60% of Poles oppose Ukraine’s membership in the EU, slightly over half no longer want to accept more Ukrainian refugees, and a little less than half want to stop arming Ukraine. All of this is directly due to their political tensions.

As difficult as it may be for astute observers to accept, few Poles knew about Ukraine’s glorification of the OUN-UPA till recently, and those who were aware of it were told by their ruling duopoly and “NGOs” that they’re a “Russian footwrap” (“Ruska onuca”) for believing this. It wasn’t till conservative President Karol Nawrocki threatened to revoke Poland’s highest honor from Zelensky, actually went through with it, and then Ukrainian society and the state viciously reacted that this finally became public knowledge.

Nawrocki raised the greatest awareness of Ukraine’s glorification of the OUN-UPA among his compatriots, around which time the conservative opposition with which he’s affiliated (he’s officially an independent) did the same for electioneering reasons ahead of fall 2027’s next Sejm elections. For background, they donated Poland’s entire stockpile to Ukraine and spent 4.91% of their country’s GDP on supporting it (mostly supporting refugees), all without any Volhynia-related political strings attached.

Shortly after, the ruling liberal coalition was then pushed by public pressure into hardening their own approach to Ukraine as well, but they too already discredited themselves on this issue. That’s why the two libertarian-nationalist opposition parties now have more support (26.3%) than the newly divided conservative one (24.3%) per reputable polling since they consistently advocated for strings-attached aid and condemned Ukraine’s cult of Bandera. They could all possibly form a coalition if this trend persists.

While it’s difficult to predict how fall 2027’s next Sejm elections will play out, the trend is that Poles are polarized over Ukraine like never before, and this will almost certainly remain a major political issue. The newfound awareness among them over Ukrainians’ support for the OUN-UPA genocidaires of their ancestors contributed to more of them feeling uncomfortable with so many of these refugees remaining in Poland. Highly publicized crimes by this community haven’t helped their reputation either.

On the foreign front, “Poland Finally Realizes The Geostrategic Challenge Posed By Ukraine”, namely as a German-backed rival for leadership over Central & Eastern Europe. Poles are also unsettled by Ukrainian trolling on social media, which includes justifying the Volhynia Genocide, and Ukraine’s plans to build a “national pantheon” that’ll likely inter the remains of OUN-UPA leaders. The negative impressions of Ukraine and its people that the latest developments have made upon them won’t be forgotten.

For these reasons, Polish polarization over Ukraine is likely the new normal, one that’ll also have far-reaching electoral consequences ahead of fall 2027’s next Sejm elections. What was once one of the most Ukrainophilic societies on earth in recent years is now becoming one of the most critical. Zelensky is entirely to blame for setting this process into motion with his unnecessary state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA leaders aimed solely at boosting his people’s sagging morale.