Russia Is Worried That Israeli Strikes Risk Drawing Syria Deeper Into The West Asian Conflict
It can’t be ruled out that Russia’s aerial patrols and associated warning about the consequences of more Israeli strikes on Syria were due to it catching wind of President Assad’s possible plans to seek Iranian air defense systems that his troops could then use to shoot at attacking jets and risk escalating the West Asian conflict.
Russia's special presidential representative for the Syrian settlement Alexander Lavrentyev told reporters on Wednesday that “We know that the number of airstrikes that Israel conducts, as it puts it, against the facilities of pro-Iranian groups on Syrian territory, has increased. We are strongly against such a way of solving the issue as it only leads to escalation of violence. We do not want Syria to be involved in the regional conflict, and we will do our best to prevent it.”
He shared his concerns almost a week after Russia announced that it’s now carrying out aerial patrols along the so-called “Bravo Line” separating Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights. This sequence of events was interpreted by some members of the Alt-Media Community as signaling that Russia might finally try to deter, intercept, or respond to Israel’s hundreds of strikes on Syria since 2015. The following analyses, however, cast doubt on that conclusion for the reasons that’ll then be elaborated on:
* “Russia Is Unlikely To Let Syria Get Involved In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War”
* “Russia Isn’t Expected To Stop Israel’s Strikes In Syria”
* “Here’s Why Russia Didn’t Deter Or Respond To The US’ Latest Bombing Of Syria”
In brief, Russia won’t risk World War III by downing an Israeli jet for Syria’s sake even though it occasionally protests that country’s cross-border strikes, which it nevertheless tolerates as part of the complex regional balancing act between its close Israeli and Iranian partners that was explained here. That’s why it’s declined to do anything about these attacks for almost a decade already since the start of its anti-terrorist intervention there.
Any uncontrollable escalation of Israeli-Syrian tensions brought about by Damascus successfully defending itself, such as if it once again gets lucky like it did back in early 2018 by downing an attacking jet, could lead to a sequence of events that reverses Russia’s anti-terrorist successes over the years. Iran’s use of Syria as a base of operations for managing the northern front of its regional proxy war against Israel prompted the recent uptick in attacks that led to Russia losing control of military dynamics.
The Kremlin has no power over who President Assad decides to invite into his country and couldn’t stop him if he sought Iranian air defense systems that his troops could then use without Russian permission (unlike the S-300s that they received in late 2018 following a years-long delay) for shooting Israeli jets. In that event, the aforementioned escalation sequence could be catalyzed to the detriment of Russia’s anti-terrorist interests in the country that were responsible for its game-changing 2015 intervention there.
It’s in this context that Russia announced its aerial patrols along the Israeli-Syrian frontier, but this is just a superficial gesture aimed at conveying displeasure to the first and reassuring the second since the self-professed Jewish State can still strike the Arab Republic via Lebanese or Mediterranean airspace. Russia’s air defenses in its naval base in Lattakia or its nearby aerial one in Khmeimim never tried to intercept these missiles or shoot down the attacking jets so precedent suggests that its new patrols won’t either.
The only way to realistically reduce the chances of a larger Israeli-Syrian conflict by miscalculation is for Israel to either unilaterally eschew striking Iranian military-intelligence targets in the Arab Republic or for Syria to unilaterally request the departure of those Iranian assets that are already there. Neither appears interested in carrying out such concessions since they’d be at the expense of their objective national security interests by making them more vulnerable to their neighbor.
For that reason, it can’t be ruled out that Russia’s aerial patrols and associated warning about the consequences of more Israeli strikes on Syria were due to it catching wind of President Assad’s possible plans to seek Iranian air defense systems that his troops could then use to shoot at attacking jets. The conflict could spiral out of control if Damascus downs an Israeli jet with Iranian equipment, which is why Russia’s latest moves might be meant as a signal to mutually de-escalate before that happens.