Direct Western intervention in the conflict is now arguably turning into a fait accompli, it’s just a question of how Russia will respond and whether the US will then be pulled into mission creep.
Si Vis Bellum, Para Bellum. They are really asking for it. IMO, Russia has no option but to hunt them down and destroy them. I get more worried every day that this is recklessly spinning out of control.
hostages could be a magic bullet for russia. could a commando raid on odessa liberate some pollacks? :) bargaining chips to put a lid on drones? i fear for russia now. drones are like flies. and ukrs love killing civilians.
I have to wonder if one of the cards in Russia’s hand is finally cutting off all exports of gas and oil to Europe. Winter is coming, and it’ll be a mighty cold one for Europe without Russian gas and fuel oil. Not to mention all those military vehicles that need petrol to run. Ukraine attacking Russia’s oil fields and refineries with drones gives them the perfect excuse to just turn off the tap.
This has almost no chance of happening for many reasons, of which here are three:
1. It would probably affect most the countries that are "on Russia's side", like Hungary for example
2. It would very much upset Turkey, who probably makes a lot of money transferring that energy to Europe
3. Russia's elite very much prioritize commercial ties with Europe. I'm not going to get into all the reasons for this, but have you noticed they still call them their "European partners" even in the middle of a direct war with them?
It's not like Germans like to be slaves. It's simply that their mainstream media are completely captured. In the USA, you have some diversity in form of Fox News, AMC and talk radio. There is almost none of it in Germany.
Even taking that as given it works, and with barely a peep of protest from germans.
Fact is, more than any beating, a dog fears abandonment. Europeans are much the same way.
Yes, they like their status as slaves. Europeans like to tell themselves that they are the relatively pampered house slaves, unlike the field slaves. Didn't none other than Borrell say something about a europe as a "garden" and contrasted that garden with the "jungle"?
We live in a democracy. We seriously believe that. And that's why we dutifully take part in referendums. But we have absolutely no say in what really happens. This is becoming increasingly obvious. We are subjects of naked despotism. and believe we are free.
Democracy doesn't mean much if all the mainstream media are captured by what Curtis Yarvin calls the Cathedral. Then you just look at the government efficiency in different countries of the West and compare them to Russia and China.
There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution
They were a drug that allow to maintain western people in servitude those last centuries: racism.
USA with black people, natives and Chicanos, Europeans with colonized peoples, those systems were terribly oppressive but the idea that all folks of a people even the most poor and miserable, was supérieur of serf people and equal with the richest of his people against a guy of a serf people.
That was national cohesion in all western civilisation for several centuries. In the 60's , Europe lost its last colonies and official racial segregation ended in USA.
People needed a new drug.
The problem that Huxley didn't know was that a drug never last. There is a time where you have to grow the dose and it destruct you. And what drug do good have a price much more expensive for society.
1: I'm not sure at all that West is a monolithic entity.
2: I'm not sure that all West don't fear no more Russia
3: I'm not sure that those who don't fear Russia no more are right in believing it. Russia is not Hezbollah or Iran.
4: I don't know were and how Russia is supposed to bleed to weakness. Can you tell me?
5: I have different ideas of why Russians can seem unready but I wouldn't bet the fate of my children and grand children on one of them.
6: behind the lunatics who act restlessly, there are oligarchs and in History, lunatics are allowed to act till oligarchy say "stop". I can easily imagine a crazy dumb politician asshole risk the fate of humanity. But there are very very very wealthy people who own together more than 70% of the total world wealth.
About 10000 families. What do you want that these people want a war that could kill them, those they love, destroy a big part or all of their wealth, and risk to destroy a system which works for them?
Ok, zealous politician asshole or lunatic nihilist politician asshole who think they will be rewarded for their zeale can destroy the world. He own nothing or not very much. But folks who manage thousands of billions dollars wealth.... Seriously.
In the WW1, all economical establishment had big interest in this war. Idem for the WW2.
1. Much like WWI, those who don't go along with the consensus will face consequences.
2. If the West fears Russia, they sure don't act like it. Pretend any country were to do to the United States half what has been done to Russia. What would happen? Why does nobody else pull a stunt like that? Because they fear American power.
3 lm Our rulers obviously think differently.
4. The hope is that, following a short sharp defeat, Putin will be deposed and Russia dismembered.
5. Once again, nobody of influence and authority cares what you or I think or want.
6. Actually, the oligrchic interests didn't do well out of wwI at all. Read Professor Adam Tooze "The Deluge".
I ask you if you think that the westerners which don't fear Russia, don't fear them because they think that Russia is to weak to come in war or if they think that Russia will not dare coming in war.
Russia will pay an extreme price if they do not take Odessa and the Ukraine Black Sea coastal area. It is an open territory for sabotage, weapon delivery and intrusion from the Black Sea and from Romania as well. At the same time the Russian population in Odessa, Transnistria, Moldova and Eastern Romania will be also compromised, attacked and is already abused by the local friends of NATO. The NATO troops will likely hide in the city of Odessa because they will use the large Russian minority group there as hostages for shield to avoid Russian attacks. The only way Russia can stabilize the military situation there now is taking the less than 200 miles of Ukraine Black Sea section and this would be a major step toward a Russian victory as well.
We can think that Bordachev and Loukianov will take their flute and play to Poutine that it doesn't matter and that the important is to keep open the possibility of trading with everybody and having good relations with neighbours and that Ukraine, Moldavia and Baltes must learn to leave by themselves without the help of Russia.
Russia already agreed to this scenario months ago—in late February, to be precise—when Trump disclosed that Putin promised not to oppose NATO troop deployments (“European peacekeepers”) in Ukraine. Now Witkoff followed up by revealing that Putin agreed to de facto “Article-V” arrangements with Ukraine. All that ensues is thus a fait accompli for Russia that both sides approved in advance. The division of Ukraine into Russian and Western sectors is thus accomplished. Given its restraint, Russia is unlikely to target NATO forces now.
If you gave the money that this conflict costs on both sides to the people at the top so they can buy mansions and yachts, everyone would be far better off. The leadership of humanity are collectively out of their minds.
I believe the UK and France have previously deployed troops to Odessa (certainly the Brits have been there from the start), and Russia has already struck them. The only difference to come will be if they're acknowledged by their home country to be there, and if a significant strike is admitted to. And that depends on the confidence of those nations that the US will intervene on their behalf.
Hit the British and French hard with a couple of missiles and say there are plenty more where they came from. Both of their governments are on the verge of collapse anyway, and neither the British nor French people want a war with Russia.
Neither the British nor the French people were consulted about sending troops to Ukraine, either.
As for Trump, remember TACO--Trump Always Chickens Out. Better than all of the above, use the FSB the old-fashioned way, steal the Epstein Files and leak them to the Gray Zone.
Si Vis Bellum, Para Bellum. They are really asking for it. IMO, Russia has no option but to hunt them down and destroy them. I get more worried every day that this is recklessly spinning out of control.
So what has Russia been waiting for all this time?
I agree. What if Russia acted like Israel or even Yemen and shot
Down all spy planes plants manufacturing arms for Ukraine. They want war? Give it to them Russia and quit being a pussy because you’ll pay later.
1) maybe they really are not there. 2) Maybe they are already "offed," but Russia won't make it public for obvious reasons.
More likely, Russia really really really is desperate to avoid war and just wants this all to go away.
True, they do want to avoid war, but they know none of it is going away, ergo, at some point...
Honestly, judging from the passivity and waffling the Kremlin shows and has shown, I am not convinced.
We are finished with this.
they captured some british officers near kherson a month ago. were they returned?
Ah, yes, the "battlefield tourists". Nope, still in custody :)
hostages could be a magic bullet for russia. could a commando raid on odessa liberate some pollacks? :) bargaining chips to put a lid on drones? i fear for russia now. drones are like flies. and ukrs love killing civilians.
They didn't capture anything. Wishful thinking, that was all.
stare the warmongers down. gloves are off.
I have to wonder if one of the cards in Russia’s hand is finally cutting off all exports of gas and oil to Europe. Winter is coming, and it’ll be a mighty cold one for Europe without Russian gas and fuel oil. Not to mention all those military vehicles that need petrol to run. Ukraine attacking Russia’s oil fields and refineries with drones gives them the perfect excuse to just turn off the tap.
This has almost no chance of happening for many reasons, of which here are three:
1. It would probably affect most the countries that are "on Russia's side", like Hungary for example
2. It would very much upset Turkey, who probably makes a lot of money transferring that energy to Europe
3. Russia's elite very much prioritize commercial ties with Europe. I'm not going to get into all the reasons for this, but have you noticed they still call them their "European partners" even in the middle of a direct war with them?
Russian dithering and indecision have led to this.
No, the West is not desperate. They have lost all fear of Russia and smell blood.
As someone who no longer lives in Germany, I look at Germany
with increasing disconcertment, as if I were observing a suicide cult!
It's not like Germans like to be slaves. It's simply that their mainstream media are completely captured. In the USA, you have some diversity in form of Fox News, AMC and talk radio. There is almost none of it in Germany.
Like in France.
Oui
Even taking that as given it works, and with barely a peep of protest from germans.
Fact is, more than any beating, a dog fears abandonment. Europeans are much the same way.
Yes, they like their status as slaves. Europeans like to tell themselves that they are the relatively pampered house slaves, unlike the field slaves. Didn't none other than Borrell say something about a europe as a "garden" and contrasted that garden with the "jungle"?
Europeans like being slaves.
We are slaves and don't realize it.....
We live in a democracy. We seriously believe that. And that's why we dutifully take part in referendums. But we have absolutely no say in what really happens. This is becoming increasingly obvious. We are subjects of naked despotism. and believe we are free.
Democracy doesn't mean much if all the mainstream media are captured by what Curtis Yarvin calls the Cathedral. Then you just look at the government efficiency in different countries of the West and compare them to Russia and China.
There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it, because they will be distracted from any desire to rebel by propaganda or brainwashing, or brainwashing enhanced by pharmacological methods. And this seems to be the final revolution
Aldous Huxley
Yes but Huxley didn't see something himself.
They were a drug that allow to maintain western people in servitude those last centuries: racism.
USA with black people, natives and Chicanos, Europeans with colonized peoples, those systems were terribly oppressive but the idea that all folks of a people even the most poor and miserable, was supérieur of serf people and equal with the richest of his people against a guy of a serf people.
That was national cohesion in all western civilisation for several centuries. In the 60's , Europe lost its last colonies and official racial segregation ended in USA.
People needed a new drug.
The problem that Huxley didn't know was that a drug never last. There is a time where you have to grow the dose and it destruct you. And what drug do good have a price much more expensive for society.
Our society has produced a “lost generation” that has lost all hope....
You only spoke of a generation of the golden billion. And they are right to have no hope: golden million is over.
Exactly. Russia needs to quit being pussies
1: I'm not sure at all that West is a monolithic entity.
2: I'm not sure that all West don't fear no more Russia
3: I'm not sure that those who don't fear Russia no more are right in believing it. Russia is not Hezbollah or Iran.
4: I don't know were and how Russia is supposed to bleed to weakness. Can you tell me?
5: I have different ideas of why Russians can seem unready but I wouldn't bet the fate of my children and grand children on one of them.
6: behind the lunatics who act restlessly, there are oligarchs and in History, lunatics are allowed to act till oligarchy say "stop". I can easily imagine a crazy dumb politician asshole risk the fate of humanity. But there are very very very wealthy people who own together more than 70% of the total world wealth.
About 10000 families. What do you want that these people want a war that could kill them, those they love, destroy a big part or all of their wealth, and risk to destroy a system which works for them?
Ok, zealous politician asshole or lunatic nihilist politician asshole who think they will be rewarded for their zeale can destroy the world. He own nothing or not very much. But folks who manage thousands of billions dollars wealth.... Seriously.
In the WW1, all economical establishment had big interest in this war. Idem for the WW2.
I don't see this time.
1. Much like WWI, those who don't go along with the consensus will face consequences.
2. If the West fears Russia, they sure don't act like it. Pretend any country were to do to the United States half what has been done to Russia. What would happen? Why does nobody else pull a stunt like that? Because they fear American power.
3 lm Our rulers obviously think differently.
4. The hope is that, following a short sharp defeat, Putin will be deposed and Russia dismembered.
5. Once again, nobody of influence and authority cares what you or I think or want.
6. Actually, the oligrchic interests didn't do well out of wwI at all. Read Professor Adam Tooze "The Deluge".
Ok, I will read this.
But in France, I can assure you that some families took a huge advantage of those wars.
About point 2: about peoples which don't fear others, there is two kind:
1 those who think this country can't go total fight
2 those who bet this country won't dare total fight.
In what category do you make your Westerner?
I am not sure what you are asking.
I ask you if you think that the westerners which don't fear Russia, don't fear them because they think that Russia is to weak to come in war or if they think that Russia will not dare coming in war.
It doesn't matter which.
A little list of case when a country didn't fear another:
USA Huthis 2024
USA Afghanistan 2001
Hitler USSR 1941
Mussolini Yugoslavia 1941 and Greece
Japon USA 1941
Hitler UK 1939
France Prussia 1870
Confederation USA 1861
France Russia 1812
France Spain 1807
Austria French revolution 1792
Spain Holland 1566
France England 1415
France England 1346
And I'm sure that there is much more of them.
Is that you, Paul Craig?
They are psychopaths who want to plunge their populations into misery...
A society that systematically refuses to recognize that its physical survival is
physical survival is immediately in question and which does not take any steps
to save itself cannot be described as mentally healthy.
The only thing that matters is that it works.
What ever happened with the story of the two UK officers who were captured by a DRG raid around Odessa?
It was a fairy tale.
True or not you'll never know. Russia usually keep this kind of thing undercover.
There are proper ways to deal with polite gentlemen who have different opinions. There are different ways to deal with rabid dogs.
You can shoot them or you car tell to their master that you'll shoot him if he don't call back his dog. Now.
Russia will pay an extreme price if they do not take Odessa and the Ukraine Black Sea coastal area. It is an open territory for sabotage, weapon delivery and intrusion from the Black Sea and from Romania as well. At the same time the Russian population in Odessa, Transnistria, Moldova and Eastern Romania will be also compromised, attacked and is already abused by the local friends of NATO. The NATO troops will likely hide in the city of Odessa because they will use the large Russian minority group there as hostages for shield to avoid Russian attacks. The only way Russia can stabilize the military situation there now is taking the less than 200 miles of Ukraine Black Sea section and this would be a major step toward a Russian victory as well.
So what has Russia been waiting for all this time?
They were waiting for an expert leader like you to take over the operation.
Since all you have is snark, we can conclude that they either couldn't or lacked the stomach to do so.
I literally LOLed at this comment.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warning is a kind of an idle talk. To kill enemies or keep silence !
It looks like Everybody knows we are suppressed!
We can think that Bordachev and Loukianov will take their flute and play to Poutine that it doesn't matter and that the important is to keep open the possibility of trading with everybody and having good relations with neighbours and that Ukraine, Moldavia and Baltes must learn to leave by themselves without the help of Russia.
Russia already agreed to this scenario months ago—in late February, to be precise—when Trump disclosed that Putin promised not to oppose NATO troop deployments (“European peacekeepers”) in Ukraine. Now Witkoff followed up by revealing that Putin agreed to de facto “Article-V” arrangements with Ukraine. All that ensues is thus a fait accompli for Russia that both sides approved in advance. The division of Ukraine into Russian and Western sectors is thus accomplished. Given its restraint, Russia is unlikely to target NATO forces now.
If you gave the money that this conflict costs on both sides to the people at the top so they can buy mansions and yachts, everyone would be far better off. The leadership of humanity are collectively out of their minds.
Like to see the British and French get obliterated once and for all. They are like vermin that spread their disease on other territories.
So much the worse for them.
I believe the UK and France have previously deployed troops to Odessa (certainly the Brits have been there from the start), and Russia has already struck them. The only difference to come will be if they're acknowledged by their home country to be there, and if a significant strike is admitted to. And that depends on the confidence of those nations that the US will intervene on their behalf.
Thanks for your great work!
We've shared your link on 'The Stacks'
https://askeptic.substack.com/p/the-stacks
Hit the British and French hard with a couple of missiles and say there are plenty more where they came from. Both of their governments are on the verge of collapse anyway, and neither the British nor French people want a war with Russia.
Neither the British nor the French people were consulted about sending troops to Ukraine, either.
As for Trump, remember TACO--Trump Always Chickens Out. Better than all of the above, use the FSB the old-fashioned way, steal the Epstein Files and leak them to the Gray Zone.