Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US
It probably won’t ever muster up the political will to use them, however, but the possibility always remains.
Trump recently surprised the Saudis by demanding that they recognize Israel as the precondition for the US implementing their newly signed nuclear energy deal, which wasn’t part of the agreement. This follows him humiliating Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman earlier in the spring by claiming that he’d been “kissing my ass” for rejuvenating the US economy. His mistreatment of the Kingdom and its de facto leader is unexpected since the US relies on them in the following five ways:
----------
1. Indirectly Projecting US Influence Across The Ummah
Saudi Arabia wields tremendous influence across the international Muslim community, or Ummah, due to its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. It’s also been a rock-solid American ally since the end of World War II. By almost always aligning with the US’ foreign policy goals, Saudi Arabia indirectly projects its influence across the Ummah, in some cases even more effectively than the US itself since it’s a fellow Muslim country that many Muslim governments and societies alike look to for guidance.
2. Investing Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars Into The US
Saudi Arabia is globally known for its wealth, which it once again reminded everyone of when it pledged to invest a whopping $600 billion into the US during Trump’s trip to the Kingdom in May 2025. Few countries are capable of doing that. Even more importantly, the previously hyperlinked readout from the White House notes that at least $100 billion will go into the American tech industry, thus helping it to compete with China. The strategic significance of such Saudi investments into the US can’t be overstated.
3. Purchasing Billions Of Dollars Of American Arms
Building upon the above, nearly $142 billion of the $600 billion that Saudi Arabia agreed to invest into the US will go to the military-industrial complex, which is an astronomical amount. To put Saudi Arabia’s purchase of American arms into perspective, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest report noted that Saudi Arabia was the US’ largest client and the third-largest importer in the world from 2021-2025. This immensely benefits the American military-industrial complex.
4. Serving As The Core Of The “Islamic NATO”
One of this year’s trends that began to materialize late last year is the gradual formation of what’s been called the “Islamic NATO”, which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkiye. They’re all either NATO members like Turkiye or “Major Non-NATO Allies” like the rest. Whether the “Islamic NATO” is ever formalized or just remains a consultative platform, it’s still expected to serve as the means of advancing American military-security interests across the Ummah as the US “Leads From Behind”.
5. Preventing The Rise Of The “Petroyuan”
One of the pillars of American hegemony is the petrodollar, which Saudi Arabia helped the US institutionalize, and its continued participation in this system prevents the rise of the hypothetical “petroyuan” that many members of the Alt-Media Community have speculated about for years. So long as Saudi Arabia remains committed to the petrodollar, the “petroyuan” will remain a thought exercise, thus indefinitely preserving what’s arguably one of the most important pillars of American hegemony.
----------
These five ways in which the US relies on Saudi Arabia provide the Kingdom with leverage if it ever musters up the political will to wield these advantages. For example, it could stop indirectly projecting US influence across the Ummah, radically reduce its investments in the US economy and its purchase of US arms, refuse to allow the “Islamic NATO” to become the US’ proxy, and/or replace the petrodollar with the “petroyuan”. It probably won’t do any of this, however, but the possibility always remains.
Thanks, Andrew,
for framing these recollections as an assessment of the status quo between two players—both of whom must unfortunately be considered utterly unreliable and prone to ruthless power politics. That said, the Saudi political model—fueled by vast wealth and requiring no significant social spending—has no need for war to sustain itself.
The fact that American weapons stockpiles would become largely worthless in the event of an escalation contrary to US interests—simply because the software lacks the necessary authorization—is a single point that, for me, directly negates at least two of the points you listed, and creates a cascading effect that invalidates the rest.
Consequently, I view the Arab states' courting of the US as a major victory for the US in maintaining its hegemony.
It remains a mystery to me why none of these countries seem to grasp a simple fact:
Weapons produced in the West—even when exported—ultimately serve only one master: the USA.
The West is the worst possible supplier, and by far the most expensive one, too.
The question that arises for me regarding this "Arab NATO" concerns the role of Pakistan, which has skillfully positioned itself between the competing interests of China and the US. After all, Pakistan purchases a staggering 60%—or more—of all Chinese arms exports.
I believe this could be a decisive factor regarding the "Islamic NATO" (which, so far, is merely another vehicle for arms exports).
US weapons fighting against US weapons has always been in the US interest. However, if geopolitics brings a player into the mix against whom simply switching off weapon systems won't work, things get a lot more volatile. And the moment there is a shift toward the "petroyuan," the risk of immediate war would skyrocket—because, as history has shown time and again, the US tends to start bombing indiscriminately.
I think the complex situation between the US and the Saudis—which you summarized so well—must be viewed within the broader context of Pakistan, the quintessential "geopolitically dual state." The assessment regarding Saudi Arabia holds true as long as Pakistan continues to act as a stabilizer, as it currently does. However, should the US lash out because Pakistan is becoming an unyielding hub for China, Pakistan could just as easily find itself at the center of a negative dynamic—in other words, in the US crosshairs.
Since the ousting of Musharraf—a type of event that rarely ends well in other regions—Pakistan has been the positive surprise of the last 15 years.
And let us not forget: Pakistan is a nuclear power.
If KSA tried to use its leverage against the U.S., the U.S. would simply steal of all its dollar holdings, and if necessary, take over the country and steal its oil.