The precedent set by Russia’s restrained response to Ukraine obtaining the F-16s, which could also be nuclear-equipped, suggests that tensions with the US will remain manageable if Ukraine obtains the Tomahawks too due to the modus vivendi that’s arguably been in place for managing them.
Poutine like to refer to street fight of his youth.
In street fight, what's happening is a bunch of bullies who want to submit a little disparate group of boys living in the town and just revolted softly against the tyranny.
And There, you have the chief of bullies(USA) who stand nose to nose in front of one the guys and push him back softly with his brow in saying " go ahead man, come on, dare hit me". And the guy blink and says nothing. Then the bully wipes his boot on the guy's shoe. Nothing. The other bullies shout "kill this bastard" , and the buddies of the guy, blink and stay quiet. Then the bully spit on guy's face. Nothing. The the bully says " he pussy, I will punch your face". And the guy says " ho, it will possibly damage our relationship but it doesn't matter, I will try to dodge".
Seriously.
Generally, at this point, friends of the guys are disgusted by this submission and think seriously at how to deal the less bad possible with the bullies before going back to plantation.
What is doing Poutine reminds me our pitiful french politicians between 1935 and 1940 who always knuckled under Hitler bullyings.
I had a really great respect for Poutine but I will end in believing that neocons like Bolton and Kagan are right when they affirm that he is a pussy.
Russia is like a frog in a warming water.
I don't know Russia and Russian, I don't know what they can think of these continual dangerous retreats
There is another possibility. Sometimes, the guy bullied is smart and vicious. He play the weak, the man who don't want to fight, the weak...and he strike, ruthlessly.
If anyone knows how to defeat Tomahawk missiles, it is the Russians. Remember when Trump fired Tomahawks at Syria during his first term? Well, some of them didn't go bang and just landed, and the Syrians gave them to the Russians.
Tomahawks are old and seriously overrated, anyway. Kind of like those German Leopard tanks that were going to slice their way to Moscow like a hot knife through butter, remember?
Big Serge on X argues that Russia will absorb any potential hit from Tomahawks and simply take it out on Ukraine. That has been the approach ainde the start of the SMO and nobody everyone in the West is aware of this. It is a much better approach for Russia than clashing directly with the US.
The worst thing a national leader can do is to bluff beyond the capacity what his nation can actually deliver or endure. National leaders make such a judgment based on their evaluations about themselves and about their "opponent". Historically, most political leaders over-estimated themselves and their nations, yet under-estimated their opponents. Putin probably looks chicken or sheepish at many such situations. But the probability for Putin or Russia being caught in a situation where bluffing was called is slim. Appearing strong in the international arena has many advantages, as the US can attest. Being strong has other kinds of advantages.
When are Russia and China finally going to become the leaders of the Third World? When are Russia and China finally realizing that the US/EU Neocon Govts & Elites are incapable of negotiating anything in good faith nor complying with anything.
The Valdai Club, which comprises Russia's top thinkers who advise the government on policy and just hosted Putin during their annual meeting, shared some pretty startling insight in their recent report that prompts a re-evaluation of the special operation:
Those stupid jesters are the true heirs of the big moron Gorbatchev. They will lead Russia back to the Elstine's year and West, after have been frightened like today will not end the jog till Russia be split in 10 and reduced as a good obedient bitch.
Ukraine will not get Tomahawks, because that would mean direct US involvement with operating them. With the conflicts in Wenezuela, Israel and trade war with China, freezing of US government agencies, economic woes etc., Ukraine takes a back seat on the list of Washington priorities. Trump always a ham actor talks tough but does TACO leaving Europe to clean the mess.
From what I understand, the Tomahawk missiles used by the US military are naval based. Does Trump also want to give Ukraine warships so it can fire them? Isn't it all a hoax?
Given that we are ignorant of many facts, one is reduced to making hypotheses.
One hypothesis might be that the tomahawk discussion is meant as a form of psychological intimidation, another rather minute escalation hoping to rattle the Russian leadership to force an error. Putin's claim of a new type of nuclear weapon could've been his response.
Another hypothesis is that the tomahawks discussion aims to anger Russian leadership in the hope they will expand resources committed to Ukraine enabling Americans to more safely turn their attention to Iran. In this regard, it seems possible that the Chinese responded to assist Russia.
(I would add as an aside, that Americans appear to be insufficiently fearful of Iranian, Chinese and Russian cyber attack skills, which are formidible. Iran still has a score to settle, and Sony Corp showed the possible consequences.)
And then there are all the 5D hypotheses concerning how Trump is really a good guy, something more than just an inarticulate big mouth, who is secretly trying to outwit evil neocons. Personally, I find these suggestions hogwash and humiliating to even consider. It's very very difficult to believe Trump is anything more than a useless muppet.
Given we are destined for uncertainty, and in spite of a craving for simple forthrightness, I continue to think Pres Putin's cautious approach is best. Those having more facts may disagree and this should inform us.
Is there a chance Russia will retaliate by giving advanced missles to Iran? That would seem like a splendid deterrent to supplying Ukraine with such weapons.
US will do a first strike off these Russian concessions eventually. Fools.
Imagine you got most nukes and won the arms race yet get beat because an idiot like Putin is in charge. Hope they get him in that decapitation strike and he's not in a bunker and survives to sign surrender agreement.
Perhaps as say Andrew there's an undercover agreement.
Perhaps Poutine is openly nice but Russian warned US by direct channel.
Trump worship bullshit wrestling were wrestler seem to want kill each other with big voice and terribles holds, projections and key but where everything is agreed in locker room.
Usually, in their history, Russians never bluff, they are not good at it.
And if actually Poutine's attack of Ukraine was a bluff, just a bet without other plan if the first failed, it's a disaster.
So, we're in the situation of two adversaries having failed their initial plan and building in hurry new one following events without a directory plan.
I think Putin wants to be fooled. Like Minsk and Minsk-2, or for that matter, Ankara. Even a kitten could see that Minsk was a sham, so Russia signed Minsk-2, then spent eight years trying to get Ukraine and its western guarantors to enforce it. They were laughing their heads off at Russian naivete.
So naturally, Russia was eager to do that again at Ankara, but the West would not even allow them that charade.
The Russian leadership do not want to make war on the West but to be allowed to join it. The rulers of the West of course, are far more ruthless.
Type escalation is accepted - the Russian political-military-economic state has determined it is inconsequential; likely meaning the vast majority of Russian distillation towers are out of range of Tomahawks.
The USA has not won a war in75 years. The war in Ukraine was a western established war. Maybe Ukraine can give the west a victory. Trump spoke to hundreds of generals who know war. I doubt would care to antagonize Russia. You mentioned 2 charachters who are anti Russian , Zelensky a JEW and Graham who is a homosexual. Both types hate Russia. Time for America to listen to the 100's of generals Trump spoke to. At som point in time sanity will prevael. Good newsletter Andrew.
USA has perhaps won no war since 75 years( define "win") but it has reduced numerous countries in pile of ruins sterilised for decades : North Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan, Yemen, Lybia, Ukraine, Syria.
It has also strangled to death numerous others: USSR, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, Sudan, Liban, Venezuela, Serbia.
And with quasi no pain. And with a lot of advantages.
Clausewitz said that war is the continuation of politique".
Since 75 ans, US politicic is very clear for the whole world: " submit or die"
And it worked very good for USA.
Considering the politics purposes, we can say that USA wan all its wars since 75 years.
And it's not few dozens thousands deaths of US guys taken among white trashes, black people and Chicanos that will bother US leaders.
The deal was that the US would continue selling all weapons to Ukraine, but main operations would be taken over by NATO's European members, especially UK, France and Germany.
It does sound like the Tomahawks are perceived by Moscow as a breach of the secret deal reached in Anchorage. But knowing Trump, he will cave to his Neocons and give the tomahawks to Ukraine. The US political Establishment is incapable of complying with any treaty or agreement that is not in line with US World Hegemony and American Exceptionalism.
It's a little shameful.
Poutine like to refer to street fight of his youth.
In street fight, what's happening is a bunch of bullies who want to submit a little disparate group of boys living in the town and just revolted softly against the tyranny.
And There, you have the chief of bullies(USA) who stand nose to nose in front of one the guys and push him back softly with his brow in saying " go ahead man, come on, dare hit me". And the guy blink and says nothing. Then the bully wipes his boot on the guy's shoe. Nothing. The other bullies shout "kill this bastard" , and the buddies of the guy, blink and stay quiet. Then the bully spit on guy's face. Nothing. The the bully says " he pussy, I will punch your face". And the guy says " ho, it will possibly damage our relationship but it doesn't matter, I will try to dodge".
Seriously.
Generally, at this point, friends of the guys are disgusted by this submission and think seriously at how to deal the less bad possible with the bullies before going back to plantation.
What is doing Poutine reminds me our pitiful french politicians between 1935 and 1940 who always knuckled under Hitler bullyings.
I had a really great respect for Poutine but I will end in believing that neocons like Bolton and Kagan are right when they affirm that he is a pussy.
Russia is like a frog in a warming water.
I don't know Russia and Russian, I don't know what they can think of these continual dangerous retreats
There is another possibility. Sometimes, the guy bullied is smart and vicious. He play the weak, the man who don't want to fight, the weak...and he strike, ruthlessly.
It's not usual but it happens.
If anyone knows how to defeat Tomahawk missiles, it is the Russians. Remember when Trump fired Tomahawks at Syria during his first term? Well, some of them didn't go bang and just landed, and the Syrians gave them to the Russians.
Tomahawks are old and seriously overrated, anyway. Kind of like those German Leopard tanks that were going to slice their way to Moscow like a hot knife through butter, remember?
Big Serge on X argues that Russia will absorb any potential hit from Tomahawks and simply take it out on Ukraine. That has been the approach ainde the start of the SMO and nobody everyone in the West is aware of this. It is a much better approach for Russia than clashing directly with the US.
The Western leaders %
The worst thing a national leader can do is to bluff beyond the capacity what his nation can actually deliver or endure. National leaders make such a judgment based on their evaluations about themselves and about their "opponent". Historically, most political leaders over-estimated themselves and their nations, yet under-estimated their opponents. Putin probably looks chicken or sheepish at many such situations. But the probability for Putin or Russia being caught in a situation where bluffing was called is slim. Appearing strong in the international arena has many advantages, as the US can attest. Being strong has other kinds of advantages.
Looking strong allow you to have not to prove you are strong.
Being strong allow you to survive an harsh attack and even win at the end of the bal but the price to pay is always terrible.
Being strong in looking weak or unready make you loose your allies.
When are Russia and China finally going to become the leaders of the Third World? When are Russia and China finally realizing that the US/EU Neocon Govts & Elites are incapable of negotiating anything in good faith nor complying with anything.
The Valdai Club, which comprises Russia's top thinkers who advise the government on policy and just hosted Putin during their annual meeting, shared some pretty startling insight in their recent report that prompts a re-evaluation of the special operation:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/re-evaluating-the-special-operation
Those stupid jesters are the true heirs of the big moron Gorbatchev. They will lead Russia back to the Elstine's year and West, after have been frightened like today will not end the jog till Russia be split in 10 and reduced as a good obedient bitch.
Ukraine will not get Tomahawks, because that would mean direct US involvement with operating them. With the conflicts in Wenezuela, Israel and trade war with China, freezing of US government agencies, economic woes etc., Ukraine takes a back seat on the list of Washington priorities. Trump always a ham actor talks tough but does TACO leaving Europe to clean the mess.
Thanks for your great work!
We've shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
From what I understand, the Tomahawk missiles used by the US military are naval based. Does Trump also want to give Ukraine warships so it can fire them? Isn't it all a hoax?
Given that we are ignorant of many facts, one is reduced to making hypotheses.
One hypothesis might be that the tomahawk discussion is meant as a form of psychological intimidation, another rather minute escalation hoping to rattle the Russian leadership to force an error. Putin's claim of a new type of nuclear weapon could've been his response.
Another hypothesis is that the tomahawks discussion aims to anger Russian leadership in the hope they will expand resources committed to Ukraine enabling Americans to more safely turn their attention to Iran. In this regard, it seems possible that the Chinese responded to assist Russia.
(I would add as an aside, that Americans appear to be insufficiently fearful of Iranian, Chinese and Russian cyber attack skills, which are formidible. Iran still has a score to settle, and Sony Corp showed the possible consequences.)
And then there are all the 5D hypotheses concerning how Trump is really a good guy, something more than just an inarticulate big mouth, who is secretly trying to outwit evil neocons. Personally, I find these suggestions hogwash and humiliating to even consider. It's very very difficult to believe Trump is anything more than a useless muppet.
Given we are destined for uncertainty, and in spite of a craving for simple forthrightness, I continue to think Pres Putin's cautious approach is best. Those having more facts may disagree and this should inform us.
Is there a chance Russia will retaliate by giving advanced missles to Iran? That would seem like a splendid deterrent to supplying Ukraine with such weapons.
US will do a first strike off these Russian concessions eventually. Fools.
Imagine you got most nukes and won the arms race yet get beat because an idiot like Putin is in charge. Hope they get him in that decapitation strike and he's not in a bunker and survives to sign surrender agreement.
Tl;dr another Russian red line ignored.
Almost, not yet.
At time, it's just words
There is what we see and what we don't.
Perhaps as say Andrew there's an undercover agreement.
Perhaps Poutine is openly nice but Russian warned US by direct channel.
Trump worship bullshit wrestling were wrestler seem to want kill each other with big voice and terribles holds, projections and key but where everything is agreed in locker room.
Show for morons and fools.
We keep hearing that, even as it becomes ever more obvious that there is no master plan, no eleven dimensional chess or whatever at play here.
What we see is what we get.
It's alas very likely.
Usually, in their history, Russians never bluff, they are not good at it.
And if actually Poutine's attack of Ukraine was a bluff, just a bet without other plan if the first failed, it's a disaster.
So, we're in the situation of two adversaries having failed their initial plan and building in hurry new one following events without a directory plan.
This war has been a series of miscalculations by Russia, along with total bafflement when their enemies do not behave as predicted.
I think that Trump is fooling Poutine and Xi.
And if it's true, that mean that Poutine and Xi or their country are in terrible situation of weakness.
It's like if Trump said: " ok buddies, let me crush all your friend and I swear I'll leave you alone".
It would be incredible that Poutine or Xi could be so fool.
Or they have no way to do otherwise
I think Putin wants to be fooled. Like Minsk and Minsk-2, or for that matter, Ankara. Even a kitten could see that Minsk was a sham, so Russia signed Minsk-2, then spent eight years trying to get Ukraine and its western guarantors to enforce it. They were laughing their heads off at Russian naivete.
So naturally, Russia was eager to do that again at Ankara, but the West would not even allow them that charade.
The Russian leadership do not want to make war on the West but to be allowed to join it. The rulers of the West of course, are far more ruthless.
Dimitri Peskov 😂 liberal end KGB haat moor Russian then Washington. Is al theater 🎭 in this fucking world !!!!
Type escalation is accepted - the Russian political-military-economic state has determined it is inconsequential; likely meaning the vast majority of Russian distillation towers are out of range of Tomahawks.
The USA has not won a war in75 years. The war in Ukraine was a western established war. Maybe Ukraine can give the west a victory. Trump spoke to hundreds of generals who know war. I doubt would care to antagonize Russia. You mentioned 2 charachters who are anti Russian , Zelensky a JEW and Graham who is a homosexual. Both types hate Russia. Time for America to listen to the 100's of generals Trump spoke to. At som point in time sanity will prevael. Good newsletter Andrew.
USA has perhaps won no war since 75 years( define "win") but it has reduced numerous countries in pile of ruins sterilised for decades : North Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan, Yemen, Lybia, Ukraine, Syria.
It has also strangled to death numerous others: USSR, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, Sudan, Liban, Venezuela, Serbia.
And with quasi no pain. And with a lot of advantages.
Clausewitz said that war is the continuation of politique".
Since 75 ans, US politicic is very clear for the whole world: " submit or die"
And it worked very good for USA.
Considering the politics purposes, we can say that USA wan all its wars since 75 years.
And it's not few dozens thousands deaths of US guys taken among white trashes, black people and Chicanos that will bother US leaders.
The deal was that the US would continue selling all weapons to Ukraine, but main operations would be taken over by NATO's European members, especially UK, France and Germany.
It does sound like the Tomahawks are perceived by Moscow as a breach of the secret deal reached in Anchorage. But knowing Trump, he will cave to his Neocons and give the tomahawks to Ukraine. The US political Establishment is incapable of complying with any treaty or agreement that is not in line with US World Hegemony and American Exceptionalism.