The Arctic front of the New Cold War is thawing a lot quicker than the Baltic one since the first is where the US could prospectively cooperate with Russia while the second is where the UK could try to provoke a crisis with Russia.
I am kind of getting used to this: once a week in the last two month we hear another insane idea coming forward from another insane government. If Finland and Estonia tries to blockade St. Petersburg, boats will start sinking there in the blink of an eye. I am not going to go into many details of the 1939 Winter War between the Soviets and Finland. The Finnish Army started well but the Soviets were willing to suffer five time more casualties and took around 10% of Finland’s territory after a few months.
Closing the Russian transit through the Suvalki gap (Lithuania/Poland border) - something Col Roderich Kiesewetter (Defense Spokesman for German CDU) suggested - would indeed be a casus belli. Lithuania or Estonia will be difficult to defend. Finnland is different.
Finland is different as it has an 830 mile long border with Russia, almost to the very cold world of the Barents Sea. To guard this border and some more with an army organized from the less than six million populations is a substantial task. The country can be turned into Ukraine reloaded but I hope the people will not allow it.
Russians had 3 goes at Finnland - directly after the October revolution in 1918, then in the 39/40 Winter war and finally in the 1944 offensive. The first was an outright loss, 2nd and 3rd proved to be very hard going. Finns have conscription and the young men have very thorough military training. My guess would be if Finns initiate something, Russians will just respond with a naval blockade using drones and missiles. Besides, Russian interest is not to occupy Finnland but to push it back to friendly neutrality status which that country committed to in August 1944.
Good point. Russia has so much cold weather territory in Siberia that they really don't need the headache of Finland's occupation. Stalin actually did make a serious attempt to negotiate his way through before the Winter War, he knew it was not going to be a cakewalk. His rational was to gain control some smaller islands and pieces of land that he needed in case of a German attack. Finland refused his requests because they were unable to trust him. They thought that more requests were lined up for later.
I don't know the timeframe, but I very strongly believe that it'll be connected to a ceasefire or armistice as part of the phased removal of US sanctions on Russia.
I wouldn't jump the gun on predicting that it would be imminent, but I do think that it'll eventually be included in the phased removal of US sanctions, perhaps after some time has passed during a full ceasefire as a reward for Russia's compliance.
Once Americans and Russians have reached a detente, it won't be in American interests for Russians to supply China at below the world market prices. Which is currently happening. Same as with India. Both countries are reaping windfall profits from Western sanctions.
Each of the three countries trying to sabotage the Trump-Putin detente have unstable weak governments: UK, France, Germany. The UK seems to be the most willing to act kinetically while France and Germany seem satisfied to threaten "spending". If Trump ignores the UK's meddling in the Baltics, then he will demonstrate real weakness, which would be totally out of character for him. So, I expect Trump to ignore the French and Germans, and bitch slap the UK economy soon in an attempt to bring down the Starmer/Labor government. He is just waiting for the timing to be propitious. The US-UK negotiations (deadline of April 2nd) over the UK digital services tax could provide a trigger.
Never, ever trust the British.. we know thar from 700 years of occupation.. they lie abd they cheat; they orchestrate fakse flag operations.. Just be smart: Do not, under any circumstances l, trust them!
If Trump can't get the Senate to sign a treaty with Russia then Putin should walkaway. Even if a treaty were to be signed it would not be trustworthy because the U.S. makes agreements that it later abandons.
The One China, stating that there's one Chinese government and that it icludes Taiwan, has been nullified through the Yaiwan Relations Act that the Senate also passed subsequently. And which enables the U.S. to continue to arm Taiwan and station its soldiers on Taiwan land.
Any Artic partnership between Russia and the U.S. must include China. The reason for this is clear. If the U.S. won't include China then Putin will know that Trump's intentions aren't pure. That the U.S. is only trying to tear Russia and China apart.
The U.S. is no more of an Artic nation than it is an Asian. Russia has the biggest Artic coastline of any of them.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Neither Trump nor any of the other U.S. politicians can be trusted. Even Tulsi Gabbard has been made to do a 180 on her stance against war in the Middle East.
Plus Trump's thinking process is totally a moral and logical mess.
Great article Andrew, thanks for posting. One small difference of opinion, if I may; You state that governments don’t always reflect the will of their citizens in regards to foreign policy. IMO governments rarely if ever represent the will of their people in foreign policy matters, this is an area to which elites jealously reserve for themselves exclusively! I will cite the most obvious example; the American led invasion of Iraq. People numbering into the millions participated in demonstrations, in the US but particularly in Italy and the UK. In this case France was the exception and did as their population demanded… which happened to coincide with elite opinion. Or maybe it was the other way around ;)
I can assure you that the US is playing the UK and in doing so is playing anyone who believes that the UK or any other country within the US empire of NATO is in anyway independent and making their own military decisions here. The US threats to effectively send all of Europe in to fight Russia for the US while the US withdraws from its own empire (as if!) are nothing more than bluffs and or double bluffs. The US has been attempting to play poker at Russia's chess board unsuccessfully for soon 4 years now from Biden's bosses Strategic Defense Initiative of 9/21
I am kind of getting used to this: once a week in the last two month we hear another insane idea coming forward from another insane government. If Finland and Estonia tries to blockade St. Petersburg, boats will start sinking there in the blink of an eye. I am not going to go into many details of the 1939 Winter War between the Soviets and Finland. The Finnish Army started well but the Soviets were willing to suffer five time more casualties and took around 10% of Finland’s territory after a few months.
A blockade against Russia that would close down their exit toward Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic is equal to a declaration of war.
Closing the Russian transit through the Suvalki gap (Lithuania/Poland border) - something Col Roderich Kiesewetter (Defense Spokesman for German CDU) suggested - would indeed be a casus belli. Lithuania or Estonia will be difficult to defend. Finnland is different.
Finland is different as it has an 830 mile long border with Russia, almost to the very cold world of the Barents Sea. To guard this border and some more with an army organized from the less than six million populations is a substantial task. The country can be turned into Ukraine reloaded but I hope the people will not allow it.
Russians had 3 goes at Finnland - directly after the October revolution in 1918, then in the 39/40 Winter war and finally in the 1944 offensive. The first was an outright loss, 2nd and 3rd proved to be very hard going. Finns have conscription and the young men have very thorough military training. My guess would be if Finns initiate something, Russians will just respond with a naval blockade using drones and missiles. Besides, Russian interest is not to occupy Finnland but to push it back to friendly neutrality status which that country committed to in August 1944.
Good point. Russia has so much cold weather territory in Siberia that they really don't need the headache of Finland's occupation. Stalin actually did make a serious attempt to negotiate his way through before the Winter War, he knew it was not going to be a cakewalk. His rational was to gain control some smaller islands and pieces of land that he needed in case of a German attack. Finland refused his requests because they were unable to trust him. They thought that more requests were lined up for later.
Do you have a view on when/if Russian LNG from Arctic 2 will be unsanctioned?
I don't know the timeframe, but I very strongly believe that it'll be connected to a ceasefire or armistice as part of the phased removal of US sanctions on Russia.
There is already a partial ceasefire in place. Do you therefore believe it could be imminent? Thank you!
I wouldn't jump the gun on predicting that it would be imminent, but I do think that it'll eventually be included in the phased removal of US sanctions, perhaps after some time has passed during a full ceasefire as a reward for Russia's compliance.
Thank you, Mr. Korybko!
Once Americans and Russians have reached a detente, it won't be in American interests for Russians to supply China at below the world market prices. Which is currently happening. Same as with India. Both countries are reaping windfall profits from Western sanctions.
Each of the three countries trying to sabotage the Trump-Putin detente have unstable weak governments: UK, France, Germany. The UK seems to be the most willing to act kinetically while France and Germany seem satisfied to threaten "spending". If Trump ignores the UK's meddling in the Baltics, then he will demonstrate real weakness, which would be totally out of character for him. So, I expect Trump to ignore the French and Germans, and bitch slap the UK economy soon in an attempt to bring down the Starmer/Labor government. He is just waiting for the timing to be propitious. The US-UK negotiations (deadline of April 2nd) over the UK digital services tax could provide a trigger.
Oh I so hope you are right! Maybe the sound of the slap will bring others to their senses
Never, ever trust the British.. we know thar from 700 years of occupation.. they lie abd they cheat; they orchestrate fakse flag operations.. Just be smart: Do not, under any circumstances l, trust them!
If Trump can't get the Senate to sign a treaty with Russia then Putin should walkaway. Even if a treaty were to be signed it would not be trustworthy because the U.S. makes agreements that it later abandons.
The One China, stating that there's one Chinese government and that it icludes Taiwan, has been nullified through the Yaiwan Relations Act that the Senate also passed subsequently. And which enables the U.S. to continue to arm Taiwan and station its soldiers on Taiwan land.
Any Artic partnership between Russia and the U.S. must include China. The reason for this is clear. If the U.S. won't include China then Putin will know that Trump's intentions aren't pure. That the U.S. is only trying to tear Russia and China apart.
The U.S. is no more of an Artic nation than it is an Asian. Russia has the biggest Artic coastline of any of them.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Neither Trump nor any of the other U.S. politicians can be trusted. Even Tulsi Gabbard has been made to do a 180 on her stance against war in the Middle East.
Plus Trump's thinking process is totally a moral and logical mess.
Great article Andrew, thanks for posting. One small difference of opinion, if I may; You state that governments don’t always reflect the will of their citizens in regards to foreign policy. IMO governments rarely if ever represent the will of their people in foreign policy matters, this is an area to which elites jealously reserve for themselves exclusively! I will cite the most obvious example; the American led invasion of Iraq. People numbering into the millions participated in demonstrations, in the US but particularly in Italy and the UK. In this case France was the exception and did as their population demanded… which happened to coincide with elite opinion. Or maybe it was the other way around ;)
I can assure you that the US is playing the UK and in doing so is playing anyone who believes that the UK or any other country within the US empire of NATO is in anyway independent and making their own military decisions here. The US threats to effectively send all of Europe in to fight Russia for the US while the US withdraws from its own empire (as if!) are nothing more than bluffs and or double bluffs. The US has been attempting to play poker at Russia's chess board unsuccessfully for soon 4 years now from Biden's bosses Strategic Defense Initiative of 9/21