Russia Will No Longer Look The Other Way As Serbia Indirectly Arms Ukraine

Whatever ends up happening, and hopefully nothing too dramatic will unfold, it’s long overdue for Russia to finally call Vucic out.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused Serbia of shooting Russia in the back by arming Ukraine. Such reports first circulated in connection with spring 2023’s Pentagon leaks, but they were denied by President Aleksandar Vucic, who just defied EU pressure by visiting Moscow during Victory Day. He reacted to the latest news by declaring that he’ll block the supply of Serbian arms and ammo to countries that are suspected of sending them to Ukraine, but that contradicts what he said in June 2023.

Back then, he said that “Is it possible that it’s happening? I have no doubts that it might happen. What is the alternative for us? Not to produce it? Not to sell it?... But I’m not a fool. I am aware that some of the arms might end up in Ukraine.” In other words, he looked the other way as countries sent Serbian arms and ammo to Ukraine, but SVR’s report suggests that Russia will no longer look the other way about this. Russia might thus stop supporting his claim that recent protests against him are a Color Revolution.

To be absolutely clear, Russia won’t incite such demonstrations, but it might remain silent if he repeats these accusations the next time that there are large-scale protests against him. That would reflect the reality that there are legitimate reasons to oppose him, hint that the participants aren’t all pro-Western stooges, and potentially encourage patriots to keep up the pressure. That’s not to imply that Russia wants to replace him, just that it might now believe that holding his feet to the fire isn’t a bad thing.

After all, not only is he allowing other countries to send Serbian arms and ammo to Ukraine, but his top general hinted at carrying out a pro-Western military pivot under sanctions duress at the beginning of the year. Furthermore, Vucic recently sacked Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, who was widely considered to be the most Russian-friendly official in his government. These developments probably played a part in why SVR finally decided to call Vucic out for allowing Serbia to indirectly arm Ukraine.

It also can’t be ruled out that Russia obtained intelligence pointing to a more robustly pro-Western pivot by Serbia, such as official compliance with sanctions to complement its consistent votes against Russia at the UN or some other manifestation, perhaps permanently phasing out the use of Russian arms. That could explain why Russia decided to expose Vucic despite years of defending him. However it happened, Russia no longer sees Vucic the same way as before, and it now wants the entire world to know.

SVR reminded everyone that “Russia has come to the aid of the Serbs more than once at the most critical moments of their history. Let us recall, for example, the liberation of Serbia from the yoke of the Ottoman Empire, the prevention of a national catastrophe during the First World War, the fight against the fascist occupiers and their henchmen during the Second World War, the NATO bombing of Belgrade, the Kosovo tragedy.” This reinforces the fact that Russia feels betrayed by Serbia and Vucic in particular.

People-to-people ties still remain strong, yet Vucic might soon crack down on his majority-Russophile population on the false pretext that Russia is plotting his removal. It wouldn’t be surprising if a Western intelligence agency tips him off about a fake plot in order to prompt his predictable response. Whatever ends up happening, and hopefully nothing too dramatic will unfold, it’s long overdue for Russia to finally call Vucic out. The best-case scenario is that he gets the message and stops indirectly arming Ukraine.