President Ilham Aliyev is a rational leader who might conclude that it’s better to cut mutually beneficial deals with Russia and Iran for resolving Azerbaijan’s TRIPP-centric security dilemma with them than to endanger his country’s future as a favor to the West.
If Iran succeed in resisting to USA, Azerbaijan will have to play softly with it and Russia.
If Iran collapse or submit to USA after a regime change, Azerbaijan will cut the south bound of Russia.
With the proven nullity of Chinese AD during the Pakistan-India short war and now Ramadan war, and the seemingly collapse of Western friendly faction, Iran will probably reconsider its refusal of alliance with Russia.
In 2019, the Pentagon's privatized policy making arm, the RAND Corporation, published a report explaining all of the countries which could be used to weaken Russia. The 4th and 5th Measures are of particular relevance here, though the US Government has acted on all of these recommendations:-
● MEASURE 1: PROVIDE LETHAL AID TO UKRAINE
The West did this, and now has the proxy war it has been orchestrating since WWII. This proxy war has cost the lives of well over a million people so far.
● MEASURE 2: INCREASE SUPPORT TO THE SYRIAN REBELS
The West did this. Al Qaeda took control of Syria, and has murdered tens of thousands of ethnic minorities.
● MEASURE 3: PROMOTE REGIME CHANGE IN BELARUS.
The West's numerous attempts to achieve this have failed, though it did redouble it's efforts.
● MEASURE 4: EXPLOIT TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
The West is creating chaos throughout the Caucasus, in countries like: Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan;
● MEASURE 5: REDUCE RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
The West is creating chaos throughout Central Asia, inciting civil war in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
● MEASURE 6: CHALLENGE RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN MOLDOVA
The West is constantly stirring up trouble between Moldova and Transnistra.
I'm not aware of this, but it is a dynamic situation. No doubt the next stages will include another mixture of exploiting tensions, attempted regime change, lethal aid and support to terrorists. After all, these things have long formed the backbone of Anglo-American foreign policy...
«These calculations take for granted that neither Russia nor Iran, let alone both, will militarily stop him. [...] a unilateral or joint operation against Azerbaijan that swiftly destroys its highly vulnerable energy-dependent economy.»
A quick victorious small air war in west Asia. A not entirely original idea :-).
Please post another analysis about another possible route on the east side of the Caspian Sea. It seems to be further away from Russia's traditional economic centers on the west side of the Urals, but closer to the heavy industry centers on the east side of the Urals. Or if natural geography or other reasons make such a route obviously infeasible, please reply to this comment directly.
Russia & Iran are so much more powerful then Azerbaijian . Russia & iran will win this event. In all of these contests. Russia always wins. Russia is the worlds nucklear Super Powwer.
If Iran succeed in resisting to USA, Azerbaijan will have to play softly with it and Russia.
If Iran collapse or submit to USA after a regime change, Azerbaijan will cut the south bound of Russia.
With the proven nullity of Chinese AD during the Pakistan-India short war and now Ramadan war, and the seemingly collapse of Western friendly faction, Iran will probably reconsider its refusal of alliance with Russia.
It would be a major thunder in the world.
In 2019, the Pentagon's privatized policy making arm, the RAND Corporation, published a report explaining all of the countries which could be used to weaken Russia. The 4th and 5th Measures are of particular relevance here, though the US Government has acted on all of these recommendations:-
● MEASURE 1: PROVIDE LETHAL AID TO UKRAINE
The West did this, and now has the proxy war it has been orchestrating since WWII. This proxy war has cost the lives of well over a million people so far.
● MEASURE 2: INCREASE SUPPORT TO THE SYRIAN REBELS
The West did this. Al Qaeda took control of Syria, and has murdered tens of thousands of ethnic minorities.
● MEASURE 3: PROMOTE REGIME CHANGE IN BELARUS.
The West's numerous attempts to achieve this have failed, though it did redouble it's efforts.
● MEASURE 4: EXPLOIT TENSIONS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
The West is creating chaos throughout the Caucasus, in countries like: Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan;
● MEASURE 5: REDUCE RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
The West is creating chaos throughout Central Asia, inciting civil war in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
● MEASURE 6: CHALLENGE RUSSIAN PRESENCE IN MOLDOVA
The West is constantly stirring up trouble between Moldova and Transnistra.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Thank you
What it could be interesting is what is the current agenda of the Rand Corp. For 2032.
I'm not aware of this, but it is a dynamic situation. No doubt the next stages will include another mixture of exploiting tensions, attempted regime change, lethal aid and support to terrorists. After all, these things have long formed the backbone of Anglo-American foreign policy...
Russian and Iran have long had carrots and sticks. The question is whether they have the will to use them, or whether they just want to be liked.
«These calculations take for granted that neither Russia nor Iran, let alone both, will militarily stop him. [...] a unilateral or joint operation against Azerbaijan that swiftly destroys its highly vulnerable energy-dependent economy.»
A quick victorious small air war in west Asia. A not entirely original idea :-).
Comparison is not reason.
But let's compare:
USA-Iran: 12000km
Russia or Iran Azerbaijan: neighbours
Iran: 90 millions people
Azerbaijan: 8
Distance between Russia and Iran: 200km.
Iran : 80% mountains
Azerbaijan:70% plain
Iran: 1,7 million km²
Azerbaijan: 80000km²
Please post another analysis about another possible route on the east side of the Caspian Sea. It seems to be further away from Russia's traditional economic centers on the west side of the Urals, but closer to the heavy industry centers on the east side of the Urals. Or if natural geography or other reasons make such a route obviously infeasible, please reply to this comment directly.
It seems that everybody, USA and Russia included, beware Turkmenistan.
And if it's not Turkmenistan, it's Afghanistan...
Not really enjoying.
Russia & Iran are so much more powerful then Azerbaijian . Russia & iran will win this event. In all of these contests. Russia always wins. Russia is the worlds nucklear Super Powwer.