Russia Has A Better Chance Of Mediating Afghan-Pakistani Tensions Than China Does

Russia’s grand geo-economic plans in this part of Eurasia are dependent on the resolution of these tensions, while China’s will continue being advanced regardless of whatever happens with them.

Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Albert Khorev told TASS over the weekend that his country supports Pakistan and Afghanistan’s respective counter-terrorism efforts. He then added that it encourages both of them to resolve their border tensions through bilateral or multilateral means. This suggests a desire to mediate between them. China has already tried to do so but has struggled to achieve anything, yet Russia has a better chance of success for the reasons that’ll now be explained.

Russia’s grand geo-economic plan in this part of Eurasia is to pioneer parallel connectivity and energy corridors to India via Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. To that end, Russia must cultivate equally excellent relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan, help resolve their border tensions, and then do the same with Pakistan and India’s. The first step has already been achieved upon strategically partnering with the Taliban last summer and then clinching a strategic resource pact with Pakistan in December.

The second step will be much more difficult to fulfill but therein lies the purpose behind Ambassador Khorev’s latest remarks regarding Russia’s support for Pakistan and Afghanistan’s respective counter-terrorism efforts. On the one hand, he acknowledged his host country’s problems with Afghan-emanating terrorist threats, but on the other, he shied away from blaming the Taliban for them like Islamabad does and instead offered to provide them with vague “necessary assistance”.

The goal appears to be to empower each in their own way, the first through political support for stopping all terrorist infiltration from Afghanistan, and the second by possibly equipping them with small arms and potentially training their special forces to fight ISIS-K. Left unsaid is any reference to Pakistan’s claims that the Taliban backs the TTP (“Pakistani Taliban”) and other terrorist groups, however, though commenting on this either way would ruin Russia’s careful balancing act.

To be sure, China has already applied the same approach towards this issue, but it lacks the geo-economic vision that Russia does wherein the improvement of Afghan-Pakistani ties is integral to the success of its broader regional policy. Pakistan and Afghanistan don’t need to trade across one another’s territory in order to do business with China since the first employs the Belt & Road Initiative’s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor flagship to that end while the second has rail access to it via Central Asia.

Therefore, although China does indeed want its neighboring partners to work more closely together, this isn’t required to advance its geo-economic interests. The situation is altogether different with Russia, whose grand geo-economic plan necessitates Afghanistan and Pakistan patching up their problems in order to pioneer parallel connectivity and energy corridors that could one day ideally reach India. Those two therefore naturally understand that Russia has much greater stakes in mediation than China does.

Neither Afghanistan nor Pakistan would receive additional economic benefits from China upon resolving their tensions, but Pakistan could finally receive more direct overland connectivity with Russia and perhaps even energy from it with time too if that happens, both via Afghanistan. Likewise, Afghanistan could profit from its middleman role in these corridors, especially if they ever extend to India. No such benefits stand to be reaped from China if Beijing were to successfully mediate between them.

Accordingly, it’s incumbent on Russia to utilize creative means for moving this diplomatic process along to the best of its ability, which could include sharing detailed plans of its proposed connectivity and energy investments in both in Afghanistan and Pakistan should they agree to resolve their disputes. These could include specific projects, the estimated amount that’ll be invested, lending terms if required, the possibility for joint ownership of some sort, and the local labor that might be employed.

It might still not be enough for a breakthrough, but it would still be more than what China has offered to do if they make peace, which is nothing. Moreover, such a detailed proposal could later be returned to if the political and/or military situation changes and they decide to patch up their problems, in which case they’d have a mutual interest in reviving Russia’s plans. It’s too early to predict what’ll happen either way, just that Russia is expected to push for peace, and its efforts will be more meaningful than China’s.