Reviewing The Russian Defense Minister’s Assessment Of Threats To The SCO

Unless they all get on the same page, and soon, the West risks dividing-and-ruling the SCO.

Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov described the threats facing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) during his speech at the group’s Defense Ministers’ meeting in Bishkek in late April. He began by sharing the backdrop: “In order to maintain global dominance, the United States and the collective West are destroying the foundations of the global security architecture. Their aggressive course exacerbates geopolitical divisions and undermines strategic stability and key peace agreements.”

Belousov then segued into condemning the joint US-Israeli war on Iran while praising the SCO, and in particular Pakistan, for their efforts to end it and thus restore regional stability. Skipping the parts about Central Asia and Afghanistan till later since they deserve special elaboration, the following part saw him express concern about the situations in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. None of them are in the SCO but they concern what can be considered to be Iran’s contentious sphere of influence.

As for the Asia-Pacific, Belousov said that “’They are seeking to transform the regional security system into an American-centric one by strengthening Washington-controlled military and political structures. Such actions provoke tension, undermine regional stability, and increase the risks of armed conflicts.” The last threat that he mentioned was Ukraine, where he said that the US role has declined while the EU one has increased. The analysis will now elaborate on what he said about Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Regarding Central Asia, Belousov revealed that “We are closely monitoring the attempts of extra-regional states to ensure military presence and logistical missions in Central Asia. We consider this unacceptable.” Such statements by Russian officials were previously an allusion to the US’ efforts to restore its Afghan War-era influence there but now arguably concern Turkiye’s too after the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), a dual-use NATO military logistics corridor, was unveiled last August.

Moving along to Afghanistan, Belousov reaffirmed that “The situation is still unstable in Afghanistan. It remains the main source of transnational crime and terrorist threats.” This simultaneously justifies Russia’s continued military presence in neighboring Tajikistan as well as Pakistan’s war on the Taliban. To be sure, Russia still balances between both combatants, but it seems to sympathize with Pakistan more. This aligns with the evolving Russian-Pakistani rapprochement that’s accelerated in recent years.

Reviewing Belousov’s assessment of threats to the SCO, the ones involving Central Asia and Afghanistan are the most relevant for the organization as a whole, with the West Asian ones only affecting Iran, the Asia-Pacific one only affecting China, and the Ukrainian one only affecting Russia. The subtext of his speech is therefore that a “New Great Game” is gradually unfolding in the Eurasian Heartland, which will require the SCO sticking together and jointly confronting these threats in order to win.

Winning is perceived differently by key players, however: Russia wants to contain TRIPP-driven Western influence; some Central Asian Republics like those in the Turkish-led “Organization of Turkic States” want more Turkish influence; while China appears indifferent (for now). All of them are opposed to Afghan-emanating terrorist threats, but nobody wants to mention that foreign fighters enter Afghanistan from Pakistan. Unless they all get on the same page, and soon, the West risks dividing-and-ruling the SCO.