«About that, “India Has Imported $168 Billion in Russian Oil Since Start of Ukraine War”, but the over $40 billion a year on average that Russia received from oil sales to India»
The RF does not receive “over $40 billion a year” from India it receives *rupees* that it cannot spend: RF exports to India were worth $66.4 billions and imports $4.8 billion because there is little that indian businesses can supply to RF customers. RF sales of oil and arms to India are largely "charity" (an expensive way to buy influence).
That the RF is supplying oil to India in exchange of freshly minted rupees, that is on credit, is the main reason why “Won’t Punish India For Reducing Its Oil Imports”.
A combination of US, Gulf, and likely soon Venezuelan oil might replace Russia's in India's import portfolio while Russia can only realistically divert exports to China, but that risks becoming way too dependent on it and China might also eventually be coerced by the US' tariff threats to at least keep its imports of Russian oil the same, if not reduce them too.
Ambani is throwing some crumbs to Trump. Is it feasible for India to depend on Venezuela - distance as well as cost. These are empty threats from moronic Americans
I'd expect there to be transport costs, but if the price is at, below, or only just slightly above discounted Russian oil, then I think India will indeed replace Russian oil with Venezuelan under the US' tariff coercion.
I agree. Between the new piracy pressure on the shadow fleet, India bending the knee, and China demanding bigger and bigger discounts for Russian oil, it currently would seem that Trump actually succeeded in cornering Russia. Would love to see your analysis on what Russia can do, if anything, to back out of this corner without compromising its Ukraine demands.
My view is that Russia had a window of opportunity to diplomatically end the conflict through a series of tough compromises last year, chose not to out of the belief that it could achieve more of its goals (whether in full or in part) through military means (which it was believed could facilitate diplomacy), and is now unfortunately in a very difficult situation as regards the rapidly changing world order brought about by Trump's unrestrained use of the US' hegemonic tools.
Russia's "global media ecosystem", which takes its cues from diplomats and publicly financed media (they either reflect their takes or are quite literally briefed by them, sometimes during their trips to Russia), has yet to catch up and realize that. Even so much as suggesting that maybe, just maybe, some setbacks have occurred and not everything is "going according to plan" gets one viciously canceled by top "Non-Russian Pro-Russians" and even defamed as a "spy".
Interesting. So you think there was actually a chance to reach a reasonable peace agreement earlier, that wasn't going to be sabotaged by Ukraine? I fell like even if there was, Ukraine would just wait Trump out and restart provocations, although predicting such things is always tough.
I do wish to see more content that discusses the real state of play in the world rather than propagandistic "We are winning" all the time. But I also realize that for a common citizen, the psychological benefits of such propaganda might outweigh the need for truth. Unfortunately that does put truth seeking analysis such as yourself into niche audiences rather than the mainstream.
Poutine tried to save Russia's sovereignty but the weakness, cowardice and sightedness of Brazil, China and specially India made collapse the BRICS' s 'house of cards.
Russia doesn't win in Ukraine and loose everywhere else. Everywhere.
And you have all the jesters of AMC who are singing about the total defeat of USA. In what world do they live?
Russia is strong. And so is Brics. Just wait for Epstein files to take down Trump. As for Indian media it's CIA sponsored- so don't believe in this false narrative
Russians are master chess layers. They can handle the Asian continent as well. Russia is a nuclear super power and an energy super power. This combination makes them hard to beat.
Grandmaster Russia does not merely play chess; it defines the board, thinking in centuries while others stumble from headline to headline. From the Baltic to the Pacific, it moves across the vast sweep of Eurasia with the patience of winter and the certainty of gravity. Russia stands astride the world, a nuclear titan, an energy colossus, a civilization forged in fire and frost. Russia bends pressure into power and endurance into destiny.
Empires exhaust themselves trying to contain it. History keeps rediscovering that to challenge Russia is to quarrel with time, depth, and distance all at once, expecting them to yield.
I don't think India has reduced oil from Russia. Again I say that donot believe Indian media-including academics tied to the West. It's fake news. A temporary fall may be more due to price issues
India will never ever bow to US pressure and any Indian government which tries to do so will fall. Don't believe Indian media-including academics tied to the West like Chellan
The BRICS wall is collapsing, unfortunately.
«About that, “India Has Imported $168 Billion in Russian Oil Since Start of Ukraine War”, but the over $40 billion a year on average that Russia received from oil sales to India»
The RF does not receive “over $40 billion a year” from India it receives *rupees* that it cannot spend: RF exports to India were worth $66.4 billions and imports $4.8 billion because there is little that indian businesses can supply to RF customers. RF sales of oil and arms to India are largely "charity" (an expensive way to buy influence).
https://economymiddleeast.com/news/over-90-percent-of-russia-india-trade-now-settled-in-roubles-and-rupees/ “Over 90 percent of Russia-India trade now settled in Roubles and Rupees”
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/russia-tackles-accumulation-of-rupees-through-investments-101714911069752.html “Russia has tackled the issue of billions of rupees accumulated in Indian banks through investments in Indian stocks and infrastructure schemes”
That the RF is supplying oil to India in exchange of freshly minted rupees, that is on credit, is the main reason why “Won’t Punish India For Reducing Its Oil Imports”.
You're actually right. I didn't think about that point: India buy oil very cheap and pay in monkey currency.
What source replaces Russian imports? To where will russia divert its exports ?
A combination of US, Gulf, and likely soon Venezuelan oil might replace Russia's in India's import portfolio while Russia can only realistically divert exports to China, but that risks becoming way too dependent on it and China might also eventually be coerced by the US' tariff threats to at least keep its imports of Russian oil the same, if not reduce them too.
Ambani is throwing some crumbs to Trump. Is it feasible for India to depend on Venezuela - distance as well as cost. These are empty threats from moronic Americans
I'd expect there to be transport costs, but if the price is at, below, or only just slightly above discounted Russian oil, then I think India will indeed replace Russian oil with Venezuelan under the US' tariff coercion.
Unlikely in the medium to long term. Assure you that India depends on Russia for fertilizer and weapons. Modi in any case is not around for ever
I agree. Between the new piracy pressure on the shadow fleet, India bending the knee, and China demanding bigger and bigger discounts for Russian oil, it currently would seem that Trump actually succeeded in cornering Russia. Would love to see your analysis on what Russia can do, if anything, to back out of this corner without compromising its Ukraine demands.
My view is that Russia had a window of opportunity to diplomatically end the conflict through a series of tough compromises last year, chose not to out of the belief that it could achieve more of its goals (whether in full or in part) through military means (which it was believed could facilitate diplomacy), and is now unfortunately in a very difficult situation as regards the rapidly changing world order brought about by Trump's unrestrained use of the US' hegemonic tools.
Russia's "global media ecosystem", which takes its cues from diplomats and publicly financed media (they either reflect their takes or are quite literally briefed by them, sometimes during their trips to Russia), has yet to catch up and realize that. Even so much as suggesting that maybe, just maybe, some setbacks have occurred and not everything is "going according to plan" gets one viciously canceled by top "Non-Russian Pro-Russians" and even defamed as a "spy".
Interesting. So you think there was actually a chance to reach a reasonable peace agreement earlier, that wasn't going to be sabotaged by Ukraine? I fell like even if there was, Ukraine would just wait Trump out and restart provocations, although predicting such things is always tough.
I do wish to see more content that discusses the real state of play in the world rather than propagandistic "We are winning" all the time. But I also realize that for a common citizen, the psychological benefits of such propaganda might outweigh the need for truth. Unfortunately that does put truth seeking analysis such as yourself into niche audiences rather than the mainstream.
That's turning to disaster for Russia
Poutine tried to save Russia's sovereignty but the weakness, cowardice and sightedness of Brazil, China and specially India made collapse the BRICS' s 'house of cards.
Russia doesn't win in Ukraine and loose everywhere else. Everywhere.
And you have all the jesters of AMC who are singing about the total defeat of USA. In what world do they live?
Russia is strong. And so is Brics. Just wait for Epstein files to take down Trump. As for Indian media it's CIA sponsored- so don't believe in this false narrative
Putin never punishes betrayal.
Russians are master chess layers. They can handle the Asian continent as well. Russia is a nuclear super power and an energy super power. This combination makes them hard to beat.
Grandmaster Russia does not merely play chess; it defines the board, thinking in centuries while others stumble from headline to headline. From the Baltic to the Pacific, it moves across the vast sweep of Eurasia with the patience of winter and the certainty of gravity. Russia stands astride the world, a nuclear titan, an energy colossus, a civilization forged in fire and frost. Russia bends pressure into power and endurance into destiny.
Empires exhaust themselves trying to contain it. History keeps rediscovering that to challenge Russia is to quarrel with time, depth, and distance all at once, expecting them to yield.
I don't think India has reduced oil from Russia. Again I say that donot believe Indian media-including academics tied to the West. It's fake news. A temporary fall may be more due to price issues
Andrew, If China reduce drastically its purchases of oil to Russia, isn't it a risk that Russia make a deal to with USA?
India will never ever bow to US pressure and any Indian government which tries to do so will fall. Don't believe Indian media-including academics tied to the West like Chellan