What we are looking at is a whole stable of Trojan Horses Made in USA, Trump is aiming to achieve two things:
1, Secure the legalized entry of US personal into Ukraine and it does not matter under what label. They will be miners, cow doctors, saxophone players and synchronized swimmers as far as their trade but they will be ALL CIA, FBI, etc.
2, The flow of weapons must be kept up to make sure Ukraine does not go into a full collapse. An act of face saving plus some profit making at the same time. Even the war can go on longer maybe with a somewhat lowered intensity. The main thing is that the door opened to the Russian borders in Ukraine must be kept open for future exploitation.
Russia is looking for a way out of this trap so we might see some substantial compromises. Still, if they decide to make a move for Odessa while these negotiations are going on, I would not be surprised at all.
I'm personally skeptical that they'll make a move on Odessa. They haven't thus far over the past three years and talk about capturing/liberating/etc. that historically Russian city has nowadays in my opinion become more of a psy-op than a credible scenario.
Don't get me wrong, I personally consider Odessa to be an historically Russian city and would be elated if it returned to Russia, I'm just burned out by all the false expectations that top Russian-friendly influencers created and which never resulted in anything thus far at all.
I also think that Odessa is a long shot and it greatly depends on the condition of the UAF. The Russian side seems to be very calculating and careful in this whole operation. This war was full of surprises from the early stages already. From a historical view it was a surprise that Ukraine was able to carry it so far. And so was the hard struggle the South presented against the North in America in 1861. It seems it all comes down now to the level of resilience of (I hear) an aging Ukraine Army and the quantity and quality of hardware NATO is willing/able to pump in there.
It’s pretty hard to get an understanding of quite what’s going on with this ‘mineral resources deal’, and what value President Trump thinks he’s going to get out of it, beyond some sort of bragging rights.
Since nobody is going to be developing anything in Ukraine until there’s a peace agreement with the Russians, I guess that gives Trump an incentive to keep plodding forward….
From a Western perspective, this amended deal may reflect Trump's strategy to pressure Zelensky into peace negotiations without offering firm security guarantees. It also establishes a new framework for maintaining long-term influence over Ukraine by linking military aid to economic interests. However, the idea of fully demilitarizing Ukraine has been unrealistic since 2014. At best, only limited demilitarization in specific regions might be negotiable. This means that Russia may need to recalibrate its strategic objectives if it hopes to reach a sustainable peace agreement
The U.S. isn't interested in any peace agreement with Russia, China or any new JCPOA with Iran.
The U.S. government has a bunch of sadists driving the world over the cliff. 2 trillion dollars for more nuclear weapons is sheer lunacy but that's where Trump and his neocons are taking all of us.
Russia will eventually have no choice other than to push the button because it will evenyually be cornered. That's the goal.
I suspect the value of the minerals under Ukraine has been grossly exaggerated to lure the US into another forever war, otherwise both Ukrainians and (previously Russians) would have exploited the deposits long ago.
Using the word, sincerity, in connection with Trump is a total contradiction. Just like it was for Trump to threaten to walkaway. He never had any intentions of walking away. And his dogged pursuit of this minerals deal proved that.
Trump is a liar. A trickster. He doesn't want peace and he's not leaving NATO. Trump is such a hypocrite and I don't understand why Putin couldn't see through the B.S. Trump was sending his way.
This is on Putin. Putin dropped the ball again. He's snatched defeat from victory.
Ukraine will forever be an open wound in Russia's side. Putin waited too long before going into Ukraine and he didn't use enough force when he finally did go in.
Peace talks were never meant to succeed. They were a diversionary tactic. Trump was never shy about the minerals deal being enough of a security guarantee for Ukraine. Putin should've been listening and have abandoned the talks immediately. I can't believe he was foolish enough to congratulate Trump on signing the deal.
It all looks very bad for Russian side at the moment, but maybe things are not quite what they appear. USA at this moment looks strong, but perhaps perception/illusion has always been its greatest strength.
What is interesting is speculating about how Ukrainians who are still in UA are going to feel about all this in the slightly longer run. A country completely on US and EU life support, with agriculture, commodities and manufacturing largely owned by foreigners, who have also been running its politicians and military to various degrees and with mixed success.
Recently via the NYT the UA military command has already been thrown under the bus. I don't think that went down well in UA.
Then you have millions of Ukrainians who fled. If i think of them here in my country, having quickly settled, working humble jobs in supermarkets etc, you wonder if they want to go back. Our employers certainly don't want them to leave - as long as the economy is hot of course.
But those who will return, especially the men of fighting age (and UA has some peculiar ideas about fighting age) are going to have interesting discussions with those who remained (and fought). Are they going to have the same access to western aid? UA gov jobs? Housing? Or will they have join to at the end of the cue?
Trump made a major mistake here in pursuit of quick victory in his first 100 days and in saving face - he wanted to claim an honorable withdrawal from Ukraine when there was none to begin with. As worded, the agreement is neutral to irrelevant. But unless Trump has a real wake-up, the deep-state creatures will drag his mind toward saving face for the agreement he signs. Russia does not need to be hostile to Trump, but they have to recognize the fact that the limited intellect of DJT puts a tight upper bound on how much he can achieve in worldwide peace. Russians have to trust themselves. The Russian comment of "Trump has broken the back of Elensky's government" is an attempt to make Trump look better than he is. If Trump does not turn back to deal with US domestic problems, he will face a disastrous mid-term election. The American public is not only short-sighted but also lacks patience. There was a real need to rush for some victories in the first 100 days, but Trump should have focused his energy on the domestic side.
Well, it's officially Trump's war now. The entire thing was a Western blunder and now he is "smart" enough to make this his war, instead of getting out and blaming it on Biden.
I am also curious how the elites in Brussels are seeing this. While the US gets to weaken a geopolitical opponent and gets access to their minerals.... the EU gets nothing. I bet the Americans will ask Europe to pay to rebuild Ukraine. So, in the end Europe will get. nothing but a hefty bill.
This deal obviously puts US “forces” In Ukraine. Would Polish peacekeepers appease Putin? It isn’t any from the west in theory all though we know how Poland is being courted by the US and France. Putin also sees the unlocking of frozen funds and new US money that could come in to Russia most likely booming its economy. I have to believe Zelensky will be out once peace is agreed to. Putin wants him gone and I think the US agrees with him there. He’s grifted enough from the US at this point. Enough to buy a suit for the Pope’s funeral but I guess he forgot to pack it. The EU is the loser here which is a boon for the world.
My own reading of the minerals deal is that it would preclude Europeans from capitalizing on Ukrainian resources. From whatever is left after Russia is finished with Ukraine.
Could Trump be handing the Europeans here the rope to hang themselves? Because since a ceasefire is unworkable, Ukraine will have the war material to continue fighting, and therefore, as Russia continues to advance, Ukraine won't have to concede defeat for the time being. Europe will wither and die of economic and political collapse, whilst hoping that eventually it can finally draw the US in direct conflict with Russia.
Just when we thought a real peace deal might be achievable, western greed and ego intervened. I remember Trump saying he would end the war in 24 hours. All he had to do was stop all aid to Ukraine, and inform to Europeans to do the same (otw the US would pull out of NATO and stop supplying them with weapons systems like the F35).
Once Russia pushes the AFU to the Dnieper, it will be a cleanup operation. Putin will achieve his aims and Russia will end up with the minerals.
Trump was willing to say anything in order to get elected. He also said he will deport ALL illegals. Realistic estimates are up around 30 million of them and that would mean he is supposed to deport 20,500 a day for four years. He is already setting himself up as a failure there. Some of his acts clearly show that he wants to throw the midterm elections to create an excuse for not delivering. His repulsive support for the murderers of tens of thousands of Palestinian children has the potential to cut into his midterm results. A lot of Americans feel very-very sick from that move.
The chorus of comments about Trump's betrayal of peace is nauseating. Fortunately, it's just noise. You don't have to be a MAGAtard to see that now the Eurocommis are now definitively cut out of the peace negotiations and the US having made no security commitments at all has made out handsomely with "legal rights" to the mineral wealth, while Ukraine gets some token military aid. These "rights" substitute the US into Ukraine in place of the UK/EU and thus not only give the US a position from which to negotiate the settlement but also -- most importantly -- cut out the Eurocommis from the peace negotiations. This was a win for peace. Do the commenter forget the Euros are not negotiationcable? After all they started the war, are continuing it now, and need to continue it at all costs for political survival. This was their loss. Trump did not betray peace. Neocon Witcoff has done his job and has now been put out to pasture as US Ambassador to the UN. If Trump hadn't demoted him, then it might be reasonable to suspect there was some mechanism in the minerals deal that could pull the US into Ukraine in the Hail Mary hope to trip NATO Article 5 and have the US honor it. But Witcoff is out.
Thanks. As I was writing that I was thinking, "Isn't Witkoff Trump's righthand man or do I have that confused?" The name Waltz didn't come to mind immediately.
It also means Russia miscalculated. They hoped they could negotiate with someone reasonable in the West but it's clear now there are no reasonable people in the West, only dilettantes, war mongers and wannabes.
It all looks quite dire for Russian Federation at the moment with USA economically/militarily slipping into what has become its colony. I wonder if the agreement is the 34 page one alluded to earlier. This is a most bizarre move given that Zelensky is no longer Ukraine's legitimate leader according to its own constitution. I realize no one cares about such fineries these days as no one steps up to enforce any laws or norms at the moment. However, the SMO is ongoing & territory is being taken, so nothing can be determined as "belonging" to anyone just yet.
We all know the "minerals deal" is just a pretext for USA foothold in Ukraine with guarantees for Blackrock bids that were sold by Zelensky months ago. It puts USA in direct face-off with Russia, even more blatantly than NATO forces. It's going to be time for Russian leadership to gather courage & find a way to expel this encroachment. This might be the final step needed for Russia to rid itself of western domination.
For resource extraction and ore processing one needs people, private capital intensive equipment investments and energy. And Americans say these will be protected by US AD. All in short supply.
I wonder what private entities will step in? And placing US AD on areas that have nothing to do with military operations advantages Russia, no? If there are military operations around those AD system and support become legitimate targets, no?
What we are looking at is a whole stable of Trojan Horses Made in USA, Trump is aiming to achieve two things:
1, Secure the legalized entry of US personal into Ukraine and it does not matter under what label. They will be miners, cow doctors, saxophone players and synchronized swimmers as far as their trade but they will be ALL CIA, FBI, etc.
2, The flow of weapons must be kept up to make sure Ukraine does not go into a full collapse. An act of face saving plus some profit making at the same time. Even the war can go on longer maybe with a somewhat lowered intensity. The main thing is that the door opened to the Russian borders in Ukraine must be kept open for future exploitation.
Russia is looking for a way out of this trap so we might see some substantial compromises. Still, if they decide to make a move for Odessa while these negotiations are going on, I would not be surprised at all.
I'm personally skeptical that they'll make a move on Odessa. They haven't thus far over the past three years and talk about capturing/liberating/etc. that historically Russian city has nowadays in my opinion become more of a psy-op than a credible scenario.
Don't get me wrong, I personally consider Odessa to be an historically Russian city and would be elated if it returned to Russia, I'm just burned out by all the false expectations that top Russian-friendly influencers created and which never resulted in anything thus far at all.
I also think that Odessa is a long shot and it greatly depends on the condition of the UAF. The Russian side seems to be very calculating and careful in this whole operation. This war was full of surprises from the early stages already. From a historical view it was a surprise that Ukraine was able to carry it so far. And so was the hard struggle the South presented against the North in America in 1861. It seems it all comes down now to the level of resilience of (I hear) an aging Ukraine Army and the quantity and quality of hardware NATO is willing/able to pump in there.
I hear you. I bet it can only be taken once the Ukrainian army collapses. Not sure when or if that will ever happen...
Thanks for this.
It’s pretty hard to get an understanding of quite what’s going on with this ‘mineral resources deal’, and what value President Trump thinks he’s going to get out of it, beyond some sort of bragging rights.
Since nobody is going to be developing anything in Ukraine until there’s a peace agreement with the Russians, I guess that gives Trump an incentive to keep plodding forward….
From a Western perspective, this amended deal may reflect Trump's strategy to pressure Zelensky into peace negotiations without offering firm security guarantees. It also establishes a new framework for maintaining long-term influence over Ukraine by linking military aid to economic interests. However, the idea of fully demilitarizing Ukraine has been unrealistic since 2014. At best, only limited demilitarization in specific regions might be negotiable. This means that Russia may need to recalibrate its strategic objectives if it hopes to reach a sustainable peace agreement
Stop kidding yourself. If Trump wanted to pressure Zelenskii into anything, he need only threaten to turn off Starlink.
Just like I write "west perspective".
I am not sure what you are saying here.
The U.S. isn't interested in any peace agreement with Russia, China or any new JCPOA with Iran.
The U.S. government has a bunch of sadists driving the world over the cliff. 2 trillion dollars for more nuclear weapons is sheer lunacy but that's where Trump and his neocons are taking all of us.
Russia will eventually have no choice other than to push the button because it will evenyually be cornered. That's the goal.
All out war.
I suspect the value of the minerals under Ukraine has been grossly exaggerated to lure the US into another forever war, otherwise both Ukrainians and (previously Russians) would have exploited the deposits long ago.
Of course the minerals are not as advertised. It doesn't matter, as long as the money and weapons keep flowing.
Using the word, sincerity, in connection with Trump is a total contradiction. Just like it was for Trump to threaten to walkaway. He never had any intentions of walking away. And his dogged pursuit of this minerals deal proved that.
Trump is a liar. A trickster. He doesn't want peace and he's not leaving NATO. Trump is such a hypocrite and I don't understand why Putin couldn't see through the B.S. Trump was sending his way.
This is on Putin. Putin dropped the ball again. He's snatched defeat from victory.
Ukraine will forever be an open wound in Russia's side. Putin waited too long before going into Ukraine and he didn't use enough force when he finally did go in.
Peace talks were never meant to succeed. They were a diversionary tactic. Trump was never shy about the minerals deal being enough of a security guarantee for Ukraine. Putin should've been listening and have abandoned the talks immediately. I can't believe he was foolish enough to congratulate Trump on signing the deal.
It all looks very bad for Russian side at the moment, but maybe things are not quite what they appear. USA at this moment looks strong, but perhaps perception/illusion has always been its greatest strength.
What is interesting is speculating about how Ukrainians who are still in UA are going to feel about all this in the slightly longer run. A country completely on US and EU life support, with agriculture, commodities and manufacturing largely owned by foreigners, who have also been running its politicians and military to various degrees and with mixed success.
Recently via the NYT the UA military command has already been thrown under the bus. I don't think that went down well in UA.
Then you have millions of Ukrainians who fled. If i think of them here in my country, having quickly settled, working humble jobs in supermarkets etc, you wonder if they want to go back. Our employers certainly don't want them to leave - as long as the economy is hot of course.
But those who will return, especially the men of fighting age (and UA has some peculiar ideas about fighting age) are going to have interesting discussions with those who remained (and fought). Are they going to have the same access to western aid? UA gov jobs? Housing? Or will they have join to at the end of the cue?
Nobody cares about Ukraine or Ukrainians or what Ukrainians think. Nobody in Washington, nobody in Brussels, nobody in Kiev.
Exactly.
Whatever helps you cope, or;
https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-amended-minerals-deal-will-likely/comment/113843121
Queue
Trump made a major mistake here in pursuit of quick victory in his first 100 days and in saving face - he wanted to claim an honorable withdrawal from Ukraine when there was none to begin with. As worded, the agreement is neutral to irrelevant. But unless Trump has a real wake-up, the deep-state creatures will drag his mind toward saving face for the agreement he signs. Russia does not need to be hostile to Trump, but they have to recognize the fact that the limited intellect of DJT puts a tight upper bound on how much he can achieve in worldwide peace. Russians have to trust themselves. The Russian comment of "Trump has broken the back of Elensky's government" is an attempt to make Trump look better than he is. If Trump does not turn back to deal with US domestic problems, he will face a disastrous mid-term election. The American public is not only short-sighted but also lacks patience. There was a real need to rush for some victories in the first 100 days, but Trump should have focused his energy on the domestic side.
So ... President Trump lives rent-free in your head, right? Youre not charging him rent, right?
No, President Trump's not too dumb, LOL.
I surely hope you are right.
No one in USA gov't cares about the "domestic side" of USA. That has been abundantly clear for decades.
Well, it's officially Trump's war now. The entire thing was a Western blunder and now he is "smart" enough to make this his war, instead of getting out and blaming it on Biden.
I am also curious how the elites in Brussels are seeing this. While the US gets to weaken a geopolitical opponent and gets access to their minerals.... the EU gets nothing. I bet the Americans will ask Europe to pay to rebuild Ukraine. So, in the end Europe will get. nothing but a hefty bill.
Trump is weak, stupid and easily manipulated.
This deal obviously puts US “forces” In Ukraine. Would Polish peacekeepers appease Putin? It isn’t any from the west in theory all though we know how Poland is being courted by the US and France. Putin also sees the unlocking of frozen funds and new US money that could come in to Russia most likely booming its economy. I have to believe Zelensky will be out once peace is agreed to. Putin wants him gone and I think the US agrees with him there. He’s grifted enough from the US at this point. Enough to buy a suit for the Pope’s funeral but I guess he forgot to pack it. The EU is the loser here which is a boon for the world.
My own reading of the minerals deal is that it would preclude Europeans from capitalizing on Ukrainian resources. From whatever is left after Russia is finished with Ukraine.
Could Trump be handing the Europeans here the rope to hang themselves? Because since a ceasefire is unworkable, Ukraine will have the war material to continue fighting, and therefore, as Russia continues to advance, Ukraine won't have to concede defeat for the time being. Europe will wither and die of economic and political collapse, whilst hoping that eventually it can finally draw the US in direct conflict with Russia.
Stop kidding yourself.
Just when we thought a real peace deal might be achievable, western greed and ego intervened. I remember Trump saying he would end the war in 24 hours. All he had to do was stop all aid to Ukraine, and inform to Europeans to do the same (otw the US would pull out of NATO and stop supplying them with weapons systems like the F35).
Once Russia pushes the AFU to the Dnieper, it will be a cleanup operation. Putin will achieve his aims and Russia will end up with the minerals.
Trump was willing to say anything in order to get elected. He also said he will deport ALL illegals. Realistic estimates are up around 30 million of them and that would mean he is supposed to deport 20,500 a day for four years. He is already setting himself up as a failure there. Some of his acts clearly show that he wants to throw the midterm elections to create an excuse for not delivering. His repulsive support for the murderers of tens of thousands of Palestinian children has the potential to cut into his midterm results. A lot of Americans feel very-very sick from that move.
The chorus of comments about Trump's betrayal of peace is nauseating. Fortunately, it's just noise. You don't have to be a MAGAtard to see that now the Eurocommis are now definitively cut out of the peace negotiations and the US having made no security commitments at all has made out handsomely with "legal rights" to the mineral wealth, while Ukraine gets some token military aid. These "rights" substitute the US into Ukraine in place of the UK/EU and thus not only give the US a position from which to negotiate the settlement but also -- most importantly -- cut out the Eurocommis from the peace negotiations. This was a win for peace. Do the commenter forget the Euros are not negotiationcable? After all they started the war, are continuing it now, and need to continue it at all costs for political survival. This was their loss. Trump did not betray peace. Neocon Witcoff has done his job and has now been put out to pasture as US Ambassador to the UN. If Trump hadn't demoted him, then it might be reasonable to suspect there was some mechanism in the minerals deal that could pull the US into Ukraine in the Hail Mary hope to trip NATO Article 5 and have the US honor it. But Witcoff is out.
Michael Walz has been transferred from his NSA post to UN Ambassador. It was not Witkoff. Look again.
Thanks. As I was writing that I was thinking, "Isn't Witkoff Trump's righthand man or do I have that confused?" The name Waltz didn't come to mind immediately.
It also means Russia miscalculated. They hoped they could negotiate with someone reasonable in the West but it's clear now there are no reasonable people in the West, only dilettantes, war mongers and wannabes.
It all looks quite dire for Russian Federation at the moment with USA economically/militarily slipping into what has become its colony. I wonder if the agreement is the 34 page one alluded to earlier. This is a most bizarre move given that Zelensky is no longer Ukraine's legitimate leader according to its own constitution. I realize no one cares about such fineries these days as no one steps up to enforce any laws or norms at the moment. However, the SMO is ongoing & territory is being taken, so nothing can be determined as "belonging" to anyone just yet.
We all know the "minerals deal" is just a pretext for USA foothold in Ukraine with guarantees for Blackrock bids that were sold by Zelensky months ago. It puts USA in direct face-off with Russia, even more blatantly than NATO forces. It's going to be time for Russian leadership to gather courage & find a way to expel this encroachment. This might be the final step needed for Russia to rid itself of western domination.
For resource extraction and ore processing one needs people, private capital intensive equipment investments and energy. And Americans say these will be protected by US AD. All in short supply.
I wonder what private entities will step in? And placing US AD on areas that have nothing to do with military operations advantages Russia, no? If there are military operations around those AD system and support become legitimate targets, no?
I don't understand the problem.