Russia Is Taking The Finnish Front Of The New Cold War Very Seriously

Medvedev’s article shows that Russia is prepared to tackle all Finnish-emanating threats from NATO.

Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev published a scathing article at TASS in early September about “The New Finnish Doctrine: Stupidity, Lies, Ingratitude” in which he excoriated Finland for its former alliance with the Nazis and warned about new threats from it. This follows reports in May that Russia has been beefing up its defenses along the Finnish frontier, which was analyzed here and includes links to several briefings on this subject.

Much of Medvedev’s article is devoted to the WWII-era period, with special attention drawn to what the Supreme Court of Karelia (an autonomous republic in Russia bordering Finland) recognized last year as the Finnish Genocide of the Soviet People during that time. This focus is meant to remind Russians that Finland was once their country’s enemy even though Moscow showed mercy upon it after WWII in order to create a neutral buffer zone that formally remained in effect till Finland joined NATO in 2023.

Medvedev’s motive is to rally Russians in support of their country’s more muscular policy towards Finland in response to its new hostile policies since joining that bloc. These include compliance with Western sanctions and agreeing to let the US possibly use up to 15 military facilities. Moreover, NATO “is now intensively mastering all five operational environments of Suomi (how Finns refer to their country) - land, sea, air, space and cyberspace”, according to Medvedev. The threats are therefore multiplying.

He warned that Russia might pursue criminal liability for Finland’s WWII-era genocide of the Soviet People, since there’s no statute of limitations on this crime in international law, and demand more reparations if this trend continues as expected. His piece ended soon thereafter on the ominous note that Finland might lose its statehood “forever” if it participates in another war against Russia. The subtext is that this is an increasingly credible scenario that Russia is taking very seriously going forward.

It’s timely to re-evaluate the threat that NATO poses to Russia via Finland in light of this article. Prior to recent developments, it was thought by some in Russia that Finland’s formal membership in the bloc wouldn’t really change much since it was already a de facto member for decade, thus making this more of a symbolic achievement for NATO than a meaningful military-strategic one. What they didn’t foresee, however, was what Medvedev described as the “Ukrainization of Finland itself (that) took place quietly.”

This was brought about by the NATO-backed resurgence of ultra-nationalist sentiment in society that takes the form of ethno-territorial revanchist goals vis-à-vis Russia. To oversimplify a complex historical subject, Finno-Ugric people are indigenous to parts of modern-day Russia, including Karelia. Although they’ve integrated into society and are actually privileged in today’s Russia due to their minority status, which affords special rights for such groups, Finnish ultra-nationalists still want to annex their land.

The stage is accordingly being set for an escalation of New Cold War tensions between NATO and Russia along the Finnish frontier, thus serving as a triple extension of their already boiling ones in the Arctic, the Baltic, and Central Europe. Finland boasts the bloc’s largest land border with Russia by far, however, so NATO-related threats from there are more dangerous than from anywhere else. Russia is taking them very seriously though and is prepared to defend itself from any form of aggression that it might face.