Russia’s Burevestnik Missile Test Was Actually A De-Escalation Measure

Its real purpose is to get the US to reconsider its impending escalations against Russia by reminding it of the strategic costs that this could entail.

Trump slammed Russia’s test of its unlimited-range nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile by describing it as inappropriate and urging Putin to end the Ukrainian Conflict instead. The aforesaid test follows Putin’s warning that Trump’s potential transfer of longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine would provoke a “downright staggering” response from Russia. That in turn came right after a supposedly planned test of Russia’s nuclear triad coinciding with Trump canceling their Budapest Summit.

The sequence of events that Russia initiated amidst the breakdown of talks with the US, for which Zelensky claimed credit while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested that joint EU-Ukrainian pressure was responsible, is understandable if analyzed in context. To begin with, there hasn’t yet been any tangible progress on extending the New START upon its expiry in February, which risks further worsening Russian-US tensions since it’s the last remaining strategic arms control pact between them.

In connection with that, Trump remains committed to developing what he calls the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, which his advisors arguably believe would give the US a strategic edge over Russia by enabling it to intercept more second strikes in the scenario of a nuclear war. This imperative explains why Bush Jr. pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001 shortly after 9/11 and all subsequent presidents retained his policy course of developing this infrastructure at home and abroad.

Be that as it may, RT published a compelling piece about “Why America’s ‘Golden Dome’ may be powerless against Russia’s doomsday missile”, explaining that this cutting-edge weapon nullifies strategic purpose of this program vis-à-vis the strategic edge that the US envisages obtaining over Russia. If the New START isn’t extended and subsequently modernized with a new agreement, then Russia could produce and deploy the Burevestnik without restrictions, thus leaving the US more vulnerable than ever.

As such, its test can be interpreted as a dual signal from Russia to the US for encouraging Trump to extend the New START and then focus on modernizing it but also expressing nonchalance at the scenario of him rebuffing Putin’s proposal, thus giving the prerogative to him over what’ll come next. Likewise, the related context of Trump’s potential transfer of Tomahawks to Ukraine enables one to interpret this test as Putin hinting at what might follow, perhaps even the first-ever battlefield use of the Burevestnik.

Although it’s not a nuclear weapon per se, Western media speculated that it might give off radioactive exhaust, so Putin might not use it so as to avoid provoking the West. Just testing it, however, might be meant to scare the US into reconsidering any escalations in case it’s then used in battle. If the US still escalates, then Russia might retaliate against Ukraine with Oreshniks, not Burevestniks. In any case, the timing of this test curiously coincides with impending US escalations, thus making it a de-escalation measure.

If the US still rejects Putin’s proposal to extend the New START and/or transfers Tomahawks to Ukraine, then it’ll now know the costs that this would entail. They might even expand beyond the ambit of Russian-US relations to encompass Sino-US ones too if Russia considers transferring its Burevestnik technology to China in exchange for more economic aid throughout the special operation. That would in turn significantly raise the costs to US interests and might finally get Trump to cut a fair deal with Putin.