Russia’s Reported Drone Sale To Pakistan Aims To Bolster Its Anti-Terrorist ISR Capabilities
This drone deal is admittedly surprising since few could have predicted that Russia either wouldn’t lend credence to reports of Pakistani arms sales to Ukraine or would still bolster its anti-terrorist ISR capabilities in spite of them if they were believed.
Sputnik India cited unnamed media reports on Tuesday to tweet about Pakistan’s purchase of Russia’s Supercam S350 drones, which The Eurasian Times suggested was announced by their manufacturer at this week’s Army-2024 International Military-Technical Forum outside of Moscow. The latter’s article also referenced Indian intelligence agencies’ claim from three years ago that Pakistan had already been using that company’s Supercam S250 drones to spy on India so there’s a precedent for this latest deal.
These reports were followed the day after by President Putin describing Russian-Pakistani anti-terrorist cooperation as beneficial in his congratulatory message to that country’s leadership on their 78th anniversary of independence. They’ve been carrying out annual joint anti-terrorist exercises since 2016 and exchange intelligence about related Afghan-emanating threats like those from ISIS-K. This suggests that the latest deal is meant to build upon that aspect of existing Russian policy.
The surge in “Pakistani Taliban” (TTP) and separatist Baloch terrorist threats inside of Pakistan since April 2022’s US-backed post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan has greatly imperiled regional stability. Russia’s Supercam S350 drones could tremendously improve Pakistan’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities by helping detect these terrorists and their hideouts, however, therefore facilitating anti-terrorist operations that could then reduce the aforesaid threats.
Their manufacturer’s website mentions that these systems can be outfitted with various sensor payloads, but they’re unable to carry weapons, thus meaning that they can’t be threaten Russia’s decades-long strategic partners in India with whom Pakistan has been embroiled in a fierce rivalry. This fact is important to remember since India is very sensitive about Russian-Pakistani military cooperation regardless of the form that it takes so some observers from there might be displeased with this deal.
It was explained last month why “Russia Won’t Meaningfully Enhance Military-Technical Cooperation With Pakistan”, namely because there’s no price that Pakistan could pay to convince Russia to do anything that would risk ruining its strategic ties with India by threatening the latter’s national security. The improvement of Pakistani ISR capabilities for anti-terrorist purposes, even if such systems are sometimes used to monitor the Line of Control (LOC), doesn’t threaten India though.
Nevertheless, this deal is still controversial for other reasons, particularly because The Intercept reported in September 2023 that Pakistan sold shells to Ukraine as part of a quid pro quo with the US for an IMF bailout. Russia either didn’t lend credence to that report and others or it believed – whether naively or not, rightly or wrong, depending on one’s perspective – that the “greater good” of improving Pakistan’s anti-terrorist ISR capabilities outweighs that and thus justifies selling state-of-the-art drones to it.
Whatever its policymakers’ thought process might have been, there’s also the risk that it could ultimately backfire if India alleges that potential future terrorist attacks in its union territory of Jammu & Kashmir were aided to some degree by Pakistan’s use of the Supercam S350 drones. For instance, India might obtain evidence that these systems helped Pakistan detect blind spots along the LOC through which the suspects infiltrated, which could then lead to heavy pressure on Russia to cut off these sales.
Precautionary measures to prevent that could include geofencing the Supercam S350s for use only along the border with Afghanistan, incorporating these terms in their contract, and possibly also allowing Russia the right to remotely monitor these drones’ flight in real time for the duration of their life. If these are undertaken yet India proves that these systems were still misused by Pakistan in the explained scenario, then Russia would have grounds for terminating their deal and ruling out future cooperation.
Altogether, this drone deal is admittedly surprising since few could have predicted that Russia either wouldn’t lend credence to the previously cited reports of Pakistani arms sales to Ukraine or would still bolster its anti-terrorist ISR capabilities in spite of them if they were believed, yet that’s what happened. In any case, the intent is to help Pakistan defend itself from terrorist threats, not gain edge over India along the LOC. The drones can’t carry arms and therefore don’t threaten India’s national security.
Mr Putin is stepping up as a global leader and seems to be acting to help heal rifts that have been created by previous so-called global leaders. But one must wonder if it is possible for Russia to build the type of administrative infrastructure that can/will survive him. He seems to be uniquely suited to his new role but, at the same time, in these trying times must also be feeling the weight of his office. Regardless, it's nice to see a leader who acts responsibly and more like an adult than the children running the west.
Any analysis of Pakistan has to take into account the fact that roughly 20% of the population is Pashtun, an ethnically Persian minority with their own language and culture who are sympathetic to the Afghan people, who themselves are about 80% Pashtun.
Owing to the return of the Taliban, the Pashtun population of Pakistan has increased due to people fleeing that situation. Pakistan has recently taken steps to evict some of them, and no doubt some can return safely, but it's definitely strained relations with the govt. in that area.
A bit of history is in order here:
https://www.britannica.com/event/Durand-Line
Which is to say Britain did the same thing as elsewhere when defining the border - drew the line directly across an ethnic population, similar to what was done in the Punjab, ensuring a source of perpetual discontent - the old divide and rule concept.
The main question then, given this background: is Pakistan really concerned about "terrorists" along their frontier, or is this just the cover story for their suppression of a Pashtun independence movement, similar to the Khalistan movement in the Punjab? The Taliban have stated that they're not supporting any activity inside Pakistan, and I'd tend to trust them over the Pakistan govt. That said, it's a very porous border, so how much control either side can exercise is an open question.
I have a Pashtun friend whose family lives near the border on the Pak side. You don't go anywhere without an AK, and the roof of their compound was armed with a 50 cal. machine gun, all to discourage any Talibani who attempted to enter their tribal area, but I don't know if that's still the case. That was 20 years ago and we've since lost touch. I also had a friend who was a colonel in the Pak army, ironically stationed in the former British base in Rawalpindi where my grandfather served in the British army when it was part of India, and where my mother lived as a child. I also had a romantic interest in a beautiful Afghani woman who under different circumstances I would have offered to marry, but alas...
All this goes to say that I take an interest in the region and tend to favour the Pashtun people, who ironically mostly support the Taliban, as they've brought peace to the nation. Of course if Pak ISI with US support hadn't involved themselves in the Soviet effort to support the socialist govt of Afghanistan back in 1979, things could have worked out much differently. Afghani women would be going to university and would probably be in government as well by this point. That's the part that's missed in all these western narratives about that war. The USSR was supporting a government that aimed to unite the country along socialist lines. So in that instance the real terrorists were Pak ISI and their US sponsors. That's where it all started, and Islamic extremism in all its manifestations can be traced back to that source.
This is the vision of Afghanistan that could have come true long ago if not for western interference. I love the Afghan people and wish them the best. You won't find more friendly hospitable people on the face of this earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W_qYF9fcZo