Russia’s Military-Industrial Chief Is Right: The US’ S-400 Waiver To India Is A Sign Of Weakness

Although State Department spokesman Ned Price reaffirmed his declining unipolar hegemon’s continued commitment to meddle in India’s foreign policy just last week, it’s clearly incapable of imposing its zero-sum will onto that rising multipolar Great Power.

Dmitry Shugaev, head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC), recently described the US’ impending S-400 sanctions waiver to India as a sign of “weakness”. In his words, “earlier the American side regarded the contract concluded between Russia and India for the supply of S-400s as a violation of sanctions against Russian weapons. What caused the change in the position of the American side? I don't know, but most likely, the reason is their weakness.” This is an accurate depiction of the changes brought about by the global systemic transition to multipolarity that accelerated after the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict began half a year ago.

Although State Department spokesman Ned Price reaffirmed his declining unipolar hegemon’s continued commitment to meddle in India’s foreign policy just last week, it’s clearly incapable of imposing its zero-sum will onto that rising multipolar Great Power. That’s not wishful thinking either but a reflection of reality as evidenced by the impending S-400 sanctions waiver being pushed by one of its policymaking factions in an effort to reverse the worsening of bilateral relations that began six months ago when the US started pressuring India to condemn and sanction Russia. India proudly rebuffed all this meddling, however, and actually doubled down on its Russian policy.

This observation confirms the credibility of Shugaev’s views related to America’s newfound weakness. It can no longer force all others, especially those in the Global South like India, to comply with its demands like it used to during the brief climax of its so-called “unipolar moment” in the 1990s. Instead, it’s the US that’s now compelled by rapidly changing global systemic circumstances to flexibly adapt its policies to others’ demands, which in this context refers to the innuendo by Indian officials that bilateral relations would be irreparably worsened if Washington imposed sanctions on Delhi for defending the integrity of its objective national security interests by purchasing state-of-the-art air defenses from Moscow.

The tables have therefore turned insofar as rising multipolar Great Powers across the Global South like India are now capable of influencing the declining unipolar hegemon’s foreign policy, even if only to an extent and of course imperfectly. This new strategic dynamic is unprecedented in modern history, but India proved to be the pioneer in this respect and is therefore expected to continue leading the way for others to follow. They might not succeed where it has or even to the same degree, but there’s no doubt that they’re inspired by the example that it set, which will reverberate throughout the international community and thus further complicate the US’ zero-sum plans.