Przemysław Piasta Has A Point: Post-Conflict Ukraine Will Pose A Serious Threat To Poland

Veterans, Ukrainian refugees, and the fifth column inside of Poland could all soon be weaponized as part of a post-conflict irredentist project.

Przemysław Piasta, the President of the Roman Dmowski National Foundation named after one of modern-day Poland’s founding fathers, published an intriguing piece at Myśl Polska about how “Ukraine brings us closer to Russia”. He compellingly argues that Zelensky’s glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits, which prompted President Karol Nawrocki to revoke the Order of the White Eagle from him, proves that Ukraine considers Poland to be an enemy state on par with Russia.

Piasta then echoed top Polish expert Sławomir Dębski’s prediction that Ukraine will scapegoat Poland for its loss to Russia, but he went even further by warning that it might then target Poland. Although he didn’t specify the exact nature of the potential threat that it could pose, one could surmise that Ukraine might revive its brief century-old claims to southeastern Poland, to which end it could rely on veterans, Ukrainian refugees, and the fifth column inside of Poland that he drew attention to in his piece.

For background, Zelensky’s top advisor Mikhail Podolyak boasted in summer 2023 that “we will have a competitive relationship” with Poland after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. Then “A Shitpost Map Of Poland Triggered The OUN Chief Into Warning That ‘Poles Are Playing With Fire’” in fall 2024 with the innuendo that Kiev might revive the abovementioned claims. Just several months later, former Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that “Ukraine’s Traumatized Troops Could Pose A Security Threat To All Of Europe”.

This was followed that fall by “The Ukrainian Ambassador To Poland Admitting That His Co-Ethnics Don’t Want To Assimilate” and Ukrainian media happily predicting that “An Ethnic Ukrainian Lobby Might Soon Take Shape In The Polish Sejm”. Earlier this year, Poland launched “Project Trident” to thwart a post-conflict Ukrainian crime wave, which could also have a dual anti-insurgency purpose. All of this lends credence to Piasta’s warning that post-conflict Ukraine will pose a serious threat to Poland.

Having contextualized what he wrote, it’s now time to move on to his proposals, the first of which is for Poland to stop sending modern arms to Ukraine in favor of older ones so as not to give its potential foe an advantage in the scenario that was described. In parallel, Poland should also double down on developing its (embarrassingly underdeveloped) domestic military-industrial complex in order to mass-produce the equipment that it would require in the event of a conventional conflict with Ukraine.

Universal military service should also be restored, Piasta proposed, and the fifth column should be neutralized by the counterintelligence services. He also demanded that “All individuals deemed unnecessary to the Polish economy should be deported…All individuals breaking the law should also be removed from the territory of the Republic of Poland, regardless of the scale and category of the crime or even the misdemeanor they committed.” Poland should also patch up its problems with Russia.

Regardless of whatever one might think about his piece, its importance rests in the fact that some Poles are now beginning to reconceptualize Ukraine as an enemy instead of the ally that it was previously assumed to be, which could have political consequences if a critical mass of society embraces this view. Zelensky is already meddling in Polish politics as proven by his Chief of Staff Kirill Budanov’s recent mission to manipulate Nawrocki’s team so it’s likely that much more unfriendly actions will soon follow.