September 2025 Was The Most Eventful Month For Poland Since The End Of Communism

The common denominator between these developments is the progress being made on reviving Poland’s long-lost status as a Great Power as proven by its increasingly central role in the region.

Poland is no stranger to dramatic developments, which includes being the scene where World War II in Europe officially began and the one where the Iron Curtain finally started to crumble, both in the last century. September 2025 wasn’t anywhere near as eventful as the ones in which those examples occurred, but it was certainly the most eventful since the end of communism. What follows is a list of everything that coincidentally transpired during President Karol Nawrocki’s first full month in office:

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Trump Committed To Keeping US Troops In Poland & Suggested Sending More

Nawrocki’s first foreign trip was to the US, Poland’s most important ally, to meet with Trump. His American counterpart not only committed to keeping US troops in Poland amidst rumors earlier this year that he was considering reducing them but even said “we’ll put more there if they want.” This signals the US’ appreciation of the role that Poland can play in containing Russia in Europe through the “Three Seas Initiative” that it leads after the Ukrainian Conflict ends and the US “Pivots (back) to (East) Asia”.

Poland’s Former President Revealed That Zelensky Tried To Spark A Polish-Russian War

Nawrocki’s predecessor Andrzej Duda belatedly admitted that Zelensky’s lies about Russian responsibility for November 2022’s Przewodow incident, which was later revealed to have been a Ukrainian air defense missile that crossed into Poland and killed two Poles, were meant to spark another Polish-Russian War. He eschewed any negative judgement of his counterpart, but the significance is that he revealed that Zelensky employed narrative subterfuge in the past to this end, thus raising suspicions of his motives.

Nawrocki Declared Polish Responsibility For The Entirety Of Central Europe

Building upon the last point, Nawrocki declared in an interview with Lithuanian media during his trip there after visiting the US, Italy, and the Vatican that “We as Poles, and I as the President of Poland, are aware that we are responsible for the entire region of Central Europe, including the Baltic States and Lithuania.” His words confirm that Poland envisages restoring its long-lost status as a Great Power through the abovementioned means and that its pursuit of this goal will shape the region’s future.

He Also Reaffirmed His Opposition To Deploying Polish Troops To Ukraine

After Lithuania, Nawrocki then flew to Finland, where he reaffirmed his opposition to deploying Polish troops to Ukraine. This aligns with the pledge that he signed ahead of the second round of elections earlier this year. His visit to Finland was also important in its own right since the “EU Defense Line”, which refers to the “Baltic Defense Line” and Poland’s “East Shield”, could prospectively expand to that new NATO member for creating a new “Iron Curtain” along the bloc’s borders with Russia and Belarus.

Some Alleged Russian Drones Then Veered Into Polish Airspace Right Afterwards

Right after the event above, some alleged Russian drones veered into Polish airspace, which Russia denied in totality while Poland insisted it was a deliberate provocation. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed in late September that the incident was actually orchestrated by Ukraine. This analysis here takes a middle ground between these narrative extremes by arguing that it was an accident due to NATO jamming ahead of the then-upcoming Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2025 drills in Belarus.

The Polish Foreign Minister Proposed A No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine In Response

Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, who represents Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal-globalist government that’s at odds with conservative-nationalist Nawrocki, proposed after this suspicious drone incident that Poland impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Nawrocki didn’t go along with that since it would risk another Polish-Russian War, thus contradicting the spirit of his earlier mentioned pledge about not deploying troops to Ukraine, but it still shows that some deep state forces have a different agenda.

The Polish Deep State Tried To Manipulate Nawrocki Into War With Russia

It soon thereafter turned out that the damage which a home incurred during this incident was due to a Polish missile, not a Russian drone like Tusk’s government told the UNSC during an emergency meeting, but neither Nawrocki nor his National Security Bureau found out about this till that media leak. As explained here, “The Polish Deep State Tried To Manipulate The President Into War With Russia”, but he refused to be drawn into this trap by authorizing the no-fly zone that Sikorski proposed in response.

Poland Decided To Participate In NATO’s “Operation Eastern Sentry” Instead

Nawrocki couldn’t ignore what just happened regardless of whoever was really behind it and irrespective of their reasons so he decided to have Poland participate in NATO’s “Operation Eastern Sentry” instead. This ongoing operation is aimed at strengthening the bloc’s eastern air defenses against drones and jets. While seemingly innocuous, it could possibly be exploited by subversive deep state elements to provoke a crisis with Russia if its aerial assets are shot at on the pretext of them violating the bloc’s airspace.

Tusk & Nawrocki Agreed On The Need To Intercept Russian Aerial Assets Over Poland

Despite being rivals, Tusk and Nawrocki agreed on the need to intercept Russian aerial assets over Poland, but there was nuance to their words. The first spoke about them in general but advised caution when the legal situation is less clear while the second responded about drones when asked about whether he’d authorize this for jets. If Tusk’s coalition amends the law to allow Poland to shoot without prior NATO or EU approval, then his deep state allies might provoke a crisis behind Nawrocki’s back.

Poland Also Clinched A Drone Warfare Cooperation Agreement With Ukraine

The other tangible outcome of the alleged Russian drone incident was that Poland clinched a drone warfare cooperation agreement with Ukraine that’ll indirectly expand the EU’s “drone wall” to that country’s easternmost frontier with all that entails for associated NATO influence there as well. The consequence is that Russia might now be even more reluctant to reach a compromise with Ukraine than before since it now knows that its foes’ military-technical influence will extend up to its new borders.

Its Industrial Development Agency Wants A Railway To Odessa & A Port There Too

Earlier in the month but lost amidst the drama brought about by the alleged Russian drone incident, the new chief of Poland’s Industrial Development Agency disclosed that his planned international department will consider financing a railway to Odessa and leasing a port there too. It was assessed here that any progress on those plans would advance Poland’s envisaged revival of its long-lost Great Power status but also dangerously revive the historical Polish-Russian rivalry in Ukraine as well.

Poland Briefly Closed Its Border With Belarus At The Cost Of EU-Chinese Trade

The earlier-mentioned Russian-Belarusian Zapad 2025 drills served as the pretext for Poland to briefly close its border with Belarus across which €25 billion (or 3.7%) of EU-Chinese trade is conducted. While this might not seem all that significant, especially since the decision was reversely shortly afterwards (reportedly at China’s and the EU’s requests), it highlights how Poland will act unilaterally, including at its partners’ expense. This policy could have very serious implications for NATO-Russian tensions.

Nawrocki Proposed That Germany Partially Fund Poland’s Rapid Militarization

Poland already has NATO’s third-largest army and spends more of its GDP on defense than any other member, the US included, yet Nawrocki proposed during his trip to Germany that it fund his country’s militarization as a form of reparations for World War II. What matters at this point isn’t whether or not Germany will comply, which it would probably do if their shared US ally demands this, but that Poland wants to militarize even more than it already has and wants the EU’s leader to foot some of the bill.

He Also Wants To Host French Nukes & Possibly Develop Poland’s Own One Day

Nawrocki also visited France during the same trip as his one to Germany and reaffirmed to local media that Poland not only wants to host French nukes but possibly develop its own one day. His country is far away from following in Iran’s reported footsteps, but it could much sooner host French nukes, though that depends on President Emmanuel Macron’s strategic calculations. In any case, Nawrocki’s statements of intent shouldn’t be ignored, and it’s certain that they spiked Russia’s threat perception of Poland.

Poland & Sweden Held Their First-Ever Joint Military Exercise In The Baltic

The military pact that Poland and Sweden signed at the start of September quickly turned into their first-ever joint military exercise in the Baltic. Neither boasts a big navy but they could still increase theirs in the future and cooperate more closely together to further their shared goal of containing Russia there. This also represents the de facto expansion of Poland’s “Three Seas Initiative”-centric sphere of influence deeper into Scandinavia per the foreign policy vision that Nawrocki declared in his inaugural speech.

Reports Swirled That Ukraine Is Plotting A False Flag Drone Provocation Against Poland

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova amplified Hungarian media reports at the end of the month alleging that Ukraine is plotting a false flag drone provocation against logistics hubs in Poland for the purpose of dragging the country into war with Russia. Its alleged motives ominously mirror what Duda revealed about Zelensky’s as far back as November 2022’s Przewodow incident so these reports should be taken very seriously by Nawrocki.

SVR Then Claimed That Ukraine & Poland Are Cooking Up A Ground Provocation In Poland

The aforementioned reports were then given weight by SVR’s subsequent one alleging that Ukraine is cooking up a ground provocation in Poland in collusion with the latter’s intelligence services. That claim was constructively critiqued here, which assessed that it’s unrealistic to imagine that Nawrocki would be in on it given how resistant he’s proven to be to mission creep, but it can’t be ruled out that subversive deep state elements could be involved in a desperate attempt to manipulate him into war with Russia.

Nawrocki Declared That He’s Ready To Talk With Putin If Poland’s Security Requires It

While describing Trump as “the only leader of the free world who can engage with Vladimir Putin”, Nawrocki still didn’t rule out talking with Putin if Poland’s security requires it when asked by a journalist about this scenario. It doesn’t mean that he has any such plans, but it still speaks to his comparative pragmatism vis-à-vis the Central, Eastern, and nowadays even Northern European countries over which Poland envisages expanding its influence in the future through the “Three Seas Initiative”.

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As can be seen from the nearly 20 dramatic developments described above, September 2025 was by far Poland’s most eventful month since the end of communism. The common denominator is the progress being made on reviving Poland’s long-lost status as a Great Power as proven by its increasingly central role in the region. This suggests that the resultant revival of the Polish-Russian rivalry will unfold across Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe as opposed to remaining concentrated in Ukraine like before.