43 Comments
User's avatar
Darras's avatar

Why didn't do it sooner? UE have stolen Russia's money, UE spit everyday on Russia, UE help to kill Russians, UE seize Russia's tankers, UE help to submit Russia's friends...

For any European, those are not proofs of reliability and wisdom, it's only proof of terrible weakness.

Andrew Korybko's avatar

There was always the possibility of the US and its Gulf allies replacing lost Russian oil and gas, although of course not right away, and Putin didn't cut the EU off right away since he thought that the SMO would be wrapped up by early spring 2022.

He therefore didn't want to lose his largest export market through these means, which he likely wouldn't ever regain after doing so, hence why he eschewed that option to the consternation of his supporters.

As "luck" would have it, however, Gulf supply is now indefinitely offline for all intents and purposes while the US itself cannot replace it, ergo the need for Russia to do so and thus why the US waive the sanctions on India last week to this end.

It might do the same with the EU, but without Russia's consent, they're not getting its LNG, and without Russia's LNG, the EU will probably without exaggeration enter into a full-blown economic crisis.

With these factors in mind, it's my assessment that Russia now enjoys unparalleled leverage beyond whatever it previously wielded, even at the beginning of the SMO. It's now up to the MFA not to mess this up....

Darras's avatar

And the most vulnerable country of UE to gaz embargo is Germany.

I'm very interested to see the reactions of european medias whores and jesters:

" Incredible, the awful tyrant babies eater Poutine dared stop providing gaz to UE in a an inexplicable and unjustifiable act of barbaric aggression".

😂😂😂

Healthy Wellness's avatar

How so? Germany (and Poland, Finland) no longer import gas from Russia since 2024 - not by pipeline or LNG. Germany replaced Russian supply mainly with Norwegian pipeline gas and LNG imports (US, Qatar, others).

Only Hungary, Slovakia and Austria rely on Russian gas.

Czechia ~25%

France, Spain, Belgium 10% to 15%

Italy, Netherlands at 5% to 10%

Slightly Lucid's avatar

Imma gonna call bullshit. In Italy, at the start of the Ukraine war and the ensuing embargoes, in Italy our energy prices doubled from one month to the next.

In the last 5 days, our energy and gas has risen another 20%.

Regardless of where the supplies directly come from, the shutting off of any pipeline means that prices rise.

Healthy Wellness's avatar

Here's Italy's 2024 official government report;

https://www.arera.it/fileadmin/EN/publications/annual_report/summary_2023.pdf.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

2023 Volume (billion m³)

Algeria - 25.5 bcm

Azerbaijan - 10 bcm

Qatar - 6.8 bcm

United States - 5.3 bcm

Norway + Netherlands - 6.6 bcm

Libya - 2.5 bcm

Other countries - ~2 bcm

Or these US Trade Reports;

https://www.trade.gov/market-intelligence/italy-energy-liquefied-natural-gas-lng

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/italy-natural-gas-renewable-energy

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Great comment. I’ve been checking out oil and gas prices every day for the last several years and now I’m going to check out Berlin weather every day…the forecast has what looks to me like spring weather which means less heating.

Oxygene84's avatar

Guess I'll be the second to call bullshit. People often tend to misjudge reality for wishes.

2 minutes of using a search engine!

https://en.highnorthnews.com/business/germany-cant-shake-russian-gas-lng-purchases-from-arctic-yamal-project-skyrocket/123243

“For example, Russian LNG imported via Belgium to Germany is labelled as gas from Belgium in the official German gas import data, even though there is no such thing as Belgian gas,” the report highlights.

Feral Finster's avatar

Yes, that's exactly what we'll hear.

Oxygene84's avatar

"Poutine dared stop providing gaz to UE in a an inexplicable and unjustifiable act of barbaric aggression". Fact! One of my gullible ignorant colleagues 3 days ago spoke like that.

Love never fails's avatar

Don't you think that all these developments were already factored into the scenarios of the US elites?

Here in Frankfurt, we have people in banks who, in December even before the attack on Caracas, advised clients in stock consultations about a probable war with Iran and the exorbitant rise in fossil fuel prices till March 2026.

Massive bets were placed on this (not only) in the West. In Germany, funnily enough, this was particularly the case among the Green Party, who entered the business with Rheinmetall shares.

The woke indulgence merchants and war profiteers have taken a liking to Trump's MAGA.

In any case, I see a long-term agenda here in which these value creation scenarios for the Deep State magnates are planned in rows to keep the elites happy.

The rest is human waste for the USA.

As we know, even for woke stock speculators who otherwise vilify capitalism as the plague, human losses are not a problem, especially when it affects Shiite girls' schools.

At least you don't hear a word about it from these hypocrites.

The US master plan subordinates everything to the ultimate goal.

And that goal is solely and exclusively:

to conquer everything and, if possible, to grab values or resources even before victory is achieved.

Darras's avatar

In France, the favorite sentence of those abject bugs is: " one don't cook omelet without breaking eggs".

Gene Frenkle's avatar

EU storage levels are at 30%…but America’s LNG is still flowing and so I can’t imagine EU will run out but storage levels could get lower. And I just checked out the forecast and Berlin has highs in the 60s right now and for the next 10 days…looks like the weather isn’t going to bail Putin out.

Darras's avatar

Dumb reasoning.

Germany is probably the country in UE the most exposed to the Gaz PRICE because the one the biggest ratio of gaz in its energy mix.

From Russia or not.

Healthy Wellness's avatar

You wrote, "And the most vulnerable country of UE to gaz embargo is Germany," referring to Russian gas. You lose again. Better luck next time.

voza0db's avatar

Re-directing huge amounts of GAS requires TIME!

Walter DuBlanica's avatar

With EUJ's anti Russian attitude in the war in Ukraine, Russia should have done so a long time ago. Why wait any longer???

Feral Finster's avatar

Let's see if he does it. "Don’t make me do this! Are you sure you want to go there? I'm serious this time!" is the sure sign of someone who doesn't want to act decisively.

There's also the possibility that the war and shipping insurance get resolved soon, but Russia really isn't out so much.

Darras's avatar

😂" you already grabbed my 172 first red lines but I warn you!!! This time it will be harsh....heuuuuu... perhaps.... certainly....or not....we'll talk about it at the council... after having talk with Bordachev and Lukyanov..."

Ж.Д.'s avatar

Sanctioning the sanctioner?

Regis Tremblay's avatar

"Putin might finally deal a long-awaited deathblow to the EU economy." Way past time to turn off the spigot, and for all the reasons Darras listed in his comment below. Just do it. Russia will need the extra profits and income in its coffers.

Slightly Lucid's avatar

Being in the EU, I am personally going to be paying for the EUs absurd war-mongering. Still, 😚👌 to Putin. What the fuck did the EU parliament and our feckless us ass kissing leadership expect?

Silverback's avatar

The Russian LNG cargoes are fungible. In other words they simply swap cargoes destined for non EU markets with the Russian cargoes. Journey times are longer but overall very little change in volumes.

Silverback's avatar

It just means that the LNG that was going to Europe goes to Asia, while the gas that was going to Asia will go to Europe and overall everyone gets the same amount of gas give or take… just less efficiently.

Cutting Turkstream pipe gas to Europe would have a real effect but most of that gas goes to the Balkans some of whom are sympathetic to Russia.

Some think Putin will not do much of anything. As many people in Russia see it, his gradualist and moderate approach is a betrayal of Russia. Hardliners believe that the only thing Russia’s enemies understand is brute force and that the war could have been over (and many Russian lives saved) if the gloves had come off a long time ago.

It’s clear the west are out of control and cannot be trusted diplomatically, and yet Putin continues to try to reason with western elites. Meanwhile Russian men lose their lives.

Parti's avatar

I totally agree with this assessment. While the West paints him as ruthless, he has too much empathy for Ukraine. If the US would be in Russia's shoes, Ukraine would have been bombed to the stone age years ago. No electricity or water in Kiev since day one of the MSO. no government building would be standing either and the government may have been targeted directly. Well, the price is being paid by Russians with their lives while the EU and Ukrainian policy makers are laughing at Putin's softness.

Herman's avatar

"... they simply swap cargoes destined for non EU markets with the Russian cargoes."

I don't understand what you mean.

Darras's avatar

He mean that Russia sells to India or other eastern countries which sell it to Europeans with benefits

Budimir Simun's avatar

Šah mat 4 the zionism and talmudism

Mediocrates's avatar

Well the EU, UK and USA will be right pissed off with Putin - but really, what did they expect Putin to do regarding Zelensky's intransigence? Surely they are not so surprised? The big issue will be whether Trump will come in heavy to try to dissuade Putin from destroying the EU economy. I expect that he may not as Trump doesn't have a lot of love for either Germany, Poland , UK or France and may try to gain some market dominance over Europe.

Jojo's avatar

Good. The EU should have given up Russian LNP 2 years ago and they should have been building nuclear plants.

Darras's avatar

Out of topic:

Pezeskian just claimed like Churchill ( or Rodriguez in Venezuela?) " Iran will never surrender".

So.

Either I was mistaken and he is not a yellow liver.

Either he is actually a yellow liver but he and his gang have been kicked ass by the hard faction

That said, Iran apparatus seems to remain firm and is seemingly far from as rotten than Syrian or Venezuelian.

Bad news for Trump who is reduced to a kind of Poutine in may 2022.

Bibi doesn't care, all ir want is tilo pound Iran to death.

voza0db's avatar

Europeans DESERVE to be fucked... EVERYDAY.

Fernando Castro's avatar

Putin is thinking ahead. He knows that when the brainless people currently in Europe leave, Russia will be there to sell them energy.

ironicskeptic's avatar

«Russia’s LNG exports to the EU be redirected to Asia»

I wonder whether that "Asia" includes India where indian oligarchs buy cheap RF oil paid in worthless freshly printed rupees and then sell it for euros or dollars on the international markets making fabulous profits in hard currency. It looks like the RF government is donating large amounts to some indian oligarchs to keep them on their side but I would not trust those oligarchs very much.

Aij's avatar

China, Russia and the global south needs to tell the west FU and just move on. Let them crumble and attack each others. Big powers like Russia and China need to take leadership roles now.

nicholas hughes's avatar

God I hope so It appears to me that Putin has this habit of being reluctant to go for the jugular He needs to learn the lesson of applied cruelty and viciousness and drop the Lawyer think and reliance on other people's rationality