Russian-Azerbaijani Tensions Are Quickly Heating Up Over Ukraine
None of this would be happening if the US didn’t squeeze Russia out of the Zangezur Corridor with Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s assistance.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received a call from Zelensky on Sunday in which they condemned “the deliberate airstrikes by Russia on an oil storage facility owned by Azerbaijan’s SOCAR in Ukraine, as well as other Azerbaijani facilities and a gas compressor station transporting Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine.” This follows late July’s agreement for the first-ever export of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine via the Trans-Balkan Pipeline and comes amidst worsening Russian-Azerbaijani tensions.
To simplify the second-mentioned, Russia’s arrest of suspected ethnic Azeri criminals prompted Azerbaijan’s arrest of several Sputnik employees on charges of espionage, which occurred in the shadow of the US’ now-successful ploy to replace Russia’s role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process. What Baku called the Zangezur Corridor, which was supposed to be guarded by Russia per the ceasefire that it mediated in November 2020, is now the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).
This analysis here enumerates five background briefings elaborating on the aforesaid insight and then explains how TRIPP threatens to undermine Russia’s position along its entire southern periphery. It was right around the time that TRIPP was agreed to that Russia struck SOCAR-owned facilities in Ukraine. Although Russia maintains that it only hits targets of military value, which the Kremlin considers Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to be, Azerbaijan might have interpreted this as a political message.
From their perspective, Russia could have signaled its increasing displeasure with Azerbaijan but also possibly demonstrated how vulnerable Azerbaijan’s energy infrastructure would be in the worst-case scenario of their tensions escalating into conflict, whether conventional or unconventional. Aliyev alluded to his adherence to this interpretation by jointly condemning the strike with Zelensky, perhaps emboldened by TRIPP, which is arguably an unprecedented US-Turkish powerplay against Russia.
In what might be meant as his country’s indirect but nonetheless “plausibly deniable” response to Russia’s supposed political message, reputable Azerbaijani media outlet Caliber cited “reliable sources” to report on the same day as their call that Azerbaijan might arm Ukraine if Russian policy doesn’t shift. They added that “It should be noted that the Russian armed forces have begun to consistently strike at Azerbaijan's energy facilities in Ukraine. This situation forces Baku to take countermeasures.”
Accordingly, Russian-Azerbaijani tensions are quickly heating up over Ukraine, but this perceptible (though nevertheless “plausibly deniable”) escalation might not lead to anything more in this direction if the upcoming Putin-Trump Summit successfully freezes or ends the conflict. In that scenario, Azerbaijani energy infrastructure in Ukraine would remain in Russia’s crosshairs while Ukrainian fingers might be placed on the triggers of Azerbaijani arms, but nothing will happen so long as hostilities don’t re-erupt.
In any case, Ukraine is just a theater for de facto proxy warfare between Russia and Azerbaijan (whether the only one or the first of several remains to be seen), whose new tensions are due to TRIPP more than anything else. TRIPP has thus provoked a Russian-Azerbaijani security dilemma that risks destabilizing the region and perhaps beyond if it isn’t soon resolved, but none of this would be happening if the US didn’t squeeze Russia out of the Zangezur Corridor with Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s assistance.
Now that the US war machine's pick for a winner between Ukraine and Russia has failed they need to find another proxy to unwittingly do their dirty work. Enter stage right miniscule but resource rich Azerbaijan followed meekly by hapless Armenia. Meanwhile Turkeye waits in the wings for an opportune moment to foment trouble with the Khazaks and Turkmens while USA grins in expectation. If it was a Hollywood production it would be a hit in USA and a bummer elsewhere.
Interesting and very insightful, as always. But did you consider the possibility that the TRIPP grand show, could be a way to take the initiative (The Great Turania of MI6 boss abd former ambassador in Turkey, Richard Moore) from the hands of the British? Something like what happened with Trump “12 days war” against Iran, that was followed by Trump proclamation of total irreversible victory, and the end of the Iran threat. And thus the obvious beginning of negotiations with Teheran. Apparently the Netanyahu gang did not like that. The British geopoliticians even less. It’s difficult to see how this very serious direct provocation against Russia (prepared for a long time by London and Paris ) could fit with the Alaska efforts.