Reviewing Medvedev’s Article About Germany’s Remilitarization

His article is the most detailed warning yet from the most senior Russian official thus far of what the Kremlin is contemplating, under the newfound influence of hardliners like Sergey Karaganov whose sway over Putin has grown in recent months, to avert this growing German-led 1941-like threat.

Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev published an incredibly detailed article ahead of Victory Day about Germany’s remilitarization. It’s much too lengthy to review point by point so the present piece will only highlight the main takeaways before analyzing its significance. Medvedev devotes considerable time to making the argument that Germany never fully denazified nor was this ever even sincerely attempted. That sets the stage for the present.

According to him, “The process of finally eliminating the political, legal and moral ‘vestiges’ of World War II in Germany has gained particular momentum following the beginning of the special military operation.” Likewise, “To mitigate the impact of failed geopolitical investments (in Ukraine), Berlin aims to consolidate its position as the leading military and political power of the European Union.” This led to its unprecedented remilitarization, which is dependent on the US, and informal talk of going nuclear.

On that topic, Medvedev warned that Russia could use its own nuclear weapons against Germany in accordance with its doctrine to preemptively avert this threat, which he said might threaten the US too. He also spent lots of time arguing that Germany’s legal foundations are illegitimate, not least because it annexed East Germany without “observing generally accepted legal procedures” like a referendum. Most of Europe is nevertheless now marching to Germany’s anti-Russian tune just like 85 years ago in 1941.

Germany can never defeat Russia even with all of Europe behind it, Medvedev believes, hence why “Its objective is to draw its ally, Washington, into a potential confrontation between Europe and Russia.” Seeing as how “The main task for our country is to prevent the repetition of the tragedy of 1941…should the most dreadful scenario come to pass, the probability is high of at least mutual destruction, and, in reality, the end of European civilization while our own existence continues.” These are very strong words.

Coming from someone of his position, especially a hardliner whose faction now partially supercedes the moderates for the reasons explained here with regards to why Russia’s threat of massive retaliatory strikes against Kiev likely isn’t a bluff, they should be taken extremely seriously by the West. The message being sent is that Russia will not allow Germany to lead the remilitarization of Europe, with an emphasis on Poland and Ukraine being its battering rams this time around, and thus pose another 1941-like threat.

France and the UK, under whose nuclear umbrellas Germany plans to place itself (before possibly developing its own nukes), are “unlikely to risk burning in a nuclear apocalypse” for Germany’s sake per Medvedev. This contextualizes his assessment of Germany trying to draw the US into an impending war with Russia instead. It’s therefore incumbent on the US to either end its support for Germany’s remilitarization, officially abrogate Article 5 ahead of this scenario, or accept the consequences.

Medvedev’s article is the most detailed warning yet from the most senior Russian official thus far of what the Kremlin is contemplating, under the newfound influence of hardliners like Sergey Karaganov whose sway over Putin has grown in recent months, to avert this growing German-led 1941-like threat. Trump could restore his envisaged legacy as peacemaker despite the Third Gulf War by urgently working with Putin to reform the European security architecture. Whether he will, however, remains to be seen.