Russia Thwarted France’s Latest Power Play In The Sahel

France attempted to exploit the preexisting rivalry between the Nigerien military and the Presidential Guard that was exacerbated by recent terrorist attacks as part of a plot to regain its lost influence.

A failed mutiny just took place in Niger after some members of the military turned their guns against the Presidential Guard in the latest phase of those two institutions’ rivalry. Recent terrorist attacks against the capital’s airport by Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP) and al Qaeda-affiliate “Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” (JNIM), which is allied with Mali’s “Azawad Liberation Front” (FLA) in that country’s ongoing war, seemingly exacerbated their tensions. There might be more to it, however.

Russian Ambassador Viktor Voropayev speculated that “These young officers are most likely being orchestrated from outside” in an allusion to France’s historical role in orchestrating regional coups. For background, the last coup in summer 2023 resulted in the withdrawal of its forces from Niger, and French media reported earlier in the year that their country is playing a secret role in the Malian War. Mali, Niger, and their neighbor Burkina Faso constitute the Sahelian Alliance that’s also a Confederation.

On that topic, the mutiny coincided with the start of their first-ever Confederal Parliament based in the Nigerien capital of Niamey, and the mutineers unsuccessfully attacked the hotel where the delegates and employees of the Russian Embassy were staying according to Voropayev. He also said that his host’s military command thanked Russia for the support that its Africa Corps provided in restoring order after earlier requesting such and reports subsequently circulating that their drone role was decisive.

In light of these facts, it arguably appears to be the case that France attempted to exploit the preexisting rivalry between the military and the Presidential Guard that was exacerbated by recent terrorist attacks as part of a plot to regain its lost influence in this uranium-rich country, but Russia foiled its bid. As a reminder, the Africa Corps is deployed to all three members of the Sahelian Alliance, where it provides Democratic Security services by defending their emerging democracies from Hybrid War threats.

Voropayev also mentioned that Algeria was the first to condemn the events in Niamey. This is significant since French media reported that Niger facilitated Russia’s efforts to broker the recent rapprochement between Algeria and Mali. Their spiraling tensions were earlier assessed here to have played a major role in sparking the latest Malian War due to Algeria’s logistical support for the FLA. Algeria opposes ISSP and JNIM, however, which could have taken advantage of another coup to sow maximum regional chaos.

Had the mutiny led to regime change, then Russia’s role in Niger might have been replaced by France per a quid pro quo agreed to with Paris, and the same goes for if the mutineers hadn’t been dislodged from the capital’s airport since French troops could have entered if the standoff persisted. In the worst-case scenario of full-blown chaos, France might have coordinated a joint intervention on anti-terrorist grounds with Nigeria, which intimated a unilateral intervention in Mali on this basis earlier this year.

These strategic threats haven’t been fully neutralized since a future mutiny is still possible. Therefore, the immediate priority is for Niger is to resolve the root issues behind the military’s rivalry with the Presidential Guard, which reportedly stem from the junta’s perceived preference for the latter while the former suffer growing casualties at the hands of ISSP and JNIM. Only once the entirety of the armed forces is at peace with themselves can Niger most effectively fight terrorism in partnership with Russia.