Russia can’t afford to discredit itself abroad, nor can Putin’s ruling United Russia party afford to discredit itself at home four months before the next polls, by threatening overwhelming retaliation against Ukraine if it attacks Moscow’s Victory Day parade only to symbolically retaliate or do nothing at all.
I pretty much agree, Andrew. The hardliners in the Kremlin, Military, and Duma, including Medvedev are all arguing the same. If things continue the way they are, the next president of Russia will be a hardliner, perhaps a Medvedev 2.0 as he has been highly visible and vocal. His long, indepth article in RT today makes this argument. https://www.rt.com/news/639537-germanys-new-militarization-revanchism/
@Andere K just lied as usual. It won’t “retaliatory”, nor will it be “massive”. How we know it? Because Russia has been bombing cities of Ukraine nonstop with no excuse and to the max capacity Russia has had. Always — especially since when Trump came to power.
But Putin to show up to the May 9 parade. If he doesn't, everyone will see that he can't adhere even to the most fundamental mythology of the a Russian imperialism showed off on May 9. That’s why Moscow uses all means in their possession to prevent anything bombing of Moscow then — from his fake “ceasefire” to terrorisms and Donald Trump.
By the way, Kyiv has already declared a ceasefire since 6 May 2026, but Moscow immediately violated it by bombing bus stops and apartment buildings in Ukraine killing 30 civilians and is continuing bombing Ukraine.
Thanks to Trump who refused to stop Putin altogether.
Yes, I am fully aware of Medvedev 1.0, but my thinking is that he has had an epiphany given everything that has transpired since he left office. Surely he would have been isolated and dismissed if Putin or others behind the scenes believed he wasn't sincere.
"Russia can’t afford to discredit itself abroad, nor can Putin’s ruling United Russia party afford to discredit itself at home four months before the next polls ..."
That first ship sailed years ago; the second more recently - but that doesn't matter. So, all good.
I disagree that liberals are a fringe portion of the population. They just don't feel safe expressing their opinions and stay quiet. There's more of them than there are communists, for sure, and probably as many of them as there are hard-core nationalists. I'd guess the liberals are a third of the population.
I'm not in that camp - just that many, many friends I had before the SMO started (where we never discussed politics or related issues) have slowly revealed to me where they really stood (generally as they distanced themselves from me, to my regret). I've been constantly surprised by it. You're just not seeing it from your perspective. (I'm not a liberal, probably more towards nationalism generally).
Yes. Credibility is on the line, which the West hopes will force Putin to extreme measures so that they can say "You see how dangerous those Russians are? We were right to give Ukriane 90 billion. We must rearm, and blockade the Baltic and get involved in the Caucasus etc. etc. So there will almost certainly be a provocation and Russia will try and respond in a way that frightens western governments but does not encourage adverse consequences. They have had a long time to think about the problem. Let's hope they come up with the right balance of terror and restraint. Killing Zelensky is not the answer; he is too useful alive, slowly discrediting himself and his gang.
The "retaliation" has already been announced. Similar to the "Iranian" attacks on UAE, Russia can now demolish Kiev on very little provocation, or no provocation at all. "Turned out to be a flick of geese. Oh, well, whatever. Hope the hardlinerscare happy now."
Curious if anyone else sees a glimmer of hope in Freymann's Foreign Affairs piece, which might be interpreted to say that China has potential moves the US may not have anticipated (Ie, forcing the US to escalate over Taiwan). I found the reasoning on this point unpersuasive.
Is there any possibility he is making a subtle case to the US FP community that the US should stand down in its aggressive stance toward the rest of the world? Does this article affect the upcoming meeting betw Xi and Trump?
Is bl- bl- bla . Is end 100% agenda 2021 this al theater for massa!!!!! Bat we go direction technocratic boljsevik Zionist dictatorship in this fucking fake world . If you agreed of not . I don’t trust nobody sinds corona is for my trust in dis fucking world end political elite finally done.
I pretty much agree, Andrew. The hardliners in the Kremlin, Military, and Duma, including Medvedev are all arguing the same. If things continue the way they are, the next president of Russia will be a hardliner, perhaps a Medvedev 2.0 as he has been highly visible and vocal. His long, indepth article in RT today makes this argument. https://www.rt.com/news/639537-germanys-new-militarization-revanchism/
A Medvedev 2.0 who was a Medvedev 1.0 ultra libéral and occidentalist can become a Trump 2.0 who betrayed absolutely every promesses and commitments.
@Andere K just lied as usual. It won’t “retaliatory”, nor will it be “massive”. How we know it? Because Russia has been bombing cities of Ukraine nonstop with no excuse and to the max capacity Russia has had. Always — especially since when Trump came to power.
But Putin to show up to the May 9 parade. If he doesn't, everyone will see that he can't adhere even to the most fundamental mythology of the a Russian imperialism showed off on May 9. That’s why Moscow uses all means in their possession to prevent anything bombing of Moscow then — from his fake “ceasefire” to terrorisms and Donald Trump.
By the way, Kyiv has already declared a ceasefire since 6 May 2026, but Moscow immediately violated it by bombing bus stops and apartment buildings in Ukraine killing 30 civilians and is continuing bombing Ukraine.
Thanks to Trump who refused to stop Putin altogether.
And it’s Kyiv, not Kiev.
Andrew is coping preemptively.
Medvedev 2.0 is my choice and he won't be Medvedev 1.0. He can't be.
Yes, I am fully aware of Medvedev 1.0, but my thinking is that he has had an epiphany given everything that has transpired since he left office. Surely he would have been isolated and dismissed if Putin or others behind the scenes believed he wasn't sincere.
Dmitry Medvedev translated into English is Lindsey Graham. Hmmmmm.
"Russia can’t afford to discredit itself abroad, nor can Putin’s ruling United Russia party afford to discredit itself at home four months before the next polls ..."
That first ship sailed years ago; the second more recently - but that doesn't matter. So, all good.
Well, well. That's funny. Western media keep drumming into us that the opposition in Russia consists of Westernizing liberals. Have I been lied to?
Yes, the opposition is communist and nationalist, with liberals only representing a non-systemic (aka fringe) portion of the population.
I disagree that liberals are a fringe portion of the population. They just don't feel safe expressing their opinions and stay quiet. There's more of them than there are communists, for sure, and probably as many of them as there are hard-core nationalists. I'd guess the liberals are a third of the population.
I'm not in that camp - just that many, many friends I had before the SMO started (where we never discussed politics or related issues) have slowly revealed to me where they really stood (generally as they distanced themselves from me, to my regret). I've been constantly surprised by it. You're just not seeing it from your perspective. (I'm not a liberal, probably more towards nationalism generally).
Как обычно Андрюша-пидрас (@AndrewKorybko) соврал.
Yes. Credibility is on the line, which the West hopes will force Putin to extreme measures so that they can say "You see how dangerous those Russians are? We were right to give Ukriane 90 billion. We must rearm, and blockade the Baltic and get involved in the Caucasus etc. etc. So there will almost certainly be a provocation and Russia will try and respond in a way that frightens western governments but does not encourage adverse consequences. They have had a long time to think about the problem. Let's hope they come up with the right balance of terror and restraint. Killing Zelensky is not the answer; he is too useful alive, slowly discrediting himself and his gang.
Yes, correct, they should not make the Green Drug-addict a martyr. He will dismantle the whole "ukrainian" state in the end.
Thanks for your great work Andrew!
We've restacked and shared this link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
The "retaliation" has already been announced. Similar to the "Iranian" attacks on UAE, Russia can now demolish Kiev on very little provocation, or no provocation at all. "Turned out to be a flick of geese. Oh, well, whatever. Hope the hardlinerscare happy now."
*flock
Curious if anyone else sees a glimmer of hope in Freymann's Foreign Affairs piece, which might be interpreted to say that China has potential moves the US may not have anticipated (Ie, forcing the US to escalate over Taiwan). I found the reasoning on this point unpersuasive.
Is there any possibility he is making a subtle case to the US FP community that the US should stand down in its aggressive stance toward the rest of the world? Does this article affect the upcoming meeting betw Xi and Trump?
Is bl- bl- bla . Is end 100% agenda 2021 this al theater for massa!!!!! Bat we go direction technocratic boljsevik Zionist dictatorship in this fucking fake world . If you agreed of not . I don’t trust nobody sinds corona is for my trust in dis fucking world end political elite finally done.
What about Kadyrov, he might get a rise out of the elite's?
And the Ukrainian leadership could not care less.
It’s such a privilege to pay $4.50/gallon for gasoline. In the words of the great American Lindsey Graham—6947. 🦅 🇺🇸 #MAGA!
Sure.